Georgia State Panthers vs Arkansas State Red Wolves Final — October 24, 2026
GASTOffense2026 regular season to dateARST
GASTDefenseARSTGASTRecent formARSTGASTHome and roadseason to dateARSTGASTLast 10 gamesARSTRest & travelrest and travel
GASTRest & travelARSTAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 7 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Georgia State (3-2) visited Arkansas State (2-4) on Saturday, October 24 at 7:00 PM ET.
Georgia State has the 47th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 84th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Arkansas State has the 57th-ranked offense and the 130th-ranked defense. When Georgia State has the ball, a 47th-ranked offense (+0.136 EPA per play) meets a 130th-ranked defense (+0.250 allowed); when Arkansas State has it, a 57th-ranked offense (+0.098) meets a 84th-ranked defense (+0.114 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Georgia State offense is at 50.9% (24th) and the Arkansas State offense at 48.4% (55th). Georgia State scores 32.0 points per game (34th) and allows 26.8 (75th); Arkansas State scores 23.3 (85th) and allows 29.8 (98th).
Georgia State is 4-2 and 5-1 against the spread; its last game was a 49-22 loss to James Madison. Arkansas State is 3-4 and 3-4 against the spread; its last game was a 23-13 win over Southern Miss.
Georgia State closed as a 2.5-point road favorite, with Arkansas State getting the points at home. The spread opened at Georgia State -1.5. The total closed at 58.5, up from 55.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Georgia State -140, Arkansas State +115) prices Georgia State at 56% and Arkansas State at 44%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Georgia State Panthers 32, Arkansas State Red Wolves 38
Arkansas State Red Wolves won by 6.
- Against the closing spread (Arkansas State Red Wolves +2.5): Arkansas State Red Wolves covered.
- Combined score 70 vs the closing total of 58.5: Over.
- Arkansas State Red Wolves closed at +115 on the moneyline (a 44% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Georgia State Panthers.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Georgia State Panthers 56%, Arkansas State Red Wolves 44%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 7:44 — Georgia State Panthers ball, 2nd & 3 at ARST 3No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Brown pass incomplete short left to #9 R.Dorsey thrown to ASU00Arkansas State Red Wolves 33% → 68% (+35 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 1:19 — Georgia State Panthers ball, 2nd & 2 at ARST 44No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Pereira rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ASU43 (#10 T.Carter)Arkansas State Red Wolves 41% → 71% (+30 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 0:26 — Georgia State Panthers ball, 3rd & 4 at ARST 33Shotgun #2 A.Pereira pass complete short left to #24 Q.Wiggins caught at ASU31, for 33 yards to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:26, 1ST DOWN #39 S.Layous kick atte…Georgia State Panthers 34% → 51% (+17 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 10:53 — Georgia State Panthers ball, 2nd & 8 at GAST 27Shotgun #2 A.Pereira pass intercepted by #15 B.Greil at ASU46 QB hurried by #23 T.Stevens, End Of PlayArkansas State Red Wolves 47% → 70% (+24 pts) · Drive 12 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 9:14 — Georgia State Panthers ball, 1st & 10 at GAST 23Shotgun #24 Q.Wiggins rush right for 77 yards gain to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:14, 1ST DOWN #39 S.Layous kick attempt good (H: #14 C.Teeter, LS: #50 B.Kitch…Georgia State Panthers 28% → 50% (+22 pts) · Drive 14 in Drive X-Ray
Arkansas State Red Wolves won after falling as low as 33% (Q2 7:44).
Game DNA
| Georgia State | Points added | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| -11.2 | Passingdropbacks | +4.0 |
| +3.6 | Rushingdesigned runs | -2.1 |
| +19.8 | Explosive plays6 plays · 8 plays | +15.1 |
| -0.1 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -0.8 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -5.8 |
| -0.4 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -1.3 |
| -2.7 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 3 · 4 of 6 | +6.6 |
| +8.2 | All plays | +16.6 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 15.2 points to Arkansas State Red Wolves. The final margin was 6.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Georgia State Panthers closed as the market favourite at 56% and lost.
