Los Angeles Chargers vs Buffalo Bills Final — September 27, 2026
Final score and result vs the closing line
Los Angeles Chargers 16, Buffalo Bills 24
Buffalo Bills won by 8.
- Against the closing spread (Buffalo Bills -7): Buffalo Bills covered.
- Combined score 40 vs the closing total of 50.5: Under.
- Buffalo Bills closed at -350 on the moneyline (a 74% no-vig market-implied chance).
The pre-game matchup
The Chargers (0-2) visited the Bills (2-0) at Highmark Stadium on Sunday, September 27 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 3.
The Chargers have the 30th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 18th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Bills have the 1st-ranked offense and the 26th-ranked defense. When the Chargers have the ball, a 30th-ranked offense (−0.253 EPA per play) meets a 26th-ranked defense (+0.144 allowed); when the Bills have it, a 1st-ranked offense (+0.344) meets a 18th-ranked defense (+0.035 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Chargers offense is at 37.2% (28th) and the Bills offense at 50.0% (5th). Through the air, the Chargers average −0.114 EPA per dropback (28th) against a Bills pass defense ranked 27th; the Bills average +0.531 (2nd) against a Chargers pass defense ranked 25th. The Chargers score 14.0 points per game (29th) and allow 26.0 (21st); the Bills score 38.5 (1st) and allow 31.0 (28th).
Josh Allen has a 55.0% success rate (6th of 33 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Justin Herbert's 38.8% (29th). Per dropback, Allen is at +0.552 EPA to Herbert's −0.114, with 5 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions to Herbert's 2 and 3.
The Chargers are 0-2 and 0-2 against the spread; their last game was a 26-14 loss to the Raiders. The Bills are 2-0 and 2-0 against the spread; their last game was a 41-31 win over the Lions.
The Bills closed as 7-point favorites at home against the Chargers. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed 50.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Chargers +275, Bills -350) prices the Chargers at 26% and the Bills at 74%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Tale of the tape
Chargers2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Quarterback matchup
- Dropbacks66
- Success rate38.8%29th
- EPA per dropback−0.11428th
- Completion %59.3%27th
- CPOE−6.228th
- Yards per attempt7.414th
- TD–INT2–3
- Sack rate9.1%28th
- Dropbacks70
- Success rate55.0%6th
- EPA per dropback+0.5522nd
- Completion %66.7%17th
- CPOE+6.910th
- Yards per attempt9.72nd
- TD–INT5–0
- Sack rate5.7%14th
Primary passer = most dropbacks over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among 33 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game). Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
Players to watch
Quentin Johnston leads the Chargers wide receivers with 24 receiving yards (82nd of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 20.8%. Omarion Hampton has 137 rushing yards on 35 carries (11th of 45 qualified running backs). Khalil Shakir leads the Bills wide receivers with 78 receiving yards (46th of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 21.4%. James Cook has 192 rushing yards on 34 carries (4th of 45 qualified running backs).
- Carries35
- Rush yards13711th
- Yards per carry3.929th
- EPA per rush−0.44743rd
- Rush success rate37.1%23rd
- Targets / catches11 / 3
- Receiving yards2482nd
- Target share20.8%35th
- Yards per target2.285th
- EPA per target−0.31473rd
- Targets / catches8 / 6
- Receiving yards6715th
- Target share15.1%18th
- Yards per target8.411th
- EPA per target−0.63332nd
- Carries34
- Rush yards1924th
- Yards per carry5.64th
- EPA per rush+0.1464th
- Rush success rate44.1%12th
- Targets / catches12 / 7
- Receiving yards7846th
- Target share21.4%30th
- Yards per target6.556th
- EPA per target+0.09253rd
- Targets / catches14 / 12
- Receiving yards2251st
- Target share25.0%4th
- Yards per target16.11st
- EPA per target+1.0593rd
Lead back = most carries and lead receivers = most targets over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Chargers | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateChargers offense vs Bills defense | 38.6%26th | 47.1%26th |
| Early-down success rateBills offense vs Chargers defense | 42.9%17th | 47.9%5th |
| Early-down EPA per playChargers offense vs Bills defense | −0.17530th | +0.14430th |
| Early-down EPA per playBills offense vs Chargers defense | +0.04220th | +0.2891st |
| 3rd-down conversion rateChargers offense vs Bills defense | 31.8%27th | 40.7%19th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBills offense vs Chargers defense | 38.5%16th | 60.0%3rd |
| 3rd-down EPA per playChargers offense vs Bills defense | −0.28227th | −0.24311th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBills offense vs Chargers defense | +0.10020th | +0.9041st |
| Red-zone TD rateChargers offense vs Bills defense | 80.0%5th | 87.5%28th |
| Red-zone TD rateBills offense vs Chargers defense | 50.0%9th | 75.0%6th |
| Red-zone success rateChargers offense vs Bills defense | 40.0%19th | 54.5%24th |
| Red-zone success rateBills offense vs Chargers defense | 21.7%6th | 47.4%10th |
