Air Force Falcons vs Wyoming Cowboys Final — October 23, 2026
AFOffense2026 regular season to dateWYO
AFDefenseWYOAFRecent formWYOAFHome and roadseason to dateWYOAFLast 10 gamesWYORest & travelrest and travel
AFRest & travelWYOAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 7 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Air Force (4-1) visited Wyoming (3-3) on Friday, October 23 at 9:00 PM ET.
Air Force has the 7th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 93rd-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Wyoming has the 39th-ranked offense and the 97th-ranked defense. When Air Force has the ball, a 7th-ranked offense (+0.297 EPA per play) meets a 97th-ranked defense (+0.144 allowed); when Wyoming has it, a 39th-ranked offense (+0.153) meets a 93rd-ranked defense (+0.140 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Air Force offense is at 54.8% (3rd) and the Wyoming offense at 49.3% (42nd). Air Force scores 30.2 points per game (40th) and allows 23.6 (50th); Wyoming scores 17.8 (118th) and allows 22.2 (43rd).
Air Force is 5-1 and 4-2 against the spread; its last game was a 41-31 win over UNLV. Wyoming is 4-3 and 3-4 against the spread; its last game was a 41-23 win over Northern Illinois.
Air Force closed as a 6.5-point road favorite, with Wyoming getting the points at home. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 46.5, up from 44.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Air Force -258, Wyoming +205) prices Air Force at 69% and Wyoming at 31%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Air Force Falcons 14, Wyoming Cowboys 28
Wyoming Cowboys won by 14.
- Against the closing spread (Wyoming Cowboys +6.5): Wyoming Cowboys covered.
- Combined score 42 vs the closing total of 46.5: Under.
- Wyoming Cowboys closed at +205 on the moneyline (a 31% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Air Force Falcons.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Air Force Falcons 69%, Wyoming Cowboys 31%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 14:10 — Wyoming Cowboys ball, 2nd & 3 at WYO 32Shotgun #6 T.Hughes rush middle for 68 yards gain to the AFA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:10, 1ST DOWN #47 E.Sandvik kick attempt good (H: #43 G.Helm, LS: #49 N.Curry)Wyoming Cowboys 32% → 44% (+12 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 11:00 — Air Force Falcons ball, 1st & 10 at AF 47Shotgun #5 E.Medders rush right for 3 yards loss to the AFA44 fumbled by #5 E.Medders at AFA45 recovered by WYO #11 E.Bogar at AFA44, End Of PlayWyoming Cowboys 41% → 55% (+13 pts) · Drive 2 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 14:21 — Wyoming Cowboys ball, 3rd & 5 at WYO 25Shotgun #6 T.Hughes pass incomplete deep middle to #9 J.Holman thrown to AFA24 broken up by #9 M.MustellAir Force Falcons 31% → 55% (+24 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 15:00 — Air Force Falcons ball, 3rd & 14 at WYO 25Shotgun #11 J.Johnson pass incomplete short right to #44 R.Conti thrown to WYO25Air Force Falcons 38% → 49% (+12 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 12:09 — Air Force Falcons ball, 3rd & 9 at WYO 10#11 J.Johnson rush left for 9 yards loss to the WYO19 fumbled by #11 J.Johnson at WYO14 forced by #26 G.Rutherford recovered by WYO #11 E.Bogar at WYO19, End Of PlayWyoming Cowboys 58% → 76% (+18 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
Wyoming Cowboys won after falling as low as 31% (Q1 15:00).
Game DNA
| Air Force | Points added | Wyoming |
|---|---|---|
| +0.3 | Passingdropbacks | +2.6 |
| +15.8 | Rushingdesigned runs | -0.7 |
| +3.1 | Explosive plays2 plays · 4 plays | +10.9 |
| -11.1 | Turnovers3 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +3.5 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -1.7 |
| -3.3 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -2.4 |
| +1.8 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 4 · 2 of 4 | +4.3 |
| +10.0 | All plays | +13.1 |
The biggest single gap: rushing, worth about 16.5 points to Air Force Falcons. The final margin was 14.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Air Force Falcons closed as the market favourite at 69% and lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Air Force -6.5 (-112)
Air Force -6.5 (-110)
Wyoming +200 32%
Wyoming +205 31%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts7
- Completion %57.1%
- Passing yards47
- Yards per attempt6.7
- TD–INT1–0
- Rushing yards39193rd
- Season line92 carries, 391 yds, 7 TD
- Receiving yards121563rd
- Season line7 catches, 121 yds
- Tackles6314th
- Attempts155
- Completion %63.2%101st
- Passing yards1,018177th
- Yards per attempt6.6198th
- TD–INT3–7
- Rushing yards45953rd
- Season line89 carries, 459 yds, 5 TD
- Receiving yards216301st
- Season line11 catches, 216 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles5070th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 262 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 21, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Air Force | Wyoming |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateAir Force offense vs Wyoming defense | 46.5%29th | 45.0%96th |
| Early-down success rateWyoming offense vs Air Force defense | 45.0%97th | 44.5%52nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateAir Force offense vs Wyoming defense | 54.2%9th | 39.2%59th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateWyoming offense vs Air Force defense | 40.7%70th | 32.3%114th |
| Explosive play rateAir Force offense vs Wyoming defense | 6.2%86th | 5.1%23rd |
| Explosive play rateWyoming offense vs Air Force defense | 6.8%70th | 6.2%89th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 13.6%138th-highest | 40.2%125th-highest |
On 3rd down Air Force converts 54.2% (9th) against a Wyoming defense allowing 39.2% (59th).
On 3rd down Wyoming converts 32.3% (114th) against a Air Force defense allowing 40.7% (70th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Air Force | Wyoming |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Troy Calhoun | Jay Sawvel |
| Tenureat this school | 20th season | 3rd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 144–98 | 11–20 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 144–98 | 11–20 |
| Offensive coordinator | Mike Thiessen | Christian Taylor |
| Defensive coordinator | Steve Russ | Aaron Bohl |
Staff list as of October 20, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 5 times since 2021: Air Force won 3 and Wyoming 2.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | Wyoming 21, Air Force 24 Air Force won | ||
| Sep 28, 2024 | Air Force 19, Wyoming 31 Wyoming won | ||
| Oct 14, 2023 | Wyoming 27, Air Force 34 Air Force won | ||
| Sep 16, 2022 | Air Force 14, Wyoming 17 Wyoming won | ||
| Oct 9, 2021 | Wyoming 14, Air Force 24 Air Force won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Air Force Falcons
- Air Force Falcons team stats
- UConn Huskies at Air Force Falcons (Oct 31)
- UNLV Rebels 31, Air Force Falcons 41 (Oct 17)
- Air Force Falcons 28, Northern Illinois Huskies 7 (Oct 10)
- Navy Midshipmen 9, Air Force Falcons 14 (Oct 3)
Wyoming Cowboys
- Wyoming Cowboys team stats
- Northern Illinois Huskies 23, Wyoming Cowboys 41 (Oct 17)
- Wyoming Cowboys 16, San Jose State Spartans 13 (Oct 9)
- Wyoming Cowboys 0, North Dakota State Bison 28 (Oct 3)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
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