New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Preview & Odds — November 1, 2026

Matchup preview

Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.

Odds and line movement

Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Best available prices on Oct 28

• Patriots -7-105DraftKings
• Dolphins +7-110BetMGM
• Over 44.5+111ProphetX
• Under 44.5-114FanDuel
• Patriots-300theScore Bet
• Dolphins+300Novig

G&W Line

Players to watch

DeMario Douglas has 256 receiving yards for the Patriots (46th of 75 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 16.3%. Rhamondre Stevenson has 285 rushing yards on 77 carries (27th of 39 qualified running backs). Malik Washington has 289 receiving yards for the Dolphins (36th of 75 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 26.2%. Ollie Gordon II has 339 rushing yards on 72 carries (20th of 39 qualified running backs).

Patriots

RB · Rhamondre Stevenson

• Carries77
• Rush yards28527th
• Yards per carry3.725th
• EPA per rush−0.08521st
• Rush success rate36.4%25th

WR · DeMario Douglas

• Targets / catches34 / 23
• Receiving yards25646th
• Target share16.3%51st
• Yards per target7.547th
• EPA per target+0.38629th

TE · Hunter Henry

• Targets / catches31 / 26
• Receiving yards29611th
• Target share14.8%21st
• Yards per target9.54th
• EPA per target+0.5644th

Dolphins

RB · Ollie Gordon II

• Carries72
• Rush yards33920th
• Yards per carry4.79th
• EPA per rush+0.0598th
• Rush success rate37.5%23rd

WR · Malik Washington

• Targets / catches39 / 26
• Receiving yards28936th
• Target share26.2%12th
• Yards per target7.451st
• EPA per target+0.03759th

TE · Greg Dulcich

• Targets / catches22 / 18
• Receiving yards21319th
• Target share16.7%16th
• Yards per target9.73rd
• EPA per target+0.5326th

Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).

Success by situation

On early downs the Patriots succeed on 44.4% of plays (13th) against a Dolphins defense that allows 47.0% (30th); on 3rd down they convert 40.5% (13th) against a defense allowing 53.6% (31st). On early downs the Dolphins succeed on 36.8% of plays (29th) against a Patriots defense that allows 44.6% (24th); on 3rd down they convert 41.3% (11th) against a defense allowing 36.1% (8th). The Patriots score touchdowns on 52.4% of red-zone trips (25th). The Dolphins score touchdowns on 60.0% of red-zone trips (15th).

Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.

Coaching and tendencies

The Patriots run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−0.0% pass rate over expected, 9th-highest), while the Dolphins sit at −11.1% (32nd-highest). In neutral situations the Patriots take 32.9 seconds between snaps and the Dolphins 34.0, so the Patriots play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Patriots have gone for it 5 of 7 times and the Dolphins 6 of 7.

Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.

EPA rank trend

Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).

Head-to-head

The teams have met 22 times since 2015: the Patriots won 10 and the Dolphins 12. In the most recent meeting (January 4, 2026), the Patriots won 38-10; the Dolphins averaged −0.344 EPA per play; the Patriots averaged +0.360 EPA per play.

The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.