Florida State Seminoles vs Miami Hurricanes Final — October 17, 2026
FSUOffense2026 regular season to dateMIA
FSUDefenseMIAFSURecent formMIAFSUHome and roadseason to dateMIAFSULast 10 gamesMIARest & travelrest and travel
FSURest & travelMIAAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Florida State (2-3) visited Miami (4-0) on Saturday, October 17 at 7:00 PM ET.
Florida State has the 43rd-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 126th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Miami has the 4th-ranked offense and the 37th-ranked defense. When Florida State has the ball, a 43rd-ranked offense (+0.128 EPA per play) meets a 37th-ranked defense (−0.027 allowed); when Miami has it, a 4th-ranked offense (+0.336) meets a 126th-ranked defense (+0.249 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Florida State offense is at 47.5% (60th) and the Miami offense at 60.5% (1st). Florida State scores 30.4 points per game (45th) and allows 29.0 (92nd); Miami scores 42.8 (4th) and allows 10.5 (1st).
Florida State is 3-3; its last game was a 44-20 loss to Louisville. Miami is 5-0 and 4-1 against the spread; its last game was a 41-13 win over Clemson.
Miami closed as a 20.5-point favorite at home against Florida State. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 56.5, up from 55.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Florida State +900, Miami -1600) prices Florida State at 10% and Miami at 90%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Florida State Seminoles 35, Miami Hurricanes 43
Miami Hurricanes won by 8.
- Against the closing spread (Miami Hurricanes -20.5): Florida State Seminoles covered.
- Combined score 78 vs the closing total of 56.5: Over.
- Miami Hurricanes closed at -1600 on the moneyline (a 90% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Florida State Seminoles 10%, Miami Hurricanes 90%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 2:00 — Florida State Seminoles ball, 1st & 10 at MIA 15No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UM11 (#25 J.Dunnigan; #5 J.Scott)Miami Hurricanes 79% → 94% (+15 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 2:39 — Florida State Seminoles ball, 1st & 10 at FSU 25No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete deep left to #0 D.Robinson caught at UM50, for 75 yards to the UM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:39, 1ST DOWN #39 G.Panikows…Florida State Seminoles 6% → 27% (+21 pts) · Drive 23 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — Miami Hurricanes ball, 1st & 10 at FSU 25Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass incomplete deep right to #87 G.Mueller thrown to FSU01 broken up by #7 A.BarkerFlorida State Seminoles 39% → 83% (+44 pts) · Drive 27 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — Miami Hurricanes ball, 2nd & 10 at FSU 25Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass incomplete deep right to #87 G.Mueller thrown to FSU01 broken up by #7 A.BarkerMiami Hurricanes 35% → 77% (+43 pts) · Drive 27 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — Miami Hurricanes ball, 2nd & 3 at FSU 25Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short left to #7 D.Upshaw caught at FSU26, for 20 yards to the FSU05 (#8 D.McCray), 1ST DOWNMiami Hurricanes 71% → 91% (+19 pts) · Drive 28 in Drive X-Ray
Miami Hurricanes won after falling as low as 35% (OT).
Game DNA
| Florida State | Points added | Miami |
|---|---|---|
| -4.3 | Passingdropbacks | -6.8 |
| -1.9 | Rushingdesigned runs | -3.8 |
| +24.5 | Explosive plays6 plays · 6 plays | +14.4 |
| -4.4 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -4.3 |
| -1.3 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -0.8 |
| -1.3 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +0.3 |
| -4.0 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 4 · 4 of 6 | +4.7 |
| +7.4 | All plays | +3.6 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 10.0 points to Florida State Seminoles. The final margin was 8.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Miami Hurricanes closed as the market favourite at 90% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Florida State +20.5 (-111)
Florida State +20.5 (-110)
Miami -1667 90%
Miami -1600 90%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts153
- Completion %59.5%170th
- Passing yards1,32083rd
- Yards per attempt8.651st
- TD–INT8–7
- Rushing yards56516th
- Season line100 carries, 565 yds, 5 TD
- Receiving yards299125th
- Season line16 catches, 299 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles38134th
- Attempts133
- Completion %84.2%1st
- Passing yards1,43853rd
- Yards per attempt10.84th
- TD–INT15–0
- Rushing yards307118th
- Season line52 carries, 307 yds, 5 TD
- Receiving yards6048th
- Season line39 catches, 604 yds, 6 TD
- Tackles21682nd
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 14, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Florida State | Miami |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateFlorida State offense vs Miami defense | 44.3%58th | 46.8%113th |
| Early-down success rateMiami offense vs Florida State defense | 45.1%88th | 54.7%1st |
| 3rd-down conversion rateFlorida State offense vs Miami defense | 43.5%51st | 34.9%36th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMiami offense vs Florida State defense | 44.3%100th | 50.0%18th |
| Explosive play rateFlorida State offense vs Miami defense | 8.6%27th | 6.3%56th |
| Explosive play rateMiami offense vs Florida State defense | 9.0%123rd | 8.5%29th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 45.5%101st-highest | 52.6%54th-highest |
On 3rd down Florida State converts 43.5% (51st) against a Miami defense allowing 34.9% (36th).
On 3rd down Miami converts 50.0% (18th) against a Florida State defense allowing 44.3% (100th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Florida State | Miami |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Mike Norvell | Mario Cristobal |
| Tenureat this school | 7th season | 5th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 41–37 | 40–19 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 79–52 | 102–79 |
| Offensive coordinator | Tim Harris Jr. | Shannon Dawson |
| Defensive coordinator | Tony White | Corey Hetherman |
Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 5 times since 2021: Florida State won 3 and Miami 2.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2025 | Miami 28, Florida State 22 Miami won | ||
| Oct 26, 2024 | Florida State 14, Miami 36 Miami won | ||
| Nov 11, 2023 | Miami 20, Florida State 27 Florida State won | ||
| Nov 5, 2022 | Florida State 45, Miami 3 Florida State won | ||
| Nov 13, 2021 | Miami 28, Florida State 31 Florida State won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Florida State Seminoles
- Florida State Seminoles team stats
- Clemson Tigers at Florida State Seminoles (Oct 31)
- Florida State Seminoles 20, Louisville Cardinals 44 (Oct 9)
- Virginia Cavaliers 7, Florida State Seminoles 38 (Oct 3)
Miami Hurricanes
More NCAAF games on October 17, 2026
- Florida Atlantic Owls 24, Army Black Knights 56 (Oct 17)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 21, Boston College Eagles 27 (Oct 17)
- Ball State Cardinals 32, Bowling Green Falcons 31 (Oct 17)
- Charleston Southern Buccaneers 0, Clemson Tigers 37 (Oct 17)
- Ohio State Buckeyes 19, Indiana Hoosiers 15 (Oct 17)
- Georgia State Panthers 22, James Madison Dukes 49 (Oct 17)
- Kansas Jayhawks 24, Kansas State Wildcats 35 (Oct 17)
- Mississippi State Bulldogs 0, LSU Tigers 31 (Oct 17)
- Northwestern Wildcats 24, Michigan State Spartans 21 (Oct 17)
- Virginia Cavaliers 13, SMU Mustangs 23 (Oct 17)
- Florida Gators 27, Texas Longhorns 24 (Oct 17)
- Cincinnati Bearcats 42, West Virginia Mountaineers 45 (Oct 17)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 37, Maryland Terrapins 30 (Oct 17)
- UMass Minutemen 18, Buffalo Bulls 25 (Oct 17)
Dig deeper
Follow the market every day
See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.
Odds boardTracked results