Air Force Falcons vs Northern Illinois Huskies Final — October 10, 2026
AFOffense2026 regular season to dateNIU
AFDefenseNIUAFRecent formNIUAFHome and roadseason to dateNIUAFLast 10 gamesNIURest & travelrest and travel
AFRest & travelNIUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Air Force (2-1) visited Northern Illinois (0-3) on Saturday, October 10 at 7:30 PM ET.
Air Force has the 24th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 73rd-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Northern Illinois has the 108th-ranked offense and the 128th-ranked defense. When Air Force has the ball, a 24th-ranked offense (+0.228 EPA per play) meets a 128th-ranked defense (+0.283 allowed); when Northern Illinois has it, a 108th-ranked offense (−0.066) meets a 73rd-ranked defense (+0.067 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Air Force offense is at 50.5% (29th) and the Northern Illinois offense at 44.0% (96th). Air Force scores 27.3 points per game (64th) and allows 26.7 (75th); Northern Illinois scores 10.3 (134th) and allows 39.0 (127th).
Air Force is 3-1 and 2-2 against the spread; its last game was a 14-9 win over Navy. Northern Illinois is 0-4 and 1-3 against the spread; its last game was a 35-14 loss to Georgia State.
Air Force closed as a 7-point road favorite, with Northern Illinois getting the points at home. The spread opened at Air Force -13.5. The total closed at 48.5, up from 47.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Air Force -298, Northern Illinois +240) prices Air Force at 72% and Northern Illinois at 28%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Air Force Falcons 28, Northern Illinois Huskies 7
Air Force Falcons won by 21.
- Against the closing spread (Northern Illinois Huskies +7): Air Force Falcons covered.
- Combined score 35 vs the closing total of 48.5: Under.
- Air Force Falcons closed at -298 on the moneyline (a 72% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 9 points toward Northern Illinois Huskies.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Air Force Falcons 72%, Northern Illinois Huskies 28%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 14:59 — Northern Illinois Huskies ball, 3rd & 5 at AF 6Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass intercepted by #6 B.Fletcher at AF05 #6 B.Fletcher return 5 yards to the AF10 (#70 C.Trask)Air Force Falcons 80% → 86% (+6 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Air Force | Points added | Northern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| -2.8 | Passingdropbacks | +8.4 |
| +13.7 | Rushingdesigned runs | +3.4 |
| +6.6 | Explosive plays3 plays · 2 plays | +2.7 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -5.5 |
| +0.0 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -0.8 |
| -0.2 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -1.3 |
| +0.4 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 4 · 1 of 3 | +0.8 |
| +17.7 | All plays | +7.7 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 11.2 points to Northern Illinois Huskies. The final margin was 21.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Air Force Falcons closed as the market favourite at 72% and won.
The line moved toward Northern Illinois Huskies before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Air Force -13.5 (-110)
Air Force -7 (-114)
Northern Illinois +393 19%
Northern Illinois +240 28%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts5
- Completion %60.0%
- Passing yards47
- Yards per attempt9.4
- TD–INT1–0
- Rushing yards39138th
- Season line92 carries, 391 yds, 7 TD
- Receiving yards103505th
- Season line6 catches, 103 yds
- Tackles4322nd
- Attempts120
- Completion %70.0%27th
- Passing yards837156th
- Yards per attempt7.0154th
- TD–INT3–2
- Rushing yards253129th
- Season line57 carries, 253 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards252130th
- Season line31 catches, 252 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles27245th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 256 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Air Force | Northern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateAir Force offense vs Northern Illinois defense | 42.0%82nd | 39.3%24th |
| Early-down success rateNorthern Illinois offense vs Air Force defense | 43.4%71st | 47.6%27th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateAir Force offense vs Northern Illinois defense | 50.0%18th | 65.5%138th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateNorthern Illinois offense vs Air Force defense | 29.7%8th | 26.7%126th |
| Explosive play rateAir Force offense vs Northern Illinois defense | 5.9%94th | 9.2%123rd |
| Explosive play rateNorthern Illinois offense vs Air Force defense | 8.1%104th | 7.1%60th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 19.5%138th-highest | 64.5%4th-highest |
On 3rd down Air Force converts 50.0% (18th) against a Northern Illinois defense allowing 65.5% (138th).
On 3rd down Northern Illinois converts 26.7% (126th) against a Air Force defense allowing 29.7% (8th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Air Force | Northern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Troy Calhoun | Rob Harley (interim) (interim) |
| Tenureat this school | 20th season | 1st season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 142–98 | 0–4 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 142–98 | 0–4 |
| Offensive coordinator | Mike Thiessen | Tony Petersen |
| Defensive coordinator | Steve Russ | D. J. Bland |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Teams
Air Force Falcons
- Air Force Falcons team stats
- UConn Huskies at Air Force Falcons (Oct 31)
- Air Force Falcons 14, Wyoming Cowboys 28 (Oct 23)
- UNLV Rebels 31, Air Force Falcons 41 (Oct 17)
- Navy Midshipmen 9, Air Force Falcons 14 (Oct 3)
Northern Illinois Huskies
More NCAAF games on October 10, 2026
- Tulane Green Wave 17, Army Black Knights 20 (Oct 10)
- Sacramento State Hornets 10, Bowling Green Falcons 38 (Oct 10)
- Texas A&M Aggies 6, Missouri Tigers 27 (Oct 10)
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons 38, NC State Wolfpack 14 (Oct 10)
- Indiana Hoosiers 20, Nebraska Cornhuskers 17 (Oct 10)
- UCF Knights 28, Oklahoma State Cowboys 42 (Oct 10)
- North Carolina Tar Heels 21, Pittsburgh Panthers 17 (Oct 10)
- Arizona Wildcats 52, West Virginia Mountaineers 31 (Oct 10)
- Ball State Cardinals 14, Northwestern Wildcats 45 (Oct 10)
- South Carolina Gamecocks 38, Florida Gators 19 (Oct 10)
- Old Dominion Monarchs 10, Appalachian State Mountaineers 3 (Oct 10)
- Rice Owls 12, East Carolina Pirates 28 (Oct 10)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 20, UMass Minutemen 19 (Oct 10)
- Eastern Michigan Eagles 25, Akron Zips 23 (Oct 10)
Dig deeper
Follow the market every day
See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.
Odds boardTracked results