Eastern Michigan Eagles vs UMass Minutemen Final — October 3, 2026
EMUOffense2026 regular season to dateMASS
EMUDefenseMASSEMULast 10 gamesMASSRest & travelrest and travel
EMURest & travelMASSAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Eastern Michigan (1-3) visited Massachusetts (2-0) on Saturday, October 3 at 3:30 PM ET.
Eastern Michigan has the 118th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 76th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Massachusetts has the 35th-ranked offense and the 1st-ranked defense. When Eastern Michigan has the ball, a 118th-ranked offense (−0.171 EPA per play) meets a 1st-ranked defense (−0.396 allowed); when Massachusetts has it, a 35th-ranked offense (+0.134) meets a 76th-ranked defense (+0.045 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Eastern Michigan offense is at 37.6% (125th) and the Massachusetts offense at 48.4% (19th). Eastern Michigan scores 16.5 points per game (114th) and allows 33.2 (107th); Massachusetts scores 36.0 (16th) and allows 13.5 (11th).
Massachusetts closed as a 5.5-point favorite at home against Eastern Michigan. The spread opened at Massachusetts -3. The total closed at 48.5, down from 49.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Eastern Michigan +180, Massachusetts -225) prices Eastern Michigan at 34% and Massachusetts at 66%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Eastern Michigan Eagles 38, UMass Minutemen 14
Eastern Michigan Eagles won by 24.
- Against the closing spread (UMass Minutemen -5.5): Eastern Michigan Eagles covered.
- Combined score 52 vs the closing total of 48.5: Over.
- Eastern Michigan Eagles closed at +180 on the moneyline (a 34% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 7 points toward UMass Minutemen.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Eastern Michigan Eagles 34%, UMass Minutemen 66%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 5:38 — Eastern Michigan Eagles ball, 2nd & 17 at MASS 27No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass complete deep right to #85 K.Isaac caught at UMass03, for 27 yards to the UMass00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:38, 1ST DOWN #46 R.Kessinge…Eastern Michigan Eagles 44% → 55% (+11 pts) · Drive 2 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 0:50 — UMass Minutemen ball, 1st & 10 at EMU 14Shotgun #23 E.Faulkner rush middle for 6 yards gain to the EMU08 fumbled by #23 E.Faulkner at EMU10 forced by #9 D.Williams recovered by EMU #90 H.Gonzalez at EM…Eastern Michigan Eagles 45% → 57% (+13 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 1:55 — Eastern Michigan Eagles ball, 4th & 2 at MASS 2Shotgun #28 B.Bennett rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UMass00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:55 #46 R.Kessinger kick attempt good (H: #39 D.Hull, LS: #42 J.Kautz)Eastern Michigan Eagles 73% → 81% (+8 pts) · Drive 6 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 0:28 — UMass Minutemen ball, 2nd & 5 at EMU 34Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short right to #11 M.Dowling caught at EMU15, for 34 yards to the EMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:28, 1ST DOWN #99 D.Morris kick…UMass Minutemen 22% → 35% (+13 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 13:01 — Eastern Michigan Eagles ball, 1st & 25 at EMU 22Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass complete deep middle to #5 H.Mack caught at EMU45, for 29 yards to the UMass49 (#0 I.Reed), 1ST DOWNEastern Michigan Eagles 62% → 71% (+9 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
Eastern Michigan Eagles won after falling as low as 32% (Q1 14:16).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Eastern Michigan Eagles would win 99% of the time (UMass Minutemen 1%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Eastern Michigan Eagles. Here is where that came from.
| Eastern Michigan | Points added | Massachusetts |
|---|---|---|
| +3.4 | Passingdropbacks | -0.5 |
| -5.8 | Rushingdesigned runs | -4.4 |
| +10.2 | Explosive plays4 plays · 3 plays | +8.8 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -10.9 |
| -3.2 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -3.1 |
| +5.6 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -1.5 |
| +5.7 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 4 of 5 · 1 of 2 | +1.2 |
| +15.9 | All plays | -10.4 |
The biggest single gap: turnovers, worth about 10.9 points to Eastern Michigan Eagles. The final margin was 24.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
UMass Minutemen closed as the market favourite at 66% and lost.
The line moved toward UMass Minutemen before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Eastern Michigan +3 (-105)
Eastern Michigan +5.5 (-108)
Massachusetts -157 59%
Massachusetts -225 66%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts173
- Completion %61.3%139th
- Passing yards96875th
- Yards per attempt5.6221st
- TD–INT6–3
- Rushing yards24390th
- Season line49 carries, 243 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards220130th
- Season line21 catches, 220 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles433rd
- Attempts73
- Completion %74.0%11th
- Passing yards610192nd
- Yards per attempt8.469th
- TD–INT6–1
- Rushing yards227104th
- Season line47 carries, 227 yds
- Receiving yards221127th
- Season line13 catches, 221 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles3066th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Eastern Michigan | Massachusetts |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateEastern Michigan offense vs Massachusetts defense | 32.7%127th | 40.0%75th |
| Early-down success rateMassachusetts offense vs Eastern Michigan defense | 37.4%40th | 46.5%12th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateEastern Michigan offense vs Massachusetts defense | 34.0%102nd | 38.9%64th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMassachusetts offense vs Eastern Michigan defense | 45.1%105th | 38.9%73rd |
| Explosive play rateEastern Michigan offense vs Massachusetts defense | 4.6%112th | 4.2%11th |
| Explosive play rateMassachusetts offense vs Eastern Michigan defense | 6.9%75th | 6.7%77th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 59.3%13th-highest | 38.1%128th-highest |
On 3rd down Eastern Michigan converts 34.0% (102nd) against a Massachusetts defense allowing 38.9% (64th).
On 3rd down Massachusetts converts 38.9% (73rd) against a Eastern Michigan defense allowing 45.1% (105th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Eastern Michigan | Massachusetts |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Chris Creighton | Joe Harasymiak |
| Tenureat this school | 13th season | 2nd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 63–86 | 4–12 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 63–86 | 4–12 |
| Offensive coordinator | Mike Piatkowski | Max Warner |
| Defensive coordinator | Tate Omli / Kasey Teegardin | Jared Keyte |
Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 4 times since 2021: Eastern Michigan won 4 and Massachusetts 0.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2024 | Eastern Michigan 28, Massachusetts 14 Eastern Michigan won | ||
| Sep 16, 2023 | Massachusetts 17, Eastern Michigan 19 Eastern Michigan won | ||
| Oct 1, 2022 | Massachusetts 13, Eastern Michigan 20 Eastern Michigan won | ||
| Sep 18, 2021 | Eastern Michigan 42, Massachusetts 28 Eastern Michigan won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Eastern Michigan Eagles
- Eastern Michigan Eagles team stats
- Eastern Michigan Eagles 20, Ohio Bobcats 24 (Oct 24)
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UMass Minutemen
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