Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams Final — October 18, 2026
ARIStarting quarterbacksexpected startersLAR
ARIOffense2026 regular season to dateLARARIDefenseLARARIRecent formLARARIHome and roadseason to dateLARInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
ARIRest & travelLARARIKey injuriesLARAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Cardinals (1-4) visited the Rams (2-3) at SoFi Stadium on Sunday, October 18 at 4:05 PM ET in Week 6.
The Cardinals have the 16th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 29th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Rams have the 9th-ranked offense and the 10th-ranked defense. When the Cardinals have the ball, a 16th-ranked offense (−0.018 EPA per play) meets a 10th-ranked defense (−0.042 allowed); when the Rams have it, a 9th-ranked offense (+0.073) meets a 29th-ranked defense (+0.124 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Cardinals offense is at 45.9% (12th) and the Rams offense at 47.3% (7th). Through the air, the Cardinals average +0.010 EPA per dropback (21st) against a Rams pass defense ranked 15th; the Rams average +0.125 (12th) against a Cardinals pass defense ranked 31st. The Cardinals score 21.6 points per game (23rd) and allow 32.4 (32nd); the Rams score 23.8 (13th) and allow 24.0 (20th).
Jacoby Brissett has a 48.9% success rate (13th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Matthew Stafford's 48.7% (14th). Per dropback, Brissett is at −0.001 EPA to Stafford's +0.127, with 9 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions to Stafford's 9 and 6.
The Cardinals are 1-4 and 2-3 against the spread; their last game was a 45-21 loss to the Lions. The Rams are 2-3 and 2-3 against the spread; their last game was a 37-34 loss to the Bills.
The Rams closed as 12.5-point favorites at home against the Cardinals. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 51.5, down from 52 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Cardinals +568, Rams -817) prices the Cardinals at 14% and the Rams at 86%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Arizona Cardinals 18, Los Angeles Rams 16
Arizona Cardinals won by 2.
- Against the closing spread (Los Angeles Rams -12.5): Arizona Cardinals covered.
- Combined score 34 vs the closing total of 51.5: Under.
- Arizona Cardinals closed at +568 on the moneyline (a 14% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Arizona Cardinals 14%, Los Angeles Rams 86%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q4 8:05 — Los Angeles Rams ball, 2nd & 21 at ARI 30(Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee to ARI 22 for 8 yards (0-C.Simon). FUMBLES (0-C.Simon), RECOVERED by ARI-29-D.Burke at ARI 25. ** Injury Update: ARI-97-W.Nolen has returned to the game.Arizona Cardinals 50% → 71% (+21 pts) · Drive 15 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 2:01 — Los Angeles Rams ball, 1st & 15 at LA 28(Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 12-P.Nacua to ARI 34 for 43 yards (21-G.Williams) [56-D.Robinson].Los Angeles Rams 18% → 35% (+18 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:52 — Los Angeles Rams ball, 2nd & 3 at ARI 69-M.Stafford pass short right to 84-C.PaLos Angeles Rams 54% → 68% (+14 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:47 — Arizona Cardinals ball, 1st & 10 at ARI 35(Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep middle to 86-J.Brooks to LA 44 for 21 yards (30-J.Wallace). PENALTY on LA-30-J.Wallace, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LA 44. Penalty on LA-10-J.Stewart, Defensive OffArizona Cardinals 37% → 66% (+29 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:03 — Arizona Cardinals ball, 4th & 6 at LA 2538-C.Ryland 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.Arizona Cardinals 55% → 100% (+45 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
Arizona Cardinals won after falling as low as 11% (Q1 11:07).
Game DNA
| Cardinals | Points added | Rams |
|---|---|---|
| +0.8 | Passingdropbacks | -7.9 |
| -1.4 | Rushingdesigned runs | -4.0 |
| +11.7 | Explosive plays6 plays · 7 plays | +8.6 |
| -4.3 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -4.3 |
| +1.9 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +0.3 |
| -1.1 | Penalties5 for 51 yds · 4 for 31 yds | +0.5 |
| -8.3 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 5 · 2 of 4 | -1.4 |
| -0.6 | All plays | -8.0 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 8.7 points to Arizona Cardinals. The final margin was 2.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Los Angeles Rams closed as the market favourite at 86% and lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Cardinals +12.5 (-110)
Cardinals +12.5 (-108)
Rams -874 86%
Rams -817 86%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Michael Wilson has 288 receiving yards for the Cardinals (20th of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 26.3%. Jeremiyah Love has 245 rushing yards on 67 carries (23rd of 41 qualified running backs). Davante Adams has 441 receiving yards for the Rams (6th of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 21.4%. Kyren Williams has 343 rushing yards on 70 carries (12th of 41 qualified running backs).
