Los Angeles Rams vs Las Vegas Raiders Final — October 25, 2026
LARStarting quarterbacksexpected startersLV
LAROffense2026 regular season to dateLVLARDefenseLVLARRecent formLVLARHome and roadseason to dateLVInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
LARRest & travelLVLARKey injuriesLVAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Rams (2-4) visited the Raiders (3-3) at Allegiant Stadium on Sunday, October 25 at 4:25 PM ET in Week 7.
The Rams have the 10th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 10th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Raiders have the 14th-ranked offense and the 22nd-ranked defense. When the Rams have the ball, a 10th-ranked offense (+0.041 EPA per play) meets a 22nd-ranked defense (+0.033 allowed); when the Raiders have it, a 14th-ranked offense (+0.019) meets a 10th-ranked defense (−0.038 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Rams offense is at 47.3% (7th) and the Raiders offense at 42.6% (17th). Through the air, the Rams average +0.082 EPA per dropback (15th) against a Raiders pass defense ranked 25th; the Raiders average +0.165 (9th) against a Rams pass defense ranked 16th. The Rams score 22.5 points per game (20th) and allow 23.0 (17th); the Raiders score 27.0 (6th) and allow 27.0 (26th).
Over the last five games, the Rams rank 7th on offense and 7th on defense by EPA per play; the Raiders rank 13th and 25th.
Kirk Cousins has a 48.6% success rate (12th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Matthew Stafford's 48.5% (14th). Per dropback, Cousins is at +0.186 EPA to Stafford's +0.088, with 14 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions to Stafford's 11 and 6.
The Rams are 2-4 and 2-4 against the spread; their last game was a 18-16 loss to the Cardinals. The Raiders are 3-3 and 5-1 against the spread; their last game was a 33-30 loss to the Bills.
The Rams closed as 3.5-point road favorites, with the Raiders getting the points at home. The spread opened at Rams -6. The total closed at 49.5, up from 47.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Rams -178, Raiders +146) prices the Rams at 61% and the Raiders at 39%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Los Angeles Rams 35, Las Vegas Raiders 21
Los Angeles Rams won by 14.
- Against the closing spread (Las Vegas Raiders +3.5): Los Angeles Rams covered.
- Combined score 56 vs the closing total of 49.5: Over.
- Los Angeles Rams closed at -178 on the moneyline (a 61% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 8 points toward Las Vegas Raiders.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Los Angeles Rams 61%, Las Vegas Raiders 39%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 11:44 — Las Vegas Raiders ball, 1st & 10 at LV 31(Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep middle to 1-T.Tucker. PENALTY on LA-30-J.Wallace, Defensive Pass Interference, 39 yards, enforced at LV 31 - No Play.Las Vegas Raiders 40% → 45% (+5 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 10:53 — Las Vegas Raiders ball, 4th & 13 at LA 3314-M.Gay 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.Los Angeles Rams 61% → 69% (+7 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Rams | Points added | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| -0.7 | Passingdropbacks | -13.3 |
| +2.7 | Rushingdesigned runs | -2.7 |
| +6.7 | Explosive plays8 plays · 8 plays | +15.9 |
| -10.3 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +2.8 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +0.5 |
| -1.8 | Penalties7 for 90 yds · 6 for 64 yds | +2.1 |
| +13.0 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 5 of 5 · 1 of 5 | -10.7 |
| +12.3 | All plays | -8.1 |
The biggest single gap: red zone, worth about 23.7 points to Los Angeles Rams. The final margin was 14.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Los Angeles Rams closed as the market favourite at 61% and won.
The line moved toward Las Vegas Raiders before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Rams -6 (-107)
Rams -3.5 (+100)
Raiders +210 31%
Raiders +146 39%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Puka Nacua has 417 receiving yards for the Rams (15th of 79 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 31.9%. Kyren Williams has 393 rushing yards on 80 carries (12th of 40 qualified running backs). Tre Tucker has 371 receiving yards for the Raiders (18th of 79 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 16.6%. Ashton Jeanty has 313 rushing yards on 98 carries (19th of 40 qualified running backs).
