Los Angeles Rams vs Philadelphia Eagles Preview & Odds — October 4, 2026
Matchup preview
The Rams (1-2) visit the Eagles (2-1) at Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday, October 4 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 4.
The Rams have the 15th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 8th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Eagles have the 19th-ranked offense and the 25th-ranked defense. When the Rams have the ball, a 15th-ranked offense (+0.013 EPA per play) meets a 25th-ranked defense (+0.076 allowed); when the Eagles have it, a 19th-ranked offense (−0.046) meets a 8th-ranked defense (−0.070 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Rams offense is at 45.8% (12th) and the Eagles offense at 38.8% (28th). Through the air, the Rams average +0.072 EPA per dropback (17th) against a Eagles pass defense ranked 23rd; the Eagles average −0.062 (23rd) against a Rams pass defense ranked 4th. The Rams score 20.3 points per game (20th) and allow 21.0 (13th); the Eagles score 18.3 (23rd) and allow 23.0 (16th).
Matthew Stafford has a 44.4% success rate (21st of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Jalen Hurts' 41.3% (27th). Per dropback, Stafford is at +0.066 EPA to Hurts' −0.009, with 6 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions to Hurts' 5 and 3.
The Rams are 1-2 and 1-2 against the spread; their last game was a 30-26 loss to the Broncos. The Eagles are 2-1 and 0-3 against the spread; their last game was a 27-7 loss to the Bears.
The Rams are 3.5-point road favorites, with the Eagles getting the points at home. The spread opened at Rams -3. The total is 43, down from 44.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Rams -190, Eagles +160) prices the Rams at 63% and the Eagles at 37%.
Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.
Tale of the tape
Rams2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Quarterback matchup
- Dropbacks115
- Success rate44.4%21st
- EPA per dropback+0.06620th
- Completion %62.0%23rd
- CPOE+1.121st
- Yards per attempt8.17th
- TD–INT6–4
- Sack rate4.3%9th
- Dropbacks105
- Success rate41.3%27th
- EPA per dropback−0.00923rd
- Completion %64.4%18th
- CPOE+7.04th
- Yards per attempt7.118th
- TD–INT5–3
- Sack rate7.6%24th
Primary passer = most dropbacks over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game). Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
Players to watch
Davante Adams leads the Rams wide receivers with 358 receiving yards (3rd of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 27.4%. Kyren Williams has 214 rushing yards on 38 carries (9th of 44 qualified running backs). DeVonta Smith leads the Eagles wide receivers with 235 receiving yards (10th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 33.3%. Saquon Barkley has 174 rushing yards on 34 carries (19th of 44 qualified running backs).
- Carries38
- Rush yards2149th
- Yards per carry5.64th
- EPA per rush−0.03019th
- Rush success rate44.7%14th
- Targets / catches29 / 18
- Receiving yards3583rd
- Target share27.4%9th
- Yards per target12.37th
- EPA per target+0.52128th
- Targets / catches13 / 10
- Receiving yards7424th
- Target share17.1%14th
- Yards per target5.730th
- EPA per target−0.22131st
- Carries34
- Rush yards17419th
- Yards per carry5.18th
- EPA per rush+0.00512th
- Rush success rate38.2%26th
- Targets / catches27 / 19
- Receiving yards23510th
- Target share33.3%2nd
- Yards per target8.738th
- EPA per target+0.04860th
- Targets / catches7 / 5
- Receiving yards81
- Target share12.5%
- Yards per target11.6
- EPA per target+1.097
Lead back = most carries and lead receivers = most targets over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Rams | Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateRams offense vs Eagles defense | 45.5%11th | 43.5%16th |
| Early-down success rateEagles offense vs Rams defense | 39.9%8th | 35.7%30th |
| Early-down EPA per playRams offense vs Eagles defense | +0.0909th | −0.00117th |
| Early-down EPA per playEagles offense vs Rams defense | −0.01415th | −0.08023rd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateRams offense vs Eagles defense | 44.1%10th | 39.0%13th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateEagles offense vs Rams defense | 43.6%21st | 46.3%8th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playRams offense vs Eagles defense | −0.28527th | +0.14822nd |
| 3rd-down EPA per playEagles offense vs Rams defense | −0.2887th | +0.10212th |
| Red-zone TD rateRams offense vs Eagles defense | 45.5%26th | 63.6%17th |
| Red-zone TD rateEagles offense vs Rams defense | 62.5%15th | 66.7%9th |
| Red-zone success rateRams offense vs Eagles defense | 33.3%25th | 50.0%27th |
| Red-zone success rateEagles offense vs Rams defense | 34.5%7th | 42.3%16th |
