New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Preview & Odds — October 4, 2026
Matchup preview
The Patriots (1-2) visit the Bills (3-0) at Highmark Stadium on Sunday, October 4 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 4.
The Patriots have the 28th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 11th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Bills have the 2nd-ranked offense and the 24th-ranked defense. When the Patriots have the ball, a 28th-ranked offense (−0.146 EPA per play) meets a 24th-ranked defense (+0.075 allowed); when the Bills have it, a 2nd-ranked offense (+0.218) meets a 11th-ranked defense (−0.040 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Patriots offense is at 39.9% (26th) and the Bills offense at 50.0% (6th). Through the air, the Patriots average −0.122 EPA per dropback (27th) against a Bills pass defense ranked 21st; the Bills average +0.336 (3rd) against a Patriots pass defense ranked 6th. The Patriots score 12.0 points per game (31st) and allow 17.0 (6th); the Bills score 33.7 (1st) and allow 26.0 (21st).
Josh Allen has a 51.3% success rate (7th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Drake Maye's 46.1% (18th). Per dropback, Allen is at +0.349 EPA to Maye's −0.129, with 5 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions to Maye's 1 and 6.
The Patriots are 1-2 and 1-1-1 against the spread; their last game was a 35-6 loss to the Jaguars. The Bills are 3-0 and 3-0 against the spread; their last game was a 24-16 win over the Chargers.
The Bills are 6.5-point favorites at home against the Patriots. The spread has not moved since it opened. The total is 48.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Patriots +260, Bills -320) prices the Patriots at 27% and the Bills at 73%.
Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.
Tale of the tape
Patriots2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Quarterback matchup
- Dropbacks99
- Success rate46.1%18th
- EPA per dropback−0.12928th
- Completion %63.7%20th
- CPOE+2.818th
- Yards per attempt7.313th
- TD–INT1–6
- Sack rate9.1%30th
- Dropbacks101
- Success rate51.3%7th
- EPA per dropback+0.3493rd
- Completion %65.1%17th
- CPOE+4.511th
- Yards per attempt9.13rd
- TD–INT5–2
- Sack rate7.9%27th
Primary passer = most dropbacks over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game). Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
Players to watch
Mack Hollins leads the Patriots wide receivers with 156 receiving yards (28th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 19.5%. Rhamondre Stevenson has 116 rushing yards on 31 carries (33rd of 44 qualified running backs). DJ Moore leads the Bills wide receivers with 167 receiving yards (26th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 22.0%. James Cook has 346 rushing yards on 58 carries (3rd of 44 qualified running backs).
- Carries31
- Rush yards11633rd
- Yards per carry3.729th
- EPA per rush−0.08625th
- Rush success rate35.5%30th
- Targets / catches16 / 12
- Receiving yards15628th
- Target share19.5%42nd
- Yards per target9.827th
- EPA per target+0.55425th
- Targets / catches10 / 7
- Receiving yards7127th
- Target share12.2%26th
- Yards per target7.118th
- EPA per target−0.41634th
- Carries58
- Rush yards3463rd
- Yards per carry6.01st
- EPA per rush+0.0942nd
- Rush success rate51.7%2nd
- Targets / catches18 / 11
- Receiving yards16726th
- Target share22.0%34th
- Yards per target9.334th
- EPA per target+0.27444th
- Targets / catches17 / 14
- Receiving yards2631st
- Target share20.7%8th
- Yards per target15.51st
- EPA per target+0.7723rd
Lead back = most carries and lead receivers = most targets over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Patriots | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success ratePatriots offense vs Bills defense | 39.6%27th | 48.7%28th |
| Early-down success rateBills offense vs Patriots defense | 42.6%13th | 47.9%7th |
| Early-down EPA per playPatriots offense vs Bills defense | −0.13729th | +0.13430th |
| Early-down EPA per playBills offense vs Patriots defense | −0.0743rd | +0.1584th |
| 3rd-down conversion ratePatriots offense vs Bills defense | 32.5%29th | 40.5%15th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBills offense vs Patriots defense | 34.3%7th | 56.2%3rd |
| 3rd-down EPA per playPatriots offense vs Bills defense | −0.32229th | −0.3336th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBills offense vs Patriots defense | −0.14712th | +0.4772nd |
| Red-zone TD ratePatriots offense vs Bills defense | 14.3%32nd | 66.7%19th |
| Red-zone TD rateBills offense vs Patriots defense | 62.5%15th | 75.0%5th |
| Red-zone success ratePatriots offense vs Bills defense | 13.3%32nd | 48.6%25th |
| Red-zone success rateBills offense vs Patriots defense | 36.0%10th | 51.7%7th |
