Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Louisiana Ragin Cajuns Final — October 3, 2026
ARSTOffense2026 regular season to dateUL
ARSTDefenseULARSTLast 10 gamesULRest & travelrest and travel
ARSTRest & travelULAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Arkansas State (1-2) visited Louisiana (2-1) on Saturday, October 3 at 8:00 PM ET.
Arkansas State has the 64th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 121st-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Louisiana has the 74th-ranked offense and the 16th-ranked defense. When Arkansas State has the ball, a 64th-ranked offense (+0.033 EPA per play) meets a 16th-ranked defense (−0.187 allowed); when Louisiana has it, a 74th-ranked offense (+0.004) meets a 121st-ranked defense (+0.232 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Arkansas State offense is at 46.1% (39th) and the Louisiana offense at 43.5% (65th). Arkansas State scores 16.0 points per game (119th) and allows 29.0 (77th); Louisiana scores 28.3 (59th) and allows 23.3 (54th).
Louisiana closed as a 5-point favorite at home against Arkansas State. The spread opened at Louisiana -5.5. The total closed 49.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Arkansas State +166, Louisiana -202) prices Arkansas State at 36% and Louisiana at 64%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Arkansas State Red Wolves 20, Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 23
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Louisiana Ragin Cajuns -5): Arkansas State Red Wolves covered.
- Combined score 43 vs the closing total of 49.5: Under.
- Louisiana Ragin Cajuns closed at -202 on the moneyline (a 64% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Arkansas State Red Wolves.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Arkansas State Red Wolves 36%, Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 64%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 0:31 — Arkansas State Red Wolves ball, 2nd & 10 at UL 21No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short middle to #10 J.Bonelli caught at UL09, for 21 yards to the UL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:31, 1ST DOWN #34 C.Van Ande…Arkansas State Red Wolves 34% → 47% (+13 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:39 — Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ball, 1st & 10 at ARST 35No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush right for 14 yards gain to the ASU21, out of bounds at ASU21 PENALTY UL Holding (#77 J.Isom) 10 yards from ASU35 to ASU45. N…Arkansas State Red Wolves 18% → 30% (+12 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:30 — Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ball, 1st & 20 at ARST 45No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush middle for 15 yards gain to the ASU30 (#5 F.Hamilton)Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 70% → 83% (+13 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:24 — Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ball, 2nd & 10 at ARST 35No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short left to #87 K.Brooks caught at ASU21, for 14 yards to the ASU21, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY ASU Offside d…Arkansas State Red Wolves 5% → 47% (+42 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ball, 2nd & 9 at ARST 20Tony Sterner 37 Yd Field GoalLouisiana Ragin Cajuns 86% → 100% (+14 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Arkansas State Red Wolves would win 52% of the time (Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 48%). The chances each team created were close to even.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.
| Arkansas State | Points added | Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| -1.6 | Passingdropbacks | +1.4 |
| -4.3 | Rushingdesigned runs | +2.8 |
| +8.5 | Explosive plays3 plays · 3 plays | +8.6 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -7.3 |
| -3.2 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +0.5 |
| +0.0 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -1.3 |
| -1.9 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 3 · 2 of 5 | +1.1 |
| -2.6 | All plays | +5.9 |
The biggest single gap: turnovers, worth about 7.3 points to Arkansas State Red Wolves. The final margin was 3.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns closed as the market favourite at 64% and won.
The line moved toward Arkansas State Red Wolves before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Arkansas State +5.5 (-108)
Arkansas State +5 (-111)
Louisiana -210 65%
Louisiana -202 64%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts102
- Completion %67.6%58th
- Passing yards837118th
- Yards per attempt8.278th
- TD–INT4–4
- Rushing yards160201st
- Season line30 carries, 160 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards211140th
- Season line16 catches, 211 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles3618th
- Attempts89
- Completion %73.0%13th
- Passing yards660172nd
- Yards per attempt7.4120th
- TD–INT2–2
- Rushing yards29557th
- Season line55 carries, 295 yds, 6 TD
- Receiving yards27565th
- Season line19 catches, 275 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles3154th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Arkansas State | Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateArkansas State offense vs Louisiana defense | 43.5%32nd | 37.3%37th |
| Early-down success rateLouisiana offense vs Arkansas State defense | 44.7%115th | 38.7%82nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateArkansas State offense vs Louisiana defense | 40.0%67th | 35.1%39th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateLouisiana offense vs Arkansas State defense | 51.4%124th | 30.6%112th |
| Explosive play rateArkansas State offense vs Louisiana defense | 8.2%35th | 4.2%11th |
| Explosive play rateLouisiana offense vs Arkansas State defense | 9.3%118th | 3.8%125th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 52.9%52nd-highest | 37.7%130th-highest |
On 3rd down Arkansas State converts 40.0% (67th) against a Louisiana defense allowing 35.1% (39th).
On 3rd down Louisiana converts 30.6% (112th) against a Arkansas State defense allowing 51.4% (124th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Arkansas State | Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Butch Jones | Michael Desormeaux |
| Tenureat this school | 6th season | 5th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 28–39 | 32–26 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 112–93 | 32–26 |
| Offensive coordinator | Garrett Altman | Tim Leger |
| Defensive coordinator | Griffin McCarley | Jim Salgado |
Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 5 times since 2021: Arkansas State won 1 and Louisiana 4.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2025 | Louisiana 34, Arkansas State 30 Louisiana won | ||
| Nov 9, 2024 | Arkansas State 19, Louisiana 55 Louisiana won | ||
| Nov 4, 2023 | Louisiana 17, Arkansas State 37 Arkansas State won | ||
| Oct 22, 2022 | Arkansas State 18, Louisiana 38 Louisiana won | ||
| Oct 21, 2021 | Louisiana 28, Arkansas State 27 Louisiana won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Arkansas State Red Wolves
- Arkansas State Red Wolves team stats
- Georgia State Panthers 32, Arkansas State Red Wolves 38 (Oct 24)
- Arkansas State Red Wolves 23, Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles 13 (Oct 17)
- South Alabama Jaguars 56, Arkansas State Red Wolves 49 (Oct 8)
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns
More NCAAF games on October 3, 2026
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- Michigan Wolverines 14, Minnesota Golden Gophers 20 (Oct 3)
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- Boston College Eagles 16, SMU Mustangs 25 (Oct 3)
- Syracuse Orange 42, UConn Huskies 41 (Oct 3)
- Stanford Cardinal 3, Wake Forest Demon Deacons 57 (Oct 3)
- Michigan State Spartans 3, Wisconsin Badgers 31 (Oct 3)
- Vanderbilt Commodores 14, Georgia Bulldogs 38 (Oct 3)
- Western Michigan Broncos 20, Buffalo Bulls 17 (Oct 3)
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