On early downs the Rams succeed on 45.5% of plays (11th) against a Eagles defense that allows 43.5% (16th); on 3rd down they convert 44.1% (10th) against a defense allowing 39.0% (13th). On early downs the Eagles succeed on 35.7% of plays (30th) against a Rams defense that allows 39.9% (8th); on 3rd down they convert 46.3% (8th) against a defense allowing 43.6% (21st). The Rams score touchdowns on 45.5% of red-zone trips (26th). The Eagles score touchdowns on 66.7% of red-zone trips (9th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Rams | Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Sean McVay | Nick Sirianni |
| Offensive coordinator | Nathan Scheelhaase | Sean Mannion |
| Defensive coordinator | Chris Shula | Vic Fangio |
| Offense tendencies | Rams | Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | −0.8%13th-highest | −6.7%26th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 62.0%13th-highest | 62.4%12th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 57.8%10th-highest | 52.4%22nd-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.8% | 52.6%25th-highest | 68.2%5th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.1% | 8.3%8th-highest | 16.5%1st-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 32.520th-slowest | 34.18th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.3% | 17.5%10th | 16.3%12th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 11.4%4th | 10.2%7th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 12.3%5th | 6.2%25th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 4.2%7th | 7.5%24th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.90% | 3.12%26th | 2.94%25th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.6 | 64.08th-most | 56.726th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.7% | 2 of 2 | 1 of 3 |
| Defense | Rams | Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 2.8%29th | 3.1%28th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.3% | 10.8%7th | 16.0%20th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 4.9%5th | 8.5%15th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 6.8%6th | 6.8%7th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.90% | 1.66%18th | 0.00%32nd |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 12.4%25th | 8.2%31st |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 20.2%30th | 16.0%17th |
The Rams run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−0.8% pass rate over expected, 13th-highest), while the Eagles sit at −6.7% (26th-highest). In neutral situations the Rams take 32.5 seconds between snaps and the Eagles 34.1, so the Rams play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Rams have gone for it 2 of 2 times and the Eagles 1 of 3.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest. Coaching staff: Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Injury report
No starters listed out, doubtful or questionable.
No starters listed out, doubtful or questionable.
Starters (and the primary passer) on the game's official injury report, as of the latest report captured before kickoff.
Travel and schedule
The Rams have 7 days between games and the Eagles 6. The Rams travel about 2,396 miles, moving their body clock 3 hours ahead. It is their 2nd straight game away from home.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Recent form and rest
RamsEaglesLast five results this season, oldest to newest. Against-the-spread and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 7 times since 2015: the Rams won 1 and the Eagles 6. In the most recent meeting (September 21, 2025), the Eagles won 33-26; the Rams averaged −0.035 EPA per play; the Eagles averaged +0.017 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 2025 | Rams 26, Eagles 33 Eagles won | Eagles -3.5 Eagles covered | 45.5 over | Rams −0.035 · Eagles +0.017 |
| Jan 19, 2025 playoffs | Rams 22, Eagles 28 Eagles won | Eagles -7 Rams covered | 43.5 over | Rams −0.068 · Eagles +0.083 |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Eagles 37, Rams 20 Eagles won | Eagles -3 Eagles covered | 49 over | Rams −0.018 · Eagles +0.340 |
| Oct 8, 2023 | Eagles 23, Rams 14 Eagles won | Eagles -3.5 Eagles covered | 50.5 under | Rams −0.003 · Eagles +0.149 |
| Sep 20, 2020 | Rams 37, Eagles 19 Rams won | Eagles -2 Rams covered | 46 over | Rams +0.438 · Eagles −0.093 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the nflverse closing lines.
Odds and line movement
Rams -3 (-105)
Rams -3.5 (-110)
Eagles +130 42%
Eagles +160 37%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Best available prices on Oct 2
- Rams -3-128ProphetX
- Eagles +4-110ESPN BET
- Over 42.5-108Novig
- Under 42.5+108Polymarket
- Rams-178Polymarket
- Eagles+178Novig
Dig deeper
Teams
Los Angeles Rams
- Los Angeles Rams team stats
- Los Angeles Rams 26, Denver Broncos 30 (Sep 27)
- New York Giants 6, Los Angeles Rams 28 (Sep 21)
Philadelphia Eagles
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