NC State Wolfpack vs Stanford Cardinal Final — October 23, 2026
NCSUOffense2026 regular season to dateSTAN
NCSUDefenseSTANNCSURecent formSTANNCSUHome and roadseason to dateSTANNCSULast 10 gamesSTANRest & travelrest and travel
NCSURest & travelSTANAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 7 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
NC State (2-3) visited Stanford (2-4) on Friday, October 23 at 10:30 PM ET.
NC State has the 50th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 111th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Stanford has the 91st-ranked offense and the 136th-ranked defense. When NC State has the ball, a 50th-ranked offense (+0.125 EPA per play) meets a 136th-ranked defense (+0.329 allowed); when Stanford has it, a 91st-ranked offense (+0.006) meets a 111th-ranked defense (+0.181 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the NC State offense is at 51.2% (25th) and the Stanford offense at 43.1% (106th). NC State scores 25.0 points per game (75th) and allows 33.2 (115th); Stanford scores 15.7 (125th) and allows 41.5 (135th).
NC State is 3-3; its last game was a 38-14 loss to Wake Forest. Stanford is 3-4; its last game was a 34-7 win over Elon.
NC State closed as a 7.5-point road favorite, with Stanford getting the points at home. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 54.5, down from 55.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (NC State -292, Stanford +238) prices NC State at 72% and Stanford at 28%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
NC State Wolfpack 28, Stanford Cardinal 31
Stanford Cardinal won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Stanford Cardinal +7.5): Stanford Cardinal covered.
- Combined score 59 vs the closing total of 54.5: Over.
- Stanford Cardinal closed at +238 on the moneyline (a 28% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward NC State Wolfpack.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (NC State Wolfpack 72%, Stanford Cardinal 28%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 2:12 — NC State Wolfpack ball, 1st & 10 at NCSU 42No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete deep left to #20 D.Desinor caught at STAN31, for 58 yards to the STAN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:12, 1ST DOWN #94 K.Vines…NC State Wolfpack 37% → 50% (+13 pts) · Drive 4 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 0:31 — Stanford Cardinal ball, 1st & 10 at NCSU 39No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass complete short left to #11 J.Hall caught at NCSU27, for 13 yards to the NCSU26 (#24 M.Tate), 1ST DOWNStanford Cardinal 38% → 55% (+17 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 12:08 — Stanford Cardinal ball, 2nd & 10 at STAN 16No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass complete short left to #20 M.Ford caught at STAN12, for 43 yards to the NCSU41 (#2 R.Royal, III), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY NCSU UNS:…Stanford Cardinal 57% → 71% (+14 pts) · Drive 14 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 9:20 — Stanford Cardinal ball, 4th & 4 at NCSU 5No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass complete short left to #23 N.Brown caught at NCSU00, for 5 yards to the NCSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:20, 1ST DOWN #13 E.Kenney k…Stanford Cardinal 70% → 81% (+12 pts) · Drive 14 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:20 — NC State Wolfpack ball, 3rd & 10 at STAN 16No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short left to #8 K.Jackson caught at STAN00, for 16 yards to the STAN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:20, 1ST DOWN #94 K.Vines…NC State Wolfpack 6% → 19% (+13 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
Stanford Cardinal won after falling as low as 23% (Q2 6:00).
Game DNA
| NC State | Points added | Stanford |
|---|---|---|
| +2.6 | Passingdropbacks | -8.5 |
| -3.3 | Rushingdesigned runs | +0.2 |
| +12.5 | Explosive plays4 plays · 5 plays | +10.4 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -6.1 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +2.6 |
| -1.3 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -0.9 |
| +7.8 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 3 · 3 of 4 | +5.4 |
| +12.2 | All plays | +9.2 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 11.1 points to NC State Wolfpack. The final margin was 3.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
NC State Wolfpack closed as the market favourite at 72% and lost.
The line moved toward NC State Wolfpack before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
NC State -7.5 (-105)
NC State -7.5 (-107)
Stanford +211 31%
Stanford +238 28%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts189
- Completion %66.7%55th
- Passing yards1,50776th
- Yards per attempt8.082nd
- TD–INT9–4
- Rushing yards358110th
- Season line62 carries, 358 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards40078th
- Season line27 catches, 400 yds, 5 TD
- Tackles5437th
- Attempts234
- Completion %60.3%156th
- Passing yards1,63057th
- Yards per attempt7.0155th
- TD–INT7–2
- Rushing yards52936th
- Season line114 carries, 529 yds, 8 TD
- Receiving yards337126th
- Season line21 catches, 337 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles43144th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 262 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 21, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | NC State | Stanford |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateNC State offense vs Stanford defense | 43.8%63rd | 47.5%122nd |
| Early-down success rateStanford offense vs NC State defense | 49.8%132nd | 39.6%109th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateNC State offense vs Stanford defense | 50.7%17th | 50.0%124th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateStanford offense vs NC State defense | 42.1%89th | 31.7%118th |
| Explosive play rateNC State offense vs Stanford defense | 5.7%101st | 8.2%108th |
| Explosive play rateStanford offense vs NC State defense | 8.9%127th | 6.4%80th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 52.2%56th-highest | 55.5%22nd-highest |
On 3rd down NC State converts 50.7% (17th) against a Stanford defense allowing 50.0% (124th).
On 3rd down Stanford converts 31.7% (118th) against a NC State defense allowing 42.1% (89th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | NC State | Stanford |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Dave Doeren | Tavita Pritchard |
| Tenureat this school | 14th season | 1st season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 98–73 | 3–4 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 121–77 | 3–4 |
| Offensive coordinator | Kurt Roper | Terry Heffernan |
| Defensive coordinator | D. J. Eliot / Charlton Warren | Kris Richard |
Staff list as of October 20, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 1 time since 2021: NC State won 1 and Stanford 0.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | Stanford 28, NC State 59 NC State won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
NC State Wolfpack
- NC State Wolfpack team stats
- California Golden Bears at NC State Wolfpack (Oct 31)
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons 38, NC State Wolfpack 14 (Oct 10)
- Louisville Cardinals 28, NC State Wolfpack 31 (Oct 3)
- NC State Wolfpack 8, Virginia Cavaliers 34 (Aug 29)
Stanford Cardinal
More NCAAF games on October 23, 2026
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