On early downs the Patriots succeed on 39.6% of plays (27th) against a Bills defense that allows 48.7% (28th); on 3rd down they convert 32.5% (29th) against a defense allowing 40.5% (15th). On early downs the Bills succeed on 47.9% of plays (7th) against a Patriots defense that allows 42.6% (13th); on 3rd down they convert 56.2% (3rd) against a defense allowing 34.3% (7th). The Patriots score touchdowns on 14.3% of red-zone trips (32nd). The Bills score touchdowns on 75.0% of red-zone trips (5th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Patriots | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Mike Vrabel | Joe Brady |
| Offensive coordinator | Josh McDaniels | Pete Carmichael |
| Defensive coordinator | Zak Kuhr | Jim Leonhard |
| Offense tendencies | Patriots | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | −2.2%19th-highest | −1.2%15th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 59.6%18th-highest | 56.7%24th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 53.7%20th-highest | 52.8%21st-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.8% | 51.1%26th-highest | 43.6%31st-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.1% | 1.1%30th-highest | 3.9%22nd-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 32.817th-slowest | 31.328th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.3% | 14.4%19th | 23.7%1st |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 9.3%14th | 14.0%1st |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 5.6%28th | 15.6%1st |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 8.5%29th | 7.8%27th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.90% | 4.49%32nd | 2.78%24th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.6 | 59.317th-most | 59.716th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.7% | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Defense | Patriots | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 6.7%12th | 7.3%9th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.3% | 10.3%6th | 19.1%26th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 5.2%6th | 12.2%29th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 8.7%13th | 10.8%21st |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.90% | 1.73%17th | 1.51%21st |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 17.3%11th | 21.8%3rd |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 16.0%17th | 16.8%21st |
The Patriots run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−2.2% pass rate over expected, 19th-highest), while the Bills sit at −1.2% (15th-highest). In neutral situations the Patriots take 32.8 seconds between snaps and the Bills 31.3, so the Bills play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Patriots have gone for it 2 of 3 times and the Bills 2 of 2.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest. Coaching staff: Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Injury report
No starters listed out, doubtful or questionable.
No starters listed out, doubtful or questionable.
Starters (and the primary passer) on the game's official injury report, as of the latest report captured before kickoff.
Travel and schedule
The Patriots have 7 days between games and the Bills 7. The Patriots travel about 386 miles. It is their 2nd straight game away from home.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Recent form and rest
PatriotsBillsLast five results this season, oldest to newest. Against-the-spread and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 23 times since 2015: the Patriots won 13 and the Bills 10. In the most recent meeting (December 14, 2025), the Bills won 35-31; the Bills averaged +0.261 EPA per play; the Patriots averaged +0.244 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | Bills 35, Patriots 31 Bills won | Bills -2.5 Bills covered | 49.5 over | Bills +0.261 · Patriots +0.244 |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Patriots 23, Bills 20 Patriots won | Bills -7.5 Patriots covered | 49.5 under | Bills +0.039 · Patriots +0.062 |
| Jan 5, 2025 | Bills 16, Patriots 23 Patriots won | Bills -3 Patriots covered | 36.5 over | Bills −0.067 · Patriots +0.033 |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Patriots 21, Bills 24 Bills won | Bills -14 Patriots covered | 48 under | Bills +0.034 · Patriots −0.025 |
| Dec 31, 2023 | Patriots 21, Bills 27 Bills won | Bills -15 Patriots covered | 40 over | Bills −0.065 · Patriots −0.283 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the nflverse closing lines.
Odds and line movement
Patriots +6.5 (-104)
Patriots +6.5 (-105)
Bills -335 74%
Bills -320 73%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Best available prices on Oct 2
- Patriots +6.5+111Novig
- Bills -7-105DraftKings
- Over 48-113BetRivers
- Under 48.5+104Polymarket
- Patriots+285Novig
- Bills-290ProphetX
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Teams
New England Patriots
Buffalo Bills
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