Louisville Cardinals vs NC State Wolfpack Final — October 3, 2026
LOUOffense2026 regular season to dateNCSU
LOUDefenseNCSULOULast 10 gamesNCSURest & travelrest and travel
LOURest & travelNCSUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Louisville (1-2) visited NC State (1-2) on Saturday, October 3 at 3:30 PM ET.
Louisville has the 32nd-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 90th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, NC State has the 60th-ranked offense and the 109th-ranked defense. When Louisville has the ball, a 32nd-ranked offense (+0.145 EPA per play) meets a 109th-ranked defense (+0.162 allowed); when NC State has it, a 60th-ranked offense (+0.042) meets a 90th-ranked defense (+0.081 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Louisville offense is at 43.5% (64th) and the NC State offense at 47.6% (24th). Louisville scores 35.3 points per game (19th) and allows 34.0 (113th); NC State scores 26.7 (69th) and allows 33.3 (108th).
Louisville closed as a 5.5-point road favorite, with NC State getting the points at home. The spread opened at Louisville -6.5. The total closed at 56.5, down from 59.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Louisville -209, NC State +175) prices Louisville at 65% and NC State at 35%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Louisville Cardinals 28, NC State Wolfpack 31
NC State Wolfpack won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (NC State Wolfpack +5.5): NC State Wolfpack covered.
- Combined score 59 vs the closing total of 56.5: Over.
- NC State Wolfpack closed at +175 on the moneyline (a 35% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward NC State Wolfpack.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Louisville Cardinals 65%, NC State Wolfpack 35%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 5:30 — Louisville Cardinals ball, 1st & 10 at NCSU 20Shotgun #5 K.Brown rush middle for 1 yard loss to the NCSU21 fumbled by #5 K.Brown at NCSU23 forced by #88 I.Shirley recovered by NCSU #0 P.Aguirre at NCSU21, En…NC State Wolfpack 35% → 49% (+13 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 6:01 — Louisville Cardinals ball, 2nd & 2 at LOU 42Shotgun #3 L.Kienholz sacked for loss of 1 yard to the LOU41 (#42 K.Carter), fumble by #3 L.Kienholz recovered by NCSU #0 P.Aguirre at LOU41, End Of Play PENALTY…NC State Wolfpack 58% → 74% (+16 pts) · Drive 14 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 13:01 — NC State Wolfpack ball, 3rd & 3 at LOU 8No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass intercepted by #10 K.Beasley at LOU00, TouchbackLouisville Cardinals 13% → 28% (+14 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 12:27 — Louisville Cardinals ball, 1st & 10 at LOU 30No Huddle-Shotgun #1 I.Brown rush middle for 70 yards gain to the NCSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:27, 1ST DOWN #35 C.Hilbert kick attempt good (H: #17 R.Zimmerman, LS…Louisville Cardinals 30% → 52% (+23 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 8:45 — NC State Wolfpack ball, 2nd & 10 at NCSU 35No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short right to #7 D.Gause caught at NCSU33, for 36 yards to the LOU29 (#6 S.Clark), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNNC State Wolfpack 50% → 66% (+16 pts) · Drive 21 in Drive X-Ray
NC State Wolfpack won after falling as low as 32% (Q1 13:20).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Louisville Cardinals would win 71% of the time (NC State Wolfpack 29%). The result went the other way from the chances each team created.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Louisville Cardinals. Here is where that came from.
| Louisville | Points added | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| +2.7 | Passingdropbacks | +2.7 |
| -9.4 | Rushingdesigned runs | +0.2 |
| +26.0 | Explosive plays9 plays · 6 plays | +15.3 |
| -7.0 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -4.8 |
| -2.4 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -0.3 |
| +4.0 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -3.5 |
| -1.2 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 3 · 1 of 6 | +3.3 |
| +12.7 | All plays | +12.9 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 10.6 points to Louisville Cardinals. The final margin was 3.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Louisville Cardinals closed as the market favourite at 65% and lost.
