Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots Final — October 11, 2026
LVStarting quarterbacksexpected startersNE
LVOffense2026 regular season to dateNELVDefenseNELVRecent formNELVHome and roadseason to dateNEInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
LVRest & travelNELVKey injuriesNEAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 32 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Raiders (3-1) visited the Patriots (2-2) at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 5.
The Raiders have the 14th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 4th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Patriots have the 23rd-ranked offense and the 13th-ranked defense. When the Raiders have the ball, a 14th-ranked offense (+0.009 EPA per play) meets a 13th-ranked defense (−0.007 allowed); when the Patriots have it, a 23rd-ranked offense (−0.049) meets a 4th-ranked defense (−0.104 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Raiders offense is at 42.7% (20th) and the Patriots offense at 43.2% (18th). Through the air, the Raiders average +0.164 EPA per dropback (11th) against a Patriots pass defense ranked 6th; the Patriots average +0.020 (21st) against a Raiders pass defense ranked 5th. The Raiders score 28.8 points per game (8th) and allow 21.0 (11th); the Patriots score 16.2 (30th) and allow 19.2 (6th).
Kirk Cousins has a 49.3% success rate (8th of 32 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Drake Maye's 48.6% (11th). Per dropback, Cousins is at +0.173 EPA to Maye's +0.015, with 11 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions to Maye's 4 and 7.
The Raiders are 3-1 and 4-0 against the spread; their last game was a 30-27 loss to the Chiefs. The Patriots are 2-2 and 2-1-1 against the spread; their last game was a 29-26 win over the Bills.
The Patriots closed as 3.5-point favorites at home against the Raiders. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed 45.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Raiders +152, Patriots -188) prices the Raiders at 38% and the Patriots at 62%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Las Vegas Raiders 17, New England Patriots 45
New England Patriots won by 28.
- Against the closing spread (New England Patriots -3.5): New England Patriots covered.
- Combined score 62 vs the closing total of 45.5: Over.
- New England Patriots closed at -188 on the moneyline (a 62% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Las Vegas Raiders.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Las Vegas Raiders 38%, New England Patriots 62%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 11:30 — New England Patriots ball, 2nd & 10 at LV 35(Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 3-D.Douglas for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.New England Patriots 71% → 78% (+7 pts) · Drive 2 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 2:34 — New England Patriots ball, 4th & 3 at LV 8(Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 85-H.Henry to LV 1 for 7 yards (31-T.Stukes).New England Patriots 72% → 78% (+6 pts) · Drive 4 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 4:33 — New England Patriots ball, 1st & 10 at NE 35(Shotgun) 9-C.Kiner up the middle to NE 37 for 2 yards (69-A.Butler). FUMBLES (69-A.Butler), touched at NE 39, RECOVERED by LV-26-D.Porter at NE 38. Penalty on NE, Illegal Shift, declined.Las Vegas Raiders 15% → 24% (+10 pts) · Drive 8 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 1:56 — Las Vegas Raiders ball, 4th & 14 at NE 3114-M.Gay 49 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.New England Patriots 80% → 86% (+5 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Raiders | Points added | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| -7.3 | Passingdropbacks | -0.3 |
| -4.9 | Rushingdesigned runs | -3.8 |
| +13.6 | Explosive plays8 plays · 16 plays | +28.1 |
| -1.7 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -4.6 |
| -0.3 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +2.0 |
| -1.0 | Penalties8 for 101 yds · 12 for 116 yds | -1.6 |
| -0.7 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 3 · 4 of 5 | +7.3 |
| -2.4 | All plays | +27.1 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 14.5 points to New England Patriots. The final margin was 28.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
New England Patriots closed as the market favourite at 62% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Raiders +3.5 (-108)
Raiders +3.5 (-115)
Patriots -194 63%
Patriots -188 62%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Tre Tucker has 233 receiving yards for the Raiders (17th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 16.9%. Ashton Jeanty has 264 rushing yards on 78 carries (14th of 46 qualified running backs). Mack Hollins has 209 receiving yards for the Patriots (32nd of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 16.9%. Rhamondre Stevenson has 163 rushing yards on 44 carries (27th of 46 qualified running backs).
