Kent State Golden Flashes vs South Florida Bulls Final — October 17, 2026
KENTOffense2026 regular season to dateUSF
KENTDefenseUSFKENTRecent formUSFKENTHome and roadseason to dateUSFKENTLast 10 gamesUSFRest & travelrest and travel
KENTRest & travelUSFAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Kent State (1-4) visited South Florida (3-2) on Saturday, October 17 at 7:00 PM ET.
Kent State has the 98th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 96th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, South Florida has the 61st-ranked offense and the 56th-ranked defense. When Kent State has the ball, a 98th-ranked offense (−0.017 EPA per play) meets a 56th-ranked defense (+0.028 allowed); when South Florida has it, a 61st-ranked offense (+0.077) meets a 96th-ranked defense (+0.133 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Kent State offense is at 45.8% (82nd) and the South Florida offense at 48.3% (53rd). Kent State scores 9.2 points per game (136th) and allows 36.0 (122nd); South Florida scores 19.6 (106th) and allows 17.4 (20th).
Kent State is 2-4; its last game was a 38-7 loss to Western Michigan. South Florida is 4-2 and 2-4 against the spread; its last game was a 31-24 loss to UTSA.
South Florida closed as a 20.5-point favorite at home against Kent State. The spread opened at South Florida -16.5. The total closed at 45.5, down from 49.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Kent State +965, South Florida -1895) prices Kent State at 9% and South Florida at 91%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Kent State Golden Flashes 2, South Florida Bulls 29
South Florida Bulls won by 27.
- Against the closing spread (South Florida Bulls -20.5): South Florida Bulls covered.
- Combined score 31 vs the closing total of 45.5: Under.
- South Florida Bulls closed at -1895 on the moneyline (a 91% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward South Florida Bulls.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Kent State Golden Flashes 9%, South Florida Bulls 91%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 12:32 — Kent State Golden Flashes ball, 3rd & 1 at USF 1#12 D.DeShields rush middle for 3 yards loss to the USF04 fumbled by #12 D.DeShields at USF02 recovered by USF #1 C.Hicks at USF04 #1 C.Hicks return 96 yards to…South Florida Bulls 79% → 94% (+14 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Kent State | Points added | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| -16.0 | Passingdropbacks | -0.7 |
| -2.0 | Rushingdesigned runs | -3.8 |
| +5.3 | Explosive plays3 plays · 1 plays | +2.1 |
| -11.2 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -3.3 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -1.2 |
| +5.8 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +1.3 |
| -6.5 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 3 · 1 of 3 | -5.8 |
| -27.8 | All plays | -8.0 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 15.3 points to South Florida Bulls. The final margin was 27.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
South Florida Bulls closed as the market favourite at 91% and won.
The line moved toward South Florida Bulls before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Kent State +16.5 (-110)
Kent State +20.5 (-110)
South Florida -1062 88%
South Florida -1895 91%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts155
- Completion %57.4%187th
- Passing yards975158th
- Yards per attempt6.3206th
- TD–INT4–6
- Rushing yards202236th
- Season line52 carries, 202 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards36869th
- Season line27 catches, 368 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles30307th
- Attempts152
- Completion %61.2%143rd
- Passing yards1,073133rd
- Yards per attempt7.1150th
- TD–INT5–0
- Rushing yards47638th
- Season line94 carries, 476 yds, 7 TD
- Receiving yards312112th
- Season line27 catches, 312 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles37148th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 14, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Kent State | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateKent State offense vs South Florida defense | 39.3%113th | 44.0%82nd |
| Early-down success rateSouth Florida offense vs Kent State defense | 51.6%137th | 44.3%56th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateKent State offense vs South Florida defense | 30.4%121st | 41.2%78th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSouth Florida offense vs Kent State defense | 46.2%108th | 40.7%72nd |
| Explosive play rateKent State offense vs South Florida defense | 4.9%114th | 5.6%31st |
| Explosive play rateSouth Florida offense vs Kent State defense | 8.7%119th | 4.9%116th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 51.9%59th-highest | 43.7%109th-highest |
On 3rd down Kent State converts 30.4% (121st) against a South Florida defense allowing 41.2% (78th).
On 3rd down South Florida converts 40.7% (72nd) against a Kent State defense allowing 46.2% (108th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Kent State | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Mark Carney | Brian Hartline |
| Tenureat this school | 2nd season | 1st season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 7–11 | 4–2 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 7–11 | 4–2 |
| Offensive coordinator | Clay Patterson | Tim Beck |
| Defensive coordinator | Cherokee Valeria | Josh Aldridge |
Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Teams
Kent State Golden Flashes
- Kent State Golden Flashes team stats
- Kent State Golden Flashes at Sacramento State Hornets (Oct 30)
- Akron Zips 20, Kent State Golden Flashes 35 (Oct 24)
- Kent State Golden Flashes 7, Western Michigan Broncos 38 (Oct 10)
- Ohio Bobcats 13, Kent State Golden Flashes 10 (Oct 3)
South Florida Bulls
- South Florida Bulls team stats
- UAB Blazers at South Florida Bulls (Oct 31)
- South Florida Bulls 24, UTSA Roadrunners 31 (Oct 8)
- Temple Owls 17, South Florida Bulls 13 (Oct 3)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 17, 2026
- Florida Atlantic Owls 24, Army Black Knights 56 (Oct 17)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 21, Boston College Eagles 27 (Oct 17)
- Ball State Cardinals 32, Bowling Green Falcons 31 (Oct 17)
- Charleston Southern Buccaneers 0, Clemson Tigers 37 (Oct 17)
- Ohio State Buckeyes 19, Indiana Hoosiers 15 (Oct 17)
- Georgia State Panthers 22, James Madison Dukes 49 (Oct 17)
- Kansas Jayhawks 24, Kansas State Wildcats 35 (Oct 17)
- Mississippi State Bulldogs 0, LSU Tigers 31 (Oct 17)
- Northwestern Wildcats 24, Michigan State Spartans 21 (Oct 17)
- Virginia Cavaliers 13, SMU Mustangs 23 (Oct 17)
- Florida Gators 27, Texas Longhorns 24 (Oct 17)
- Cincinnati Bearcats 42, West Virginia Mountaineers 45 (Oct 17)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 37, Maryland Terrapins 30 (Oct 17)
- UMass Minutemen 18, Buffalo Bulls 25 (Oct 17)
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