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NCAAF · November 6, 2026

South Florida Bulls vs East Carolina Pirates Preview & Odds — November 6, 2026

South Florida Bulls

5-2

Quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr.

East Carolina Pirates

3-4

Quarterback Mitch Griffis

Friday, November 6 · 7:30 PM ET

USFOffense2026 regular season to dateECU

84th+0.021

EPA/play

−0.044110th

51st48.1%

Success %

42.8%115th

92nd22.4

PPG

21.4103rd

USFDefenseECU

15th−0.098

EPA/play allowed

−0.03736th

24th42.7%

Success % allowed

40.6%9th

7th14.1

Opp PPG

26.371st

USFRecent formECU

W@ Bowling Green 14-6Lvs Temple 13-17L@ UTSA 24-31Wvs Kent State 29-2Wvs UAB 30-10

Resultsoldest to newest

Wvs North Carolina Central 42-9Wvs Rice 28-12L@ UAB 17-30L@ Memphis 34-41Wvs Temple 17-9

6-2

Record

4-4

ATS

4-4

3-5

Over–under

2-6

USFHome and roadseason to dateECU

4-1

Home record

3-1

2-1

Road record

1-3

3-2

Home ATS

2-2

1-2

Road ATS

2-2

1-4

Home O/U

0-4

2-1

Road O/U

2-2

USFLast 10 gamesECU

Game by game

6-2

Last 8

4-4

+100

Net points

-1

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Rest & travelrest and travel

USFRest & travelECU

6 days

Days of rest

6 days

607 mi976 km · straight-line from home arena (estimate)

Travel to the game

Home

Venue

Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium

About these numbers

2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.

Margin of each of the last 8 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.

Distance is a straight-line estimate from each team's home arena, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game this season (7 = a normal week); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.

Matchup preview

South Florida (5-2) visits East Carolina (3-4) on Friday, November 6 at 7:30 PM ET.

South Florida has the 84th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 15th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, East Carolina has the 110th-ranked offense and the 36th-ranked defense. When South Florida has the ball, a 84th-ranked offense (+0.021 EPA per play) meets a 36th-ranked defense (−0.037 allowed); when East Carolina has it, a 110th-ranked offense (−0.044) meets a 15th-ranked defense (−0.098 allowed).

By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the South Florida offense is at 48.1% (51st) and the East Carolina offense at 42.8% (115th). South Florida scores 22.4 points per game (92nd) and allows 14.1 (7th); East Carolina scores 21.4 (103rd) and allows 26.3 (71st).

South Florida is 6-2 and 4-4 against the spread; its last game was a 30-10 win over UAB. East Carolina is 4-4 and 4-4 against the spread; its last game was a 17-9 win over Temple.

East Carolina is a 2.5-point favorite at home against South Florida. The spread opened with South Florida favored by 1.5. The total is 39.5, down from 45.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (South Florida +110, East Carolina -132) prices South Florida at 46% and East Carolina at 54%.

Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.

Market

Odds and line movement

Spreadfavorite flipped

OpenEast Carolina +1.5 (-115)
South Florida -1.5 (-105)

NowEast Carolina -2.5 (-110)
South Florida +2.5 (-110)

Totaldown 6

Open45.5 (o -110 / u -110)

Now39.5 (o -108 / u -112)

Moneyline

OpenSouth Florida -111 50%
East Carolina -109 50%

NowSouth Florida +110 46%
East Carolina -132 54%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Best available prices on Nov 5

South Florida +2.5+100Novig
East Carolina -2.5-104Novig
Over 39.5-104Novig
Under 39.5+102Novig
South Florida+122Novig
East Carolina-127Novig

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Players to watch

South Florida

QB · Michael Van Buren Jr.

Attempts181
Completion %64.1%84th
Passing yards1,273183rd
Yards per attempt7.0151st
TD–INT6–0

Leading rusher (RB) · D.J. Crowther

Rushing yards57855th
Season line121 carries, 578 yds, 7 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Bryson Rodgers

Receiving yards345197th
Season line33 catches, 345 yds, 2 TD

Leading tackler (DB) · Ayden Jackson

Tackles42329th

East Carolina

QB · Mitch Griffis

Attempts126
Completion %54.8%225th
Passing yards753241st
Yards per attempt6.0235th
TD–INT4–5

Leading rusher (RB) · TJ Engleman Jr.

Rushing yards68931st
Season line105 carries, 689 yds, 5 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Ray Ray Joseph Jr.

Receiving yards303258th
Season line33 catches, 303 yds, 3 TD

Leading tackler (LB) · DJ Johnson Jr.

Tackles56128th

Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 264 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured November 4, 5:38 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.

Success by situation

Situation	South Florida	East Carolina
Early-down success rateSouth Florida offense vs East Carolina defense	44.0%51st	37.7%9th
Early-down success rateEast Carolina offense vs South Florida defense	40.4%31st	39.9%108th
3rd-down conversion rateSouth Florida offense vs East Carolina defense	39.3%79th	31.5%9th
3rd-down conversion rateEast Carolina offense vs South Florida defense	39.4%61st	33.0%118th
Explosive play rateSouth Florida offense vs East Carolina defense	4.3%133rd	5.8%41st
Explosive play rateEast Carolina offense vs South Florida defense	5.2%20th	5.6%110th
Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks	43.3%122nd-highest	45.0%112th-highest

On 3rd down South Florida converts 39.3% (79th) against a East Carolina defense allowing 31.5% (9th).

On 3rd down East Carolina converts 33.0% (118th) against a South Florida defense allowing 39.4% (61st).

2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.

Coaching staff

Staff	South Florida	East Carolina
Head coach	Brian Hartline	Blake Harrell
Tenureat this school	1st season	3rd season
Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below	6–2	18–9
Career recordas an FBS head coach	6–2	18–9
Offensive coordinator	Tim Beck	Jordan Davis
Defensive coordinator	Josh Aldridge	Jordan Hankins

Staff list as of November 3, 6:50 a.m. ET.

Head-to-head

The teams have met 2 times since 2021: South Florida won 0 and East Carolina 2.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Oct 1, 2022 neutral	East Carolina 48, South Florida 28 East Carolina won
Oct 28, 2021	South Florida 14, East Carolina 29 East Carolina won

Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.

Result

After the final: score vs the closing line, Drive X-Ray and the graded official play, if there was one, appear here on this same page.

Teams