- Carries80
- Rush yards39312th
- Yards per carry4.97th
- EPA per rush+0.02313th
- Rush success rate42.5%15th
- Targets / catches52 / 37
- Receiving yards41715th
- Target share31.9%3rd
- Yards per target8.040th
- EPA per target+0.12756th
- Targets / catches29 / 24
- Receiving yards24613th
- Target share13.7%24th
- Yards per target8.58th
- EPA per target+0.22517th
- Carries98
- Rush yards31319th
- Yards per carry3.235th
- EPA per rush−0.29438th
- Rush success rate31.6%35th
- Targets / catches35 / 24
- Receiving yards37118th
- Target share16.6%49th
- Yards per target10.613th
- EPA per target+0.54917th
- Targets / catches43 / 28
- Receiving yards3822nd
- Target share28.1%3rd
- Yards per target8.96th
- EPA per target+0.4797th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Rams | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateRams offense vs Raiders defense | 46.5%7th | 45.5%25th |
| Early-down success rateRaiders offense vs Rams defense | 45.3%24th | 41.9%20th |
| Early-down EPA per playRams offense vs Raiders defense | +0.07710th | +0.07125th |
| Early-down EPA per playRaiders offense vs Rams defense | +0.08026th | −0.01918th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateRams offense vs Raiders defense | 44.6%7th | 42.5%22nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateRaiders offense vs Rams defense | 32.9%7th | 43.4%8th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playRams offense vs Raiders defense | −0.05717th | −0.09611th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playRaiders offense vs Rams defense | −0.4481st | +0.2552nd |
| Red-zone TD rateRams offense vs Raiders defense | 62.5%14th | 73.9%27th |
| Red-zone TD rateRaiders offense vs Rams defense | 52.4%9th | 54.2%17th |
| Red-zone success rateRams offense vs Raiders defense | 48.4%7th | 50.8%28th |
| Red-zone success rateRaiders offense vs Rams defense | 35.8%5th | 28.1%32nd |
On early downs the Rams succeed on 46.5% of plays (7th) against a Raiders defense that allows 45.5% (25th); on 3rd down they convert 44.6% (7th) against a defense allowing 42.5% (22nd). On early downs the Raiders succeed on 41.9% of plays (20th) against a Rams defense that allows 45.3% (24th); on 3rd down they convert 43.4% (8th) against a defense allowing 32.9% (7th). The Rams score touchdowns on 62.5% of red-zone trips (14th). The Raiders score touchdowns on 54.2% of red-zone trips (17th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Rams | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Sean McVay | Klint Kubiak |
| Offensive coordinator | Nathan Scheelhaase | Andrew Janocko |
| Defensive coordinator | Chris Shula | Rob Leonard |
| Offense tendencies | Rams | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −1.6% | 1.0%8th-highest | −2.6%20th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 61.4% | 65.8%5th-highest | 61.6%16th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.8% | 62.9%3rd-highest | 55.3%18th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 61.5% | 55.7%23rd-highest | 57.6%21st-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.4% | 11.2%4th-highest | 6.7%12th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.9 | 31.926th-slowest | 33.811th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.2% | 15.0%16th | 18.5%7th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.5% | 8.7%16th | 9.5%10th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.3% | 10.1%13th | 6.9%23rd |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.1% | 3.8%5th | 3.4%4th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.92% | 2.23%21st | 1.59%14th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.5 | 67.03rd-most | 62.510th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 60.4% | 5 of 8 | 5 of 9 |
| Defense | Rams | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.1% | 3.9%28th | 6.8%13th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.2% | 13.0%8th | 16.6%21st |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.5% | 6.8%8th | 9.8%23rd |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.3% | 7.9%6th | 14.0%31st |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.92% | 1.64%21st | 2.73%3rd |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.9% | 12.5%29th | 20.0%4th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.9% | 15.5%16th | 17.8%26th |
The Rams pass more often than down, distance and score would suggest (1.0% pass rate over expected, 8th-highest), while the Raiders sit at −2.6% (20th-highest). In neutral situations the Rams take 31.9 seconds between snaps and the Raiders 33.8, so the Rams play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Rams have gone for it 5 of 8 times and the Raiders 5 of 9.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 3 times since 2015: the Rams won 3 and the Raiders 0. In the most recent meeting (October 20, 2024), the Rams won 20-15; the Rams averaged −0.288 EPA per play; the Raiders averaged −0.341 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2024 | Raiders 15, Rams 20 Rams won | Rams -7 Raiders covered | 43 under | Rams −0.288 · Raiders −0.341 |
| Dec 8, 2022 | Raiders 16, Rams 17 Rams won | Raiders -6.5 Rams covered | 42.5 under | Rams −0.116 · Raiders +0.024 |
| Sep 10, 2018 | Rams 33, Raiders 13 Rams won | Rams -6 Rams covered | 47.5 under | Rams +0.137 · Raiders −0.197 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Los Angeles Rams
- Los Angeles Rams team stats
- Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams (Nov 1)
- Arizona Cardinals 18, Los Angeles Rams 16 (Oct 18)
- Buffalo Bills 37, Los Angeles Rams 34 (Oct 12)
- Los Angeles Rams 24, Philadelphia Eagles 20 (Oct 4)
Las Vegas Raiders
More NFL games on October 25, 2026
- Pittsburgh Steelers 16, New Orleans Saints 10 (Oct 25)
- San Francisco 49ers 20, Atlanta Falcons 29 (Oct 25)
- Cincinnati Bengals 35, Baltimore Ravens 13 (Oct 25)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 43, Carolina Panthers 13 (Oct 25)
- New York Giants 27, Houston Texans 21 (Oct 25)
- Indianapolis Colts 10, Minnesota Vikings 16 (Oct 25)
- Miami Dolphins 28, New York Jets 25 (Oct 25)
- Cleveland Browns 27, Tennessee Titans 24 (Oct 25)
- Denver Broncos 30, Arizona Cardinals 16 (Oct 25)
- Green Bay Packers 17, Detroit Lions 20 (Oct 25)
- Kansas City Chiefs 3, Seattle Seahawks 20 (Oct 25)
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