On early downs the Chargers succeed on 38.6% of plays (26th) against a Bills defense that allows 47.1% (26th); on 3rd down they convert 31.8% (27th) against a defense allowing 40.7% (19th). On early downs the Bills succeed on 47.9% of plays (5th) against a Chargers defense that allows 42.9% (17th); on 3rd down they convert 60.0% (3rd) against a defense allowing 38.5% (16th). The Chargers score touchdowns on 80.0% of red-zone trips (5th). The Bills score touchdowns on 75.0% of red-zone trips (6th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Chargers | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Jim Harbaugh | Joe Brady |
| Offensive coordinator | Mike McDaniel | Pete Carmichael |
| Defensive coordinator | Chris O'Leary | Jim Leonhard |
| Offense tendencies | Chargers | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.4% | −11.1%31st-highest | 4.6%2nd-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.0% | 58.4%20th-highest | 60.2%16th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.7% | 51.1%21st-highest | 58.3%9th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.4% | 73.5%2nd-highest | 41.9%31st-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.2% | 4.4%20th-highest | 2.6%26th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.1 | 35.73rd-slowest | 32.026th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.3% | 15.0%17th | 25.8%1st |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 5.0%29th | 15.2%1st |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.4% | 8.9%15th | 15.2%4th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.5% | 9.1%27th | 5.6%13th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.85% | 4.42%30th | 0.00%1st |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 59.8 | 56.522nd-most | 58.516th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 60.0% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Defense | Chargers | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.5% | 4.2%27th | 8.1%10th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.3% | 13.2%11th | 20.3%27th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 8.8%17th | 11.4%24th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.4% | 3.6%2nd | 10.4%20th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.85% | 0.79%27th | 1.48%22nd |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 16.1% | 19.7%6th | 22.1%4th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 16.1% | 19.7%27th | 15.7%14th |
The Chargers run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−11.1% pass rate over expected, 31st-highest), while the Bills sit at 4.6% (2nd-highest). In neutral situations the Chargers take 35.7 seconds between snaps and the Bills 32.0, so the Bills play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Chargers have gone for it 0 of 1 times and the Bills 1 of 1.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest. Coaching staff: Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Injury report
- Kayode Awosika GOutFibula
- Elijah Molden SOutHamstring
- Trey Pipkins TOutKnee
- Charlie Kolar TEOutForearm
- T.J. Sanders DEOutIllness
- Ed Oliver DTQuestionableHip
- DJ Moore WRQuestionableShoulder
- Keon Coleman WRQuestionableAnkle
Starters (and the primary passer) on the game's official injury report, as of the latest report captured before kickoff.
Travel and schedule
The Chargers have 7 days between games and the Bills 10. The Chargers travel about 2,206 miles, moving their body clock 3 hours ahead.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Recent form and rest
ChargersBillsLast five results this season, oldest to newest. Against-the-spread and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 4 times since 2015: the Chargers won 2 and the Bills 2. In the most recent meeting (December 23, 2023), the Bills won 24-22; the Bills averaged +0.069 EPA per play; the Chargers averaged −0.095 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2023 | Bills 24, Chargers 22 Bills won | Bills -13 Chargers covered | 44.5 over | Bills +0.069 · Chargers −0.095 |
| Nov 29, 2020 | Chargers 17, Bills 27 Bills won | Bills -4.5 Bills covered | 51 under | Bills −0.037 · Chargers −0.066 |
| Sep 16, 2018 | Chargers 31, Bills 20 Chargers won | Chargers -7.5 Chargers covered | 41.5 over | Bills −0.081 · Chargers +0.262 |
| Nov 19, 2017 | Bills 24, Chargers 54 Chargers won | Chargers -7 Chargers covered | 41.5 over | Bills −0.207 · Chargers +0.230 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the nflverse closing lines.
Closing line and line movement
Chargers +7 (-108)
Chargers +7 (-108)
Bills -375 75%
Bills -350 74%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Dig deeper
Teams
Los Angeles Chargers
- Los Angeles Chargers team stats
- Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks (Oct 4)
- Las Vegas Raiders 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14 (Sep 20)
- Arizona Cardinals 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14 (Sep 13)
Buffalo Bills
- Buffalo Bills team stats
- New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (Oct 4)
- Detroit Lions 31, Buffalo Bills 41 (Sep 17)
- Buffalo Bills 36, Houston Texans 31 (Sep 13)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on September 27, 2026
- Houston Texans 17, Indianapolis Colts 19 (Sep 27)
- Kansas City Chiefs 24, Miami Dolphins 10 (Sep 27)
- Tennessee Titans 7, New York Giants 12 (Sep 27)
- Cincinnati Bengals 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 30 (Sep 27)
- Seattle Seahawks 31, Washington Commanders 33 (Sep 27)
- Minnesota Vikings 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 (Sep 27)
- Baltimore Ravens 34, Dallas Cowboys 31 (Sep 27)
- Los Angeles Rams 26, Denver Broncos 30 (Sep 27)
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