UNLV Rebels vs Air Force Falcons Final — October 17, 2026
UNLVOffense2026 regular season to dateAF
UNLVDefenseAFUNLVRecent formAFUNLVHome and roadseason to dateAFUNLVLast 10 gamesAFRest & travelrest and travel
UNLVRest & travelAFAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
UNLV (4-2) visited Air Force (3-1) on Saturday, October 17 at 3:30 PM ET.
UNLV has the 88th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 34th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Air Force has the 22nd-ranked offense and the 85th-ranked defense. When UNLV has the ball, a 88th-ranked offense (+0.011 EPA per play) meets a 85th-ranked defense (+0.105 allowed); when Air Force has it, a 22nd-ranked offense (+0.243) meets a 34th-ranked defense (−0.046 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the UNLV offense is at 41.4% (122nd) and the Air Force offense at 54.1% (9th). UNLV scores 23.0 points per game (85th) and allows 20.8 (35th); Air Force scores 27.5 (59th) and allows 21.8 (42nd).
UNLV is 4-2; its last game was a 13-7 win over North Dakota State. Air Force is 4-1 and 3-2 against the spread; its last game was a 28-7 win over Northern Illinois.
UNLV closed as a 1.5-point road favorite, with Air Force getting the points at home. The spread opened at UNLV -3. The total closed 48.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (UNLV -118, Air Force -105) prices UNLV at 51% and Air Force at 49%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
UNLV Rebels 31, Air Force Falcons 41
Air Force Falcons won by 10.
- Against the closing spread (Air Force Falcons +1.5): Air Force Falcons covered.
- Combined score 72 vs the closing total of 48.5: Over.
- Air Force Falcons closed at -105 on the moneyline (a 49% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 5 points toward Air Force Falcons.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (UNLV Rebels 51%, Air Force Falcons 49%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 14:52 — UNLV Rebels ball, 2nd & 8 at UNLV 40Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete deep left to #6 K.McGee caught at AF13, for 60 yards to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:52, 1ST DOWN #32 R.Villela kick attempt g…UNLV Rebels 43% → 58% (+16 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 4:36 — UNLV Rebels ball, 3rd & 4 at AF 45Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete deep left to #5 T.McNair caught at AF20, for 25 yards to the AF20 (#17 T.Young), 1ST DOWNUNLV Rebels 43% → 53% (+10 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 1:41 — UNLV Rebels ball, 3rd & 8 at AF 8Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete short left to #6 K.McGee caught at AF00, for 8 yards to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:41 #32 R.Villela kick attempt good (H: #2…UNLV Rebels 51% → 64% (+13 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 14:54 — Air Force Falcons ball, 1st & 10 at UNLV 32#5 E.Medders rush middle for 32 yards gain to the LV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:54, 1ST DOWN #90 C.Cremascoli kick attempt good (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms)Air Force Falcons 47% → 61% (+14 pts) · Drive 12 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 14:08 — UNLV Rebels ball, 2nd & 8 at UNLV 27Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete short middle to #10 T.Stellato caught at LV30, for 7 yards to the LV34 fumbled by #10 T.Stellato at LV35 forced by #26 A.Perez…Air Force Falcons 63% → 77% (+14 pts) · Drive 13 in Drive X-Ray
Air Force Falcons won after falling as low as 35% (Q3 13:39).
Game DNA
| UNLV | Points added | Air Force |
|---|---|---|
| -0.8 | Passingdropbacks | -3.1 |
| +3.9 | Rushingdesigned runs | +12.3 |
| +8.6 | Explosive plays3 plays · 6 plays | +13.5 |
| -6.9 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +2.9 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -0.6 |
| +0.8 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +0.0 |
| +10.2 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 4 · 3 of 5 | +7.8 |
| +18.7 | All plays | +29.9 |
The biggest single gap: rushing, worth about 8.4 points to Air Force Falcons. The final margin was 10.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
UNLV Rebels closed as the market favourite at 51% and lost.
