Louisville Cardinals vs Syracuse Orange Final — October 17, 2026
LOUOffense2026 regular season to dateSYR
LOUDefenseSYRLOURecent formSYRLOUHome and roadseason to dateSYRLOULast 10 gamesSYRRest & travelrest and travel
LOURest & travelSYRAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Louisville (2-3) visited Syracuse (1-3) on Saturday, October 17 at 7:30 PM ET.
Louisville has the 15th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 98th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Syracuse has the 66th-ranked offense and the 62nd-ranked defense. When Louisville has the ball, a 15th-ranked offense (+0.271 EPA per play) meets a 62nd-ranked defense (+0.041 allowed); when Syracuse has it, a 66th-ranked offense (+0.069) meets a 98th-ranked defense (+0.140 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Louisville offense is at 50.3% (29th) and the Syracuse offense at 46.3% (77th). Louisville scores 35.6 points per game (23rd) and allows 30.6 (102nd); Syracuse scores 24.5 (73rd) and allows 29.2 (96th).
Louisville is 3-3 and 4-2 against the spread; its last game was a 44-20 win over Florida State. Syracuse is 2-3 and 2-3 against the spread; its last game was a 28-25 loss to Virginia.
Louisville closed as a 14.5-point road favorite, with Syracuse getting the points at home. The spread opened at Louisville -11.5. The total closed at 56.5, up from 55.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Louisville -650, Syracuse +472) prices Louisville at 83% and Syracuse at 17%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Louisville Cardinals 34, Syracuse Orange 26
Louisville Cardinals won by 8.
- Against the closing spread (Syracuse Orange +14.5): Syracuse Orange covered.
- Combined score 60 vs the closing total of 56.5: Over.
- Louisville Cardinals closed at -650 on the moneyline (a 83% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Louisville Cardinals.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Louisville Cardinals 83%, Syracuse Orange 17%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 8:40 — Syracuse Orange ball, 3rd & 8 at LOU 41No Huddle-Shotgun #16 M.Nelson pass complete deep right to #2 U.Hatcher caught at LOU07, for 41 yards to the LOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:40, 1ST DOWN #40 S.Barker…Syracuse Orange 28% → 40% (+11 pts) · Drive 4 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 2:19 — Louisville Cardinals ball, 3rd & 2 at LOU 18No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Kienholz rush right for 82 yards gain to the SYR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:19, 1ST DOWN #35 C.Hilbert kick attempt good (H: #17 R.Zimmerman, L…Louisville Cardinals 73% → 85% (+12 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 0:28 — Louisville Cardinals ball, 2nd & 11 at SYR 46No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Kienholz pass complete short right to #1 I.Brown caught at LOU45, for 46 yards to the SYR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:28, 1ST DOWN #35 C.Hilbert…Louisville Cardinals 74% → 87% (+13 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 7:32 — Syracuse Orange ball, 3rd & 2 at LOU 5No Huddle-Shotgun #16 M.Nelson rush middle for 3 yards loss to the LOU08 fumbled by #16 M.Nelson at LOU10 recovered by LOU #3 T.Thompson at LOU08, End Of PlayLouisville Cardinals 77% → 87% (+9 pts) · Drive 15 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 10:16 — Syracuse Orange ball, 1st & 10 at LOU 49No Huddle-Shotgun #16 M.Nelson pass intercepted by #38 C.White at LOU36 broken up by #6 S.Clark #38 C.White return 8 yards to the LOU44 (#11 C.Weaver)Louisville Cardinals 66% → 83% (+17 pts) · Drive 23 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Louisville | Points added | Syracuse |
|---|---|---|
| -10.4 | Passingdropbacks | -0.9 |
| -10.7 | Rushingdesigned runs | -0.5 |
| +28.7 | Explosive plays8 plays · 6 plays | +17.8 |
| -4.7 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 3 giveaways | -13.9 |
| +2.9 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -0.9 |
| -1.5 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +1.9 |
| +4.0 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 3 · 2 of 6 | +0.4 |
| +8.2 | All plays | +3.8 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 10.9 points to Louisville Cardinals. The final margin was 8.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Louisville Cardinals closed as the market favourite at 83% and won.
The line moved toward Louisville Cardinals before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Louisville -11.5 (-113)
Louisville -14.5 (-108)
Syracuse +375 20%
Syracuse +472 17%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts154
- Completion %69.5%27th
- Passing yards1,53439th
- Yards per attempt10.014th
- TD–INT9–1
- Rushing yards55717th
- Season line74 carries, 557 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards44527th
- Season line29 catches, 445 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles4836th
- Attempts28
- Completion %53.6%
- Passing yards210
- Yards per attempt7.5
- TD–INT1–0
- Rushing yards40555th
- Season line69 carries, 405 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards56011th
- Season line37 catches, 560 yds, 6 TD
- Tackles31277th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 14, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Louisville | Syracuse |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateLouisville offense vs Syracuse defense | 47.5%23rd | 43.2%71st |
| Early-down success rateSyracuse offense vs Louisville defense | 48.6%125th | 40.5%102nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateLouisville offense vs Syracuse defense | 43.1%55th | 32.6%16th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSyracuse offense vs Louisville defense | 38.9%63rd | 44.6%40th |
| Explosive play rateLouisville offense vs Syracuse defense | 11.2%2nd | 7.7%98th |
| Explosive play rateSyracuse offense vs Louisville defense | 6.2%50th | 8.2%36th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 46.9%94th-highest | 50.2%77th-highest |
On 3rd down Louisville converts 43.1% (55th) against a Syracuse defense allowing 32.6% (16th).
On 3rd down Syracuse converts 44.6% (40th) against a Louisville defense allowing 38.9% (63rd).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Louisville | Syracuse |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Jeff Brohm | Fran Brown |
| Tenureat this school | 4th season | 3rd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 31–15 | 15–15 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 97–59 | 15–15 |
| Offensive coordinator | Brian Brohm | Mike Johnson / Jeff Nixon |
| Defensive coordinator | Steve Ellis / Mark Ivey | Vince Kehres |
Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2021: Louisville won 1 and Syracuse 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2022 | Louisville 7, Syracuse 31 Syracuse won | ||
| Nov 13, 2021 | Syracuse 3, Louisville 41 Louisville won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Louisville Cardinals
- Louisville Cardinals team stats
- Stanford Cardinal at Louisville Cardinals (Oct 31)
- Florida State Seminoles 20, Louisville Cardinals 44 (Oct 9)
- Louisville Cardinals 28, NC State Wolfpack 31 (Oct 3)
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons 30, Louisville Cardinals 27 (Sep 26)
Syracuse Orange
More NCAAF games on October 17, 2026
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