Duke Blue Devils vs Virginia Cavaliers Final — October 23, 2026
DUKEOffense2026 regular season to dateUVA
DUKEDefenseUVADUKERecent formUVADUKEHome and roadseason to dateUVADUKELast 10 gamesUVARest & travelrest and travel
DUKERest & travelUVAAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 7 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Duke (3-2) visited Virginia (3-3) on Friday, October 23 at 7:00 PM ET.
Duke has the 68th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 55th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Virginia has the 60th-ranked offense and the 81st-ranked defense. When Duke has the ball, a 68th-ranked offense (+0.060 EPA per play) meets a 81st-ranked defense (+0.101 allowed); when Virginia has it, a 60th-ranked offense (+0.085) meets a 55th-ranked defense (+0.036 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Duke offense is at 44.4% (94th) and the Virginia offense at 51.4% (23rd). Duke scores 25.6 points per game (72nd) and allows 17.8 (21st); Virginia scores 25.2 (74th) and allows 22.5 (46th).
Duke is 4-2 and 4-2 against the spread; its last game was a 24-20 loss to North Carolina. Virginia is 4-3; its last game was a 23-13 loss to SMU.
Virginia closed as a 2.5-point favorite at home against Duke. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 47.5, down from 48.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Duke +112, Virginia -134) prices Duke at 45% and Virginia at 55%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Duke Blue Devils 19, Virginia Cavaliers 16
Duke Blue Devils won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Virginia Cavaliers -2.5): Duke Blue Devils covered.
- Combined score 35 vs the closing total of 47.5: Under.
- Duke Blue Devils closed at +112 on the moneyline (a 45% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Duke Blue Devils 45%, Virginia Cavaliers 55%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q3 10:45 — Virginia Cavaliers ball, 1st & 5 at DUKE 41No Huddle-Shotgun #7 B.Pribula rush middle for 11 yards gain to the DUKE30 fumbled by #7 B.Pribula at DUKE42 forced by #30 W.Felder Jr. recovered by DUKE #10 T.R…Duke Blue Devils 26% → 39% (+13 pts) · Drive 13 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 2:26 — Duke Blue Devils ball, 2nd & 5 at UVA 29Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass intercepted by #5 K.Robinson at UVA24 #5 K.Robinson return 0 yards to the UVA24 (#17 J.Richardson)Virginia Cavaliers 51% → 69% (+17 pts) · Drive 16 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 10:23 — Duke Blue Devils ball, 1st & 10 at DUKE 32Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short right to #15 J.Taylor caught at DUKE48, for 43 yards to the UVA25 (#8 C.Ellis), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNDuke Blue Devils 40% → 52% (+13 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:14 — Duke Blue Devils ball, 2nd & 8 at UVA 28Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard pass complete deep right to #18 B.Keefe caught at UVA01, for 28 yards to the UVA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:14, 1ST DOWN #25 G.Strange kick att…Duke Blue Devils 46% → 71% (+24 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:10 — Duke Blue Devils ball, 1st & 10 at DUKE 38Kneel down by Duke at DUKE37 for loss of 1 yardDuke Blue Devils 88% → 100% (+12 pts) · Drive 24 in Drive X-Ray
Duke Blue Devils won after falling as low as 19% (Q4 4:30).
Game DNA
| Duke | Points added | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| -5.8 | Passingdropbacks | -4.2 |
| -2.6 | Rushingdesigned runs | -4.0 |
| +12.8 | Explosive plays6 plays · 5 plays | +11.3 |
| -5.0 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -5.2 |
| +1.8 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -2.4 |
| +0.5 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +4.0 |
| -1.1 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 1 · 1 of 4 | -1.0 |
| +0.7 | All plays | -1.4 |
The biggest single gap: special teams, worth about 4.2 points to Duke Blue Devils. The final margin was 3.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Virginia Cavaliers closed as the market favourite at 55% and lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Duke +2.5 (-107)
Duke +2.5 (-110)
Virginia -134 55%
Virginia -134 55%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts172
- Completion %62.8%112th
- Passing yards1,229136th
- Yards per attempt7.2139th
- TD–INT8–2
- Rushing yards8206th
- Season line138 carries, 820 yds, 8 TD
- Receiving yards259231st
- Season line28 catches, 259 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles33341st
- Attempts159
- Completion %65.4%72nd
- Passing yards1,217138th
- Yards per attempt7.7102nd
- TD–INT13–1
- Rushing yards39690th
- Season line81 carries, 396 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards225284th
- Season line15 catches, 225 yds, 5 TD
- Tackles38224th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 262 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 21, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Duke | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateDuke offense vs Virginia defense | 40.3%105th | 44.5%89th |
| Early-down success rateVirginia offense vs Duke defense | 43.1%69th | 49.8%8th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateDuke offense vs Virginia defense | 45.1%35th | 37.8%49th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateVirginia offense vs Duke defense | 33.3%20th | 27.7%131st |
| Explosive play rateDuke offense vs Virginia defense | 6.7%72nd | 7.1%82nd |
| Explosive play rateVirginia offense vs Duke defense | 4.6%11th | 5.3%112th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 45.7%106th-highest | 44.0%115th-highest |
On 3rd down Duke converts 45.1% (35th) against a Virginia defense allowing 37.8% (49th).
On 3rd down Virginia converts 27.7% (131st) against a Duke defense allowing 33.3% (20th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Duke | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Manny Diaz | Tony Elliott |
| Tenureat this school | 3rd season | 5th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 22–11 | 26–29 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 43–26 | 26–29 |
| Offensive coordinator | Jonathan Brewer | Desmond Kitchings |
| Defensive coordinator | Jonathan Patke | John Rudzinski |
Staff list as of October 20, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 5 times since 2021: Duke won 2 and Virginia 3.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 neutral | Duke 27, Virginia 20 Duke won | ||
| Nov 15, 2025 | Virginia 34, Duke 17 Virginia won | ||
| Nov 18, 2023 | Duke 27, Virginia 30 Virginia won | ||
| Oct 1, 2022 | Virginia 17, Duke 38 Duke won | ||
| Oct 16, 2021 | Duke 0, Virginia 48 Virginia won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Duke Blue Devils
- Duke Blue Devils team stats
- Boston College Eagles at Duke Blue Devils (Oct 31)
- North Carolina Tar Heels 24, Duke Blue Devils 20 (Oct 17)
- Duke Blue Devils 25, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 28 (Oct 10)
- Stanford Cardinal 7, Duke Blue Devils 35 (Sep 19)
Virginia Cavaliers
- Virginia Cavaliers team stats
- Virginia Cavaliers at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (Oct 31)
- Virginia Cavaliers 13, SMU Mustangs 23 (Oct 17)
- Syracuse Orange 25, Virginia Cavaliers 28 (Oct 10)
- Virginia Cavaliers 7, Florida State Seminoles 38 (Oct 3)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
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