The line moved toward Air Force Falcons before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
UNLV -3 (-100)
UNLV -1.5 (-105)
Air Force +120 44%
Air Force -105 49%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts149
- Completion %58.4%183rd
- Passing yards1,145110th
- Yards per attempt7.7107th
- TD–INT8–1
- Rushing yards49531st
- Season line95 carries, 495 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards280141st
- Season line15 catches, 280 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles4836th
- Attempts5
- Completion %60.0%
- Passing yards47
- Yards per attempt9.4
- TD–INT1–0
- Rushing yards39164th
- Season line92 carries, 391 yds, 7 TD
- Receiving yards103573rd
- Season line6 catches, 103 yds
- Tackles5510th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 14, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | UNLV | Air Force |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateUNLV offense vs Air Force defense | 37.9%125th | 45.6%100th |
| Early-down success rateAir Force offense vs UNLV defense | 40.5%37th | 46.0%33rd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateUNLV offense vs Air Force defense | 38.6%84th | 32.6%17th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateAir Force offense vs UNLV defense | 38.6%60th | 55.6%7th |
| Explosive play rateUNLV offense vs Air Force defense | 6.1%89th | 7.4%93rd |
| Explosive play rateAir Force offense vs UNLV defense | 8.2%107th | 5.5%100th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 43.4%114th-highest | 15.6%138th-highest |
On 3rd down UNLV converts 38.6% (84th) against a Air Force defense allowing 32.6% (17th).
On 3rd down Air Force converts 55.6% (7th) against a UNLV defense allowing 38.6% (60th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | UNLV | Air Force |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Dan Mullen | Troy Calhoun |
| Tenureat this school | 2nd season | 20th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 14–6 | 143–98 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 117–67 | 143–98 |
| Offensive coordinator | Corey Dennis | Mike Thiessen |
| Defensive coordinator | Paul Guenther | Steve Russ |
Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 4 times since 2021: UNLV won 2 and Air Force 2.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2025 | Air Force 48, UNLV 51 UNLV won | ||
| Nov 18, 2023 | UNLV 31, Air Force 27 UNLV won | ||
| Oct 15, 2022 | Air Force 42, UNLV 7 Air Force won | ||
| Nov 26, 2021 | UNLV 14, Air Force 48 Air Force won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
UNLV Rebels
- UNLV Rebels team stats
- Northern Illinois Huskies at UNLV Rebels (Oct 31)
- North Dakota State Bison 7, UNLV Rebels 13 (Oct 10)
- California Golden Bears 31, UNLV Rebels 39 (Oct 3)
- UNLV Rebels 6, North Texas Mean Green 44 (Sep 12)
Air Force Falcons
- Air Force Falcons team stats
- UConn Huskies at Air Force Falcons (Oct 31)
- Air Force Falcons 14, Wyoming Cowboys 28 (Oct 23)
- Air Force Falcons 28, Northern Illinois Huskies 7 (Oct 10)
- Navy Midshipmen 9, Air Force Falcons 14 (Oct 3)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 17, 2026
- Florida Atlantic Owls 24, Army Black Knights 56 (Oct 17)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 21, Boston College Eagles 27 (Oct 17)
- Ball State Cardinals 32, Bowling Green Falcons 31 (Oct 17)
- Charleston Southern Buccaneers 0, Clemson Tigers 37 (Oct 17)
- Ohio State Buckeyes 19, Indiana Hoosiers 15 (Oct 17)
- Georgia State Panthers 22, James Madison Dukes 49 (Oct 17)
- Kansas Jayhawks 24, Kansas State Wildcats 35 (Oct 17)
- Mississippi State Bulldogs 0, LSU Tigers 31 (Oct 17)
- Northwestern Wildcats 24, Michigan State Spartans 21 (Oct 17)
- Virginia Cavaliers 13, SMU Mustangs 23 (Oct 17)
- Florida Gators 27, Texas Longhorns 24 (Oct 17)
- Cincinnati Bearcats 42, West Virginia Mountaineers 45 (Oct 17)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 37, Maryland Terrapins 30 (Oct 17)
- UMass Minutemen 18, Buffalo Bulls 25 (Oct 17)
Dig deeper
Follow the market every day
See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.
Odds boardTracked results