Wyoming Cowboys vs North Dakota State Bison Final — October 3, 2026
WYOOffense2026 regular season to dateNDSU
WYODefenseNDSUWYOLast 10 gamesNDSURest & travelrest and travel
WYORest & travelNDSUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Wyoming (1-2) visited North Dakota State (3-0) on Saturday, October 3 at 3:30 PM ET.
Wyoming has the 39th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 113th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, North Dakota State has the 47th-ranked offense and the 28th-ranked defense. When Wyoming has the ball, a 39th-ranked offense (+0.120 EPA per play) meets a 28th-ranked defense (−0.120 allowed); when North Dakota State has it, a 47th-ranked offense (+0.077) meets a 113th-ranked defense (+0.196 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Wyoming offense is at 47.7% (23rd) and the North Dakota State offense at 46.7% (32nd). Wyoming scores 16.7 points per game (112th) and allows 23.0 (48th); North Dakota State scores 34.0 (26th) and allows 16.3 (19th).
North Dakota State closed as a 17-point favorite at home against Wyoming. The spread opened at North Dakota State -20.5. The total closed at 43.5, down from 47.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Wyoming +658, North Dakota State -1070) prices Wyoming at 13% and North Dakota State at 87%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Wyoming Cowboys 0, North Dakota State Bison 28
North Dakota State Bison won by 28.
- Against the closing spread (North Dakota State Bison -17): North Dakota State Bison covered.
- Combined score 28 vs the closing total of 43.5: Under.
- North Dakota State Bison closed at -1070 on the moneyline (a 87% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 4 points toward Wyoming Cowboys.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Wyoming Cowboys 13%, North Dakota State Bison 87%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, North Dakota State Bison would win >99% of the time (Wyoming Cowboys <1%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured North Dakota State Bison. Here is where that came from.
| Wyoming | Points added | North Dakota State |
|---|---|---|
| -3.3 | Passingdropbacks | -1.3 |
| -1.5 | Rushingdesigned runs | -1.4 |
| +0.0 | Explosive plays0 plays · 3 plays | +4.3 |
| -5.8 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 1 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +4.7 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +0.2 |
| -4.0 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -2.2 |
| -0.3 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 1 · 3 of 5 | +7.5 |
| -10.1 | All plays | +7.2 |
The biggest single gap: red zone, worth about 7.8 points to North Dakota State Bison. The final margin was 28.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
North Dakota State Bison closed as the market favourite at 87% and won.
The line moved toward Wyoming Cowboys before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Wyoming +20.5 (-110)
Wyoming +17 (-109)
North Dakota State -1895 91%
North Dakota State -1070 87%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts98
- Completion %62.2%122nd
- Passing yards656173rd
- Yards per attempt6.7165th
- TD–INT2–5
- Rushing yards226108th
- Season line42 carries, 226 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards155252nd
- Season line8 catches, 155 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles3066th
- Attempts91
- Completion %67.0%64th
- Passing yards808129th
- Yards per attempt8.941st
- TD–INT7–2
- Rushing yards225110th
- Season line50 carries, 225 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards28354th
- Season line18 catches, 283 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles24186th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Wyoming | North Dakota State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateWyoming offense vs North Dakota State defense | 44.7%21st | 40.7%80th |
| Early-down success rateNorth Dakota State offense vs Wyoming defense | 40.8%83rd | 42.6%38th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateWyoming offense vs North Dakota State defense | 36.4%92nd | 41.7%83rd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateNorth Dakota State offense vs Wyoming defense | 40.5%75th | 44.1%45th |
| Explosive play rateWyoming offense vs North Dakota State defense | 7.1%64th | 6.1%47th |
| Explosive play rateNorth Dakota State offense vs Wyoming defense | 5.1%28th | 9.5%19th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 45.2%101st-highest | 40.2%121st-highest |
On 3rd down Wyoming converts 36.4% (92nd) against a North Dakota State defense allowing 41.7% (83rd).
On 3rd down North Dakota State converts 44.1% (45th) against a Wyoming defense allowing 40.5% (75th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Wyoming | North Dakota State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Jay Sawvel | Tim Polasek |
| Tenureat this school | 3rd season | 3rd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 9–19 | 30–3 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 9–19 | 4–0 |
| Offensive coordinator | Christian Taylor | Dan Larson |
| Defensive coordinator | Aaron Bohl | Grant Olson |
Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.
Teams
Wyoming Cowboys
- Wyoming Cowboys team stats
- Air Force Falcons 14, Wyoming Cowboys 28 (Oct 23)
- Northern Illinois Huskies 23, Wyoming Cowboys 41 (Oct 17)
- Wyoming Cowboys 16, San Jose State Spartans 13 (Oct 9)
North Dakota State Bison
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