New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears Final — October 22, 2026
NEStarting quarterbacksexpected startersCHI
NEOffense2026 regular season to dateCHINEDefenseCHINERecent formCHINEHome and roadseason to dateCHIInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
NERest & travelCHINEKey injuriesCHIAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Patriots (4-2) visited the Bears (4-2) at Soldier Field on Thursday, October 22 at 8:15 PM ET in Week 7.
The Patriots have the 11th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 18th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Bears have the 13th-ranked offense and the 15th-ranked defense. When the Patriots have the ball, a 11th-ranked offense (+0.040 EPA per play) meets a 15th-ranked defense (−0.032 allowed); when the Bears have it, a 13th-ranked offense (+0.025) meets a 18th-ranked defense (−0.014 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Patriots offense is at 45.0% (12th) and the Bears offense at 46.8% (10th). Through the air, the Patriots average +0.182 EPA per dropback (7th) against a Bears pass defense ranked 9th; the Bears average +0.090 (14th) against a Patriots pass defense ranked 14th. The Patriots score 22.7 points per game (18th) and allow 18.8 (5th); the Bears score 25.0 (12th) and allow 19.8 (6th).
Over the last five games, the Patriots rank 9th on offense and 14th on defense by EPA per play; the Bears rank 20th and 6th.
Drake Maye has a 50.9% success rate (5th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Caleb Williams' 50.0% (8th). Per dropback, Maye is at +0.184 EPA to Williams' +0.290, with 11 touchdown passes and 7 interceptions to Williams' 3 and 1.
The Patriots are 4-2 and 3-1-2 against the spread; their last game was a 26-19 win over the Jets. The Bears are 4-2 and 4-2 against the spread; their last game was a 31-23 win over the Falcons. Both teams are on a short week.
The Bears closed as 3-point favorites at home against the Patriots. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 50.5, up from 49.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Patriots +130, Bears -155) prices the Patriots at 42% and the Bears at 58%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
New England Patriots 24, Chicago Bears 30
Chicago Bears won by 6.
- Against the closing spread (Chicago Bears -3): Chicago Bears covered.
- Combined score 54 vs the closing total of 50.5: Over.
- Chicago Bears closed at -155 on the moneyline (a 58% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Chicago Bears.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (New England Patriots 42%, Chicago Bears 58%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 11:35 — New England Patriots ball, 4th & 5 at CHI 45(Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at CHI 46 for -1 yards (6-K.Gordon).Chicago Bears 59% → 67% (+8 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 2:32 — Chicago Bears ball, 2nd & 9 at CHI 38(Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 10-L.Burden to NE 4 for 58 yards (31-K.Byard).Chicago Bears 72% → 80% (+9 pts) · Drive 6 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 3:32 — New England Patriots ball, 1st & 10 at CHI 15(Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right intended for 82-E.Raridon INTERCEPTED by 48-D.Jackson at CHI -7. Touchback.Chicago Bears 66% → 80% (+14 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 0:03 — New England Patriots ball, 1st & 10 at CHI 48(Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 38-R.Stevenson for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.New England Patriots 11% → 22% (+11 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 8:02 — Chicago Bears ball, 4th & 11 at NE 358-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.New England Patriots 13% → 24% (+11 pts) · Drive 16 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Patriots | Points added | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| -3.0 | Passingdropbacks | -6.0 |
| -5.0 | Rushingdesigned runs | -5.9 |
| +20.0 | Explosive plays11 plays · 10 plays | +24.0 |
| -5.3 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +2.1 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +3.9 |
| -2.2 | Penalties10 for 71 yds · 9 for 69 yds | +0.2 |
| +2.4 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 2 · 3 of 4 | +0.6 |
| +8.9 | All plays | +16.8 |
The biggest single gap: turnovers, worth about 5.3 points to Chicago Bears. The final margin was 6.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Chicago Bears closed as the market favourite at 58% and won.
The line moved toward Chicago Bears before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Patriots +3 (-118)
Patriots +3 (-114)
Bears -149 57%
Bears -155 58%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
DeMario Douglas has 233 receiving yards for the Patriots (45th of 79 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 16.8%. Rhamondre Stevenson has 263 rushing yards on 71 carries (24th of 40 qualified running backs). Luther Burden III has 361 receiving yards for the Bears (19th of 79 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 22.2%. D'Andre Swift has 398 rushing yards on 94 carries (11th of 40 qualified running backs).