The line moved toward Georgia State Panthers before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Georgia State -1.5 (-109)
Georgia State -2.5 (-115)
Arkansas State -100 48%
Arkansas State +115 44%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts156
- Completion %65.4%72nd
- Passing yards1,291117th
- Yards per attempt8.359th
- TD–INT13–5
- Rushing yards38597th
- Season line78 carries, 385 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards333132nd
- Season line21 catches, 333 yds, 7 TD
- Tackles35292nd
- Attempts201
- Completion %68.7%26th
- Passing yards1,63157th
- Yards per attempt8.167th
- TD–INT9–6
- Rushing yards287179th
- Season line61 carries, 287 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards42264th
- Season line31 catches, 422 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles6412th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 262 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 21, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Georgia State | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateGeorgia State offense vs Arkansas State defense | 46.5%29th | 47.4%120th |
| Early-down success rateArkansas State offense vs Georgia State defense | 48.0%127th | 45.6%40th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateGeorgia State offense vs Arkansas State defense | 49.1%23rd | 44.9%107th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateArkansas State offense vs Georgia State defense | 35.2%32nd | 42.7%49th |
| Explosive play rateGeorgia State offense vs Arkansas State defense | 8.8%19th | 8.0%104th |
| Explosive play rateArkansas State offense vs Georgia State defense | 8.1%105th | 8.4%26th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 45.4%109th-highest | 52.7%48th-highest |
On 3rd down Georgia State converts 49.1% (23rd) against a Arkansas State defense allowing 44.9% (107th).
On 3rd down Arkansas State converts 42.7% (49th) against a Georgia State defense allowing 35.2% (32nd).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Georgia State | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Dell McGee | Butch Jones |
| Tenureat this school | 3rd season | 6th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 8–22 | 29–41 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 8–22 | 113–95 |
| Offensive coordinator | Hue Jackson | Garrett Altman |
| Defensive coordinator | Cam Clark / John Haneline | Griffin McCarley |
Staff list as of October 20, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2021: Georgia State won 1 and Arkansas State 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | Arkansas State 27, Georgia State 20 Arkansas State won | ||
| Nov 20, 2021 | Arkansas State 20, Georgia State 28 Georgia State won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Georgia State Panthers
- Georgia State Panthers team stats
- Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Georgia State Panthers (Oct 31)
- Georgia State Panthers 22, James Madison Dukes 49 (Oct 17)
- Old Dominion Monarchs 10, Georgia State Panthers 42 (Oct 3)
Arkansas State Red Wolves
- Arkansas State Red Wolves team stats
- Arkansas State Red Wolves 23, Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles 13 (Oct 17)
- South Alabama Jaguars 56, Arkansas State Red Wolves 49 (Oct 8)
- Arkansas State Red Wolves 20, Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 23 (Oct 3)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 24, 2026
- LSU Tigers 38, Auburn Tigers 17 (Oct 24)
- Texas Tech Red Raiders 24, Cincinnati Bearcats 37 (Oct 24)
- Rice Owls 49, Florida Atlantic Owls 51 (Oct 24)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 23, Miami Hurricanes 52 (Oct 24)
- Indiana Hoosiers 13, Michigan Wolverines 6 (Oct 24)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 14, Northwestern Wildcats 42 (Oct 24)
- California Golden Bears 20, SMU Mustangs 59 (Oct 24)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 24, TCU Horned Frogs 20 (Oct 24)
- Western Michigan Broncos 38, Toledo Rockets 45 (Oct 24)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 28, Central Michigan Chippewas 27 (Oct 24)
- Baylor Bears 24, Kansas Jayhawks 25 (Oct 24)
- Akron Zips 20, Kent State Golden Flashes 35 (Oct 24)
- Oregon Ducks 10, Illinois Fighting Illini 21 (Oct 24)
- Texas A&M Aggies 20, Alabama Crimson Tide 31 (Oct 24)
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