- Carries67
- Rush yards24523rd
- Yards per carry3.729th
- EPA per rush−0.07623rd
- Rush success rate43.3%11th
- Targets / catches51 / 29
- Receiving yards28820th
- Target share26.3%13th
- Yards per target5.676th
- EPA per target−0.13877th
- Targets / catches56 / 42
- Receiving yards3083rd
- Target share28.9%3rd
- Yards per target5.531st
- EPA per target+0.29416th
- Carries70
- Rush yards34312th
- Yards per carry4.910th
- EPA per rush+0.02513th
- Rush success rate42.9%15th
- Targets / catches45 / 27
- Receiving yards4416th
- Target share21.4%29th
- Yards per target9.823rd
- EPA per target+0.41430th
- Targets / catches25 / 20
- Receiving yards22411th
- Target share13.9%25th
- Yards per target9.08th
- EPA per target+0.41210th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Cardinals | Rams |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateCardinals offense vs Rams defense | 45.4%13th | 43.9%19th |
| Early-down success rateRams offense vs Cardinals defense | 42.0%11th | 46.4%8th |
| Early-down EPA per playCardinals offense vs Rams defense | +0.02711th | +0.07624th |
| Early-down EPA per playRams offense vs Cardinals defense | +0.00215th | +0.0889th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateCardinals offense vs Rams defense | 41.1%13th | 32.8%6th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateRams offense vs Cardinals defense | 42.1%20th | 45.3%7th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playCardinals offense vs Rams defense | −0.17928th | −0.4481st |
| 3rd-down EPA per playRams offense vs Cardinals defense | +0.51632nd | −0.03413th |
| Red-zone TD rateCardinals offense vs Rams defense | 61.1%16th | 64.7%22nd |
| Red-zone TD rateRams offense vs Cardinals defense | 77.8%27th | 65.0%11th |
| Red-zone success rateCardinals offense vs Rams defense | 37.1%25th | 36.5%5th |
| Red-zone success rateRams offense vs Cardinals defense | 36.9%6th | 49.1%5th |
On early downs the Cardinals succeed on 45.4% of plays (13th) against a Rams defense that allows 43.9% (19th); on 3rd down they convert 41.1% (13th) against a defense allowing 32.8% (6th). On early downs the Rams succeed on 46.4% of plays (8th) against a Cardinals defense that allows 42.0% (11th); on 3rd down they convert 45.3% (7th) against a defense allowing 42.1% (20th). The Cardinals score touchdowns on 61.1% of red-zone trips (16th). The Rams score touchdowns on 65.0% of red-zone trips (11th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Cardinals | Rams |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Mike LaFleur | Sean McVay |
| Offensive coordinator | Nathaniel Hackett | Nathan Scheelhaase |
| Defensive coordinator | Nick Rallis | Chris Shula |
| Offense tendencies | Cardinals | Rams |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.0% | 1.1%9th-highest | 2.0%8th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.9% | 65.3%8th-highest | 66.0%7th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.3% | 59.0%10th-highest | 62.4%4th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 60.8% | 57.1%21st-highest | 55.2%23rd-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.4% | 12.2%4th-highest | 11.3%5th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.9 | 32.720th-slowest | 32.719th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.2% | 8.4%32nd | 14.9%17th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.8% | 3.4%32nd | 9.5%13th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.5% | 4.4%31st | 10.2%14th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 5.6%12th | 3.1%3rd |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.94% | 1.52%12th | 2.31%22nd |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.2 | 65.86th-most | 69.22nd-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.4% | 5 of 9 | 4 of 5 |
| Defense | Cardinals | Rams |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 7.0%11th | 4.8%24th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.2% | 20.0%30th | 13.4%10th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.8% | 13.1%32nd | 7.0%5th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.5% | 10.9%24th | 8.5%12th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.94% | 2.03%16th | 1.68%21st |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 14.1%21st | 12.1%27th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 15.8%19th | 14.5%11th |
The Cardinals pass more often than down, distance and score would suggest (1.1% pass rate over expected, 9th-highest), while the Rams sit at 2.0% (8th-highest). In neutral situations the Cardinals take 32.7 seconds between snaps and the Rams 32.7, so the Cardinals play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Cardinals have gone for it 5 of 9 times and the Rams 4 of 5.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 23 times since 2015: the Cardinals won 5 and the Rams 18. In the most recent meeting (January 4, 2026), the Rams won 37-20; the Cardinals averaged +0.036 EPA per play; the Rams averaged +0.236 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2026 | Cardinals 20, Rams 37 Rams won | Rams -14.5 Rams covered | 49.5 over | Cardinals +0.036 · Rams +0.236 |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Rams 45, Cardinals 17 Rams won | Rams -9.5 Rams covered | 49.5 over | Cardinals −0.062 · Rams +0.439 |
| Dec 28, 2024 | Cardinals 9, Rams 13 Rams won | Rams -6.5 Cardinals covered | 48 under | Cardinals −0.009 · Rams −0.031 |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Rams 10, Cardinals 41 Cardinals won | Rams -1 Cardinals covered | 47.5 over | Cardinals +0.347 · Rams −0.263 |
| Nov 26, 2023 | Rams 37, Cardinals 14 Rams won | Rams -3 Rams covered | 45 over | Cardinals −0.138 · Rams +0.335 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Arizona Cardinals
- Arizona Cardinals team stats
- Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (Nov 1)
- Denver Broncos 30, Arizona Cardinals 16 (Oct 25)
- Detroit Lions 45, Arizona Cardinals 21 (Oct 11)
- Arizona Cardinals 24, New York Giants 36 (Oct 4)
Los Angeles Rams
- Los Angeles Rams team stats
- Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams (Nov 1)
- Los Angeles Rams 35, Las Vegas Raiders 21 (Oct 25)
- Buffalo Bills 37, Los Angeles Rams 34 (Oct 12)
- Los Angeles Rams 24, Philadelphia Eagles 20 (Oct 4)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 18, 2026
- Houston Texans 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 31 (Oct 18)
- Chicago Bears 31, Atlanta Falcons 23 (Oct 18)
- Baltimore Ravens 10, Cleveland Browns 13 (Oct 18)
- Tennessee Titans 26, Indianapolis Colts 20 (Oct 18)
- New York Jets 19, New England Patriots 26 (Oct 18)
- New Orleans Saints 34, New York Giants 27 (Oct 18)
- Carolina Panthers 25, Philadelphia Eagles 14 (Oct 18)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 26, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 (Oct 18)
- Los Angeles Chargers 6, Kansas City Chiefs 22 (Oct 18)
- Buffalo Bills 33, Las Vegas Raiders 30 (Oct 18)
- Dallas Cowboys 13, Green Bay Packers 23 (Oct 18)
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