- Carries71
- Rush yards26324th
- Yards per carry3.725th
- EPA per rush−0.06119th
- Rush success rate38.0%22nd
- Targets / catches30 / 20
- Receiving yards23345th
- Target share16.8%47th
- Yards per target7.845th
- EPA per target+0.42828th
- Targets / catches24 / 19
- Receiving yards22514th
- Target share13.4%25th
- Yards per target9.43rd
- EPA per target+0.5045th
- Carries94
- Rush yards39811th
- Yards per carry4.215th
- EPA per rush−0.06018th
- Rush success rate44.7%11th
- Targets / catches43 / 31
- Receiving yards36119th
- Target share22.2%28th
- Yards per target8.435th
- EPA per target+0.03760th
- Targets / catches30 / 19
- Receiving yards17521st
- Target share15.5%19th
- Yards per target5.828th
- EPA per target−0.15230th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Patriots | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success ratePatriots offense vs Bears defense | 43.5%15th | 43.2%16th |
| Early-down success rateBears offense vs Patriots defense | 44.4%21st | 45.8%11th |
| Early-down EPA per playPatriots offense vs Bears defense | −0.00815th | +0.11130th |
| Early-down EPA per playBears offense vs Patriots defense | +0.01018th | −0.01517th |
| 3rd-down conversion ratePatriots offense vs Bears defense | 41.6%12th | 25.8%2nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBears offense vs Patriots defense | 37.1%11th | 46.0%6th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playPatriots offense vs Bears defense | −0.00211th | −0.4163rd |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBears offense vs Patriots defense | −0.09512th | +0.2056th |
| Red-zone TD ratePatriots offense vs Bears defense | 52.6%23rd | 71.4%24th |
| Red-zone TD rateBears offense vs Patriots defense | 52.9%11th | 50.0%25th |
| Red-zone success ratePatriots offense vs Bears defense | 37.7%24th | 51.2%29th |
| Red-zone success rateBears offense vs Patriots defense | 37.7%8th | 44.6%12th |
On early downs the Patriots succeed on 43.5% of plays (15th) against a Bears defense that allows 43.2% (16th); on 3rd down they convert 41.6% (12th) against a defense allowing 25.8% (2nd). On early downs the Bears succeed on 45.8% of plays (11th) against a Patriots defense that allows 44.4% (21st); on 3rd down they convert 46.0% (6th) against a defense allowing 37.1% (11th). The Patriots score touchdowns on 52.6% of red-zone trips (23rd). The Bears score touchdowns on 50.0% of red-zone trips (25th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Patriots | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Mike Vrabel | Ben Johnson |
| Offensive coordinator | Josh McDaniels | Press Taylor |
| Defensive coordinator | Zak Kuhr | Dennis Allen |
| Offense tendencies | Patriots | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −1.6% | −0.5%11th-highest | −1.2%14th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 61.4% | 58.4%23rd-highest | 55.1%30th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.8% | 52.7%24th-highest | 51.2%29th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 61.5% | 54.9%26th-highest | 53.0%27th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.4% | 0.5%31st-highest | 5.3%18th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.9 | 32.519th-slowest | 33.017th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.2% | 18.1%9th | 13.9%21st |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.5% | 10.0%8th | 9.0%12th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.3% | 8.9%18th | 9.9%14th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.1% | 5.0%9th | 6.3%20th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.92% | 3.42%31st | 2.55%23rd |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.5 | 63.29th-most | 72.01st-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 60.4% | 5 of 7 | 8 of 10 |
| Defense | Patriots | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.1% | 6.6%15th | 8.9%2nd |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.2% | 14.6%14th | 18.6%29th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.5% | 7.6%12th | 12.2%32nd |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.3% | 10.0%21st | 11.0%26th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.92% | 2.04%13th | 1.99%16th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.9% | 17.0%12th | 17.5%10th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.9% | 14.5%11th | 14.3%10th |
The Patriots run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−0.5% pass rate over expected, 11th-highest), while the Bears sit at −1.2% (14th-highest). In neutral situations the Patriots take 32.5 seconds between snaps and the Bears 33.0, so the Patriots play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Patriots have gone for it 5 of 7 times and the Bears 8 of 10.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 3 times since 2015: the Patriots won 2 and the Bears 1. In the most recent meeting (November 10, 2024), the Patriots won 19-3; the Bears averaged −0.402 EPA per play; the Patriots averaged +0.005 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2024 | Patriots 19, Bears 3 Patriots won | Bears -6.5 Patriots covered | 37.5 under | Bears −0.402 · Patriots +0.005 |
| Oct 24, 2022 | Bears 33, Patriots 14 Bears won | Patriots -9.5 Bears covered | 40 over | Bears +0.138 · Patriots −0.248 |
| Oct 21, 2018 | Patriots 38, Bears 31 Patriots won | Patriots -1 Patriots covered | 49 over | Bears −0.002 · Patriots +0.135 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
New England Patriots
- New England Patriots team stats
- New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (Nov 1)
- New York Jets 19, New England Patriots 26 (Oct 18)
- Las Vegas Raiders 17, New England Patriots 45 (Oct 11)
- New England Patriots 29, Buffalo Bills 26 (Oct 4)
Chicago Bears
- Chicago Bears team stats
- Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks (Nov 2)
- Chicago Bears 31, Atlanta Falcons 23 (Oct 18)
- Chicago Bears 7, Green Bay Packers 31 (Oct 11)
- New York Jets 12, Chicago Bears 23 (Oct 4)
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