The line moved toward NC State Wolfpack before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Louisville -6.5 (-110)
Louisville -5.5 (-109)
NC State +189 33%
NC State +175 35%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts109
- Completion %68.8%45th
- Passing yards1,14038th
- Yards per attempt10.511th
- TD–INT7–1
- Rushing yards27968th
- Season line30 carries, 279 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards32832nd
- Season line20 catches, 328 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles28100th
- Attempts110
- Completion %67.3%61st
- Passing yards89394th
- Yards per attempt8.184th
- TD–INT6–3
- Rushing yards34632nd
- Season line57 carries, 346 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards29547th
- Season line19 catches, 295 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles3618th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Louisville | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateLouisville offense vs NC State defense | 38.6%85th | 48.9%135th |
| Early-down success rateNC State offense vs Louisville defense | 38.7%61st | 38.7%82nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateLouisville offense vs NC State defense | 41.5%62nd | 35.1%39th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateNC State offense vs Louisville defense | 31.6%20th | 50.0%21st |
| Explosive play rateLouisville offense vs NC State defense | 9.0%27th | 7.3%85th |
| Explosive play rateNC State offense vs Louisville defense | 6.6%68th | 5.3%100th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 47.0%88th-highest | 49.2%73rd-highest |
On 3rd down Louisville converts 41.5% (62nd) against a NC State defense allowing 35.1% (39th).
On 3rd down NC State converts 50.0% (21st) against a Louisville defense allowing 31.6% (20th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Louisville | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Jeff Brohm | Dave Doeren |
| Tenureat this school | 4th season | 14th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 30–14 | 97–72 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 96–58 | 120–76 |
| Offensive coordinator | Brian Brohm | Kurt Roper |
| Defensive coordinator | Steve Ellis / Mark Ivey | D. J. Eliot / Charlton Warren |
Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 3 times since 2021: Louisville won 2 and NC State 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2023 | Louisville 13, NC State 10 Louisville won | ||
| Nov 19, 2022 | NC State 10, Louisville 25 Louisville won | ||
| Oct 30, 2021 | Louisville 13, NC State 28 NC State won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Louisville Cardinals
- Louisville Cardinals team stats
- Stanford Cardinal at Louisville Cardinals (Oct 31)
- Louisville Cardinals 34, Syracuse Orange 26 (Oct 17)
- Florida State Seminoles 20, Louisville Cardinals 44 (Oct 9)
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons 30, Louisville Cardinals 27 (Sep 26)
NC State Wolfpack
- NC State Wolfpack team stats
- California Golden Bears at NC State Wolfpack (Oct 31)
- NC State Wolfpack 28, Stanford Cardinal 31 (Oct 23)
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons 38, NC State Wolfpack 14 (Oct 10)
- NC State Wolfpack 8, Virginia Cavaliers 34 (Aug 29)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 3, 2026
- Memphis Tigers 59, Charlotte 49ers 8 (Oct 3)
- Navy Midshipmen 9, Air Force Falcons 14 (Oct 3)
- UCF Knights 17, Houston Cougars 27 (Oct 3)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 42, Iowa State Cyclones 45 (Oct 3)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 0, Kansas Jayhawks 55 (Oct 3)
- Michigan Wolverines 14, Minnesota Golden Gophers 20 (Oct 3)
- Alabama Crimson Tide 56, Mississippi State Bulldogs 23 (Oct 3)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish 37, North Carolina Tar Heels 26 (Oct 3)
- Boston College Eagles 16, SMU Mustangs 25 (Oct 3)
- Syracuse Orange 42, UConn Huskies 41 (Oct 3)
- Stanford Cardinal 3, Wake Forest Demon Deacons 57 (Oct 3)
- Michigan State Spartans 3, Wisconsin Badgers 31 (Oct 3)
- Vanderbilt Commodores 14, Georgia Bulldogs 38 (Oct 3)
- Western Michigan Broncos 20, Buffalo Bulls 17 (Oct 3)
Dig deeper
Follow the market every day
See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.
Odds boardTracked results