- Carries78
- Rush yards26414th
- Yards per carry3.438th
- EPA per rush−0.28742nd
- Rush success rate32.1%39th
- Targets / catches23 / 15
- Receiving yards23317th
- Target share16.9%51st
- Yards per target10.125th
- EPA per target+0.35440th
- Targets / catches24 / 20
- Receiving yards16911th
- Target share17.6%14th
- Yards per target7.017th
- EPA per target+0.26414th
- Carries44
- Rush yards16327th
- Yards per carry3.731st
- EPA per rush−0.06422nd
- Rush success rate40.9%24th
- Targets / catches20 / 15
- Receiving yards20932nd
- Target share16.9%49th
- Yards per target10.419th
- EPA per target+0.64418th
- Targets / catches15 / 12
- Receiving yards13321st
- Target share12.7%26th
- Yards per target8.97th
- EPA per target+0.00527th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Raiders | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateRaiders offense vs Patriots defense | 42.0%20th | 41.2%10th |
| Early-down success ratePatriots offense vs Raiders defense | 43.2%15th | 42.2%19th |
| Early-down EPA per playRaiders offense vs Patriots defense | −0.02721st | −0.0537th |
| Early-down EPA per playPatriots offense vs Raiders defense | −0.00514th | −0.06626th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateRaiders offense vs Patriots defense | 41.2%11th | 38.3%17th |
| 3rd-down conversion ratePatriots offense vs Raiders defense | 40.4%19th | 35.3%22nd |
| 3rd-down EPA per playRaiders offense vs Patriots defense | +0.1967th | −0.04917th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playPatriots offense vs Raiders defense | −0.3216th | −0.22627th |
| Red-zone TD rateRaiders offense vs Patriots defense | 56.2%19th | 63.6%17th |
| Red-zone TD ratePatriots offense vs Raiders defense | 76.9%29th | 40.0%31st |
| Red-zone success rateRaiders offense vs Patriots defense | 25.6%32nd | 35.1%7th |
| Red-zone success ratePatriots offense vs Raiders defense | 56.2%30th | 30.4%31st |
On early downs the Raiders succeed on 42.0% of plays (20th) against a Patriots defense that allows 41.2% (10th); on 3rd down they convert 41.2% (11th) against a defense allowing 38.3% (17th). On early downs the Patriots succeed on 42.2% of plays (19th) against a Raiders defense that allows 43.2% (15th); on 3rd down they convert 35.3% (22nd) against a defense allowing 40.4% (19th). The Raiders score touchdowns on 56.2% of red-zone trips (19th). The Patriots score touchdowns on 40.0% of red-zone trips (31st).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Raiders | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Klint Kubiak | Mike Vrabel |
| Offensive coordinator | Andrew Janocko | Josh McDaniels |
| Defensive coordinator | Rob Leonard | Zak Kuhr |
| Offense tendencies | Raiders | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | −2.9%19th-highest | −0.5%12th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.6% | 58.5%22nd-highest | 59.6%19th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.1% | 52.5%22nd-highest | 54.2%18th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 60.0% | 51.8%26th-highest | 49.4%28th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.2% | 4.3%22nd-highest | 0.8%30th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.8 | 34.53rd-slowest | 32.420th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.4% | 17.4%10th | 15.9%14th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.8% | 9.0%14th | 9.4%13th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 7.4%20th | 6.0%27th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 5.9% | 3.3%3rd | 6.7%20th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.88% | 1.54%13th | 4.00%32nd |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.9 | 64.28th-most | 62.212th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 63.2% | 5 of 9 | 3 of 5 |
| Defense | Raiders | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 5.9% | 8.2%5th | 5.7%19th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.4% | 13.4%12th | 11.5%5th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.8% | 8.2%12th | 7.6%11th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 11.8%29th | 10.3%23rd |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.88% | 3.72%1st | 2.19%12th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 16.1% | 22.6%2nd | 15.8%16th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 16.1% | 18.1%26th | 15.5%12th |
The Raiders run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−2.9% pass rate over expected, 19th-highest), while the Patriots sit at −0.5% (12th-highest). In neutral situations the Raiders take 34.5 seconds between snaps and the Patriots 32.4, so the Patriots play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Raiders have gone for it 5 of 9 times and the Patriots 3 of 5.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 5 times since 2015: the Raiders won 3 and the Patriots 2. In the most recent meeting (September 7, 2025), the Raiders won 20-13; the Raiders averaged +0.115 EPA per play; the Patriots averaged −0.066 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7, 2025 | Raiders 20, Patriots 13 Raiders won | Patriots -2.5 Raiders covered | 44.5 under | Raiders +0.115 · Patriots −0.066 |
| Oct 15, 2023 | Patriots 17, Raiders 21 Raiders won | Raiders -3 Raiders covered | 41.5 under | Raiders +0.012 · Patriots −0.006 |
| Dec 18, 2022 | Patriots 24, Raiders 30 Raiders won | Raiders -1 Raiders covered | 45 over | Raiders −0.065 · Patriots −0.112 |
| Sep 27, 2020 | Raiders 20, Patriots 36 Patriots won | Patriots -7 Patriots covered | 47 over | Raiders −0.075 · Patriots +0.140 |
| Nov 19, 2017 | Patriots 33, Raiders 8 Patriots won | Patriots -7 Patriots covered | 55 under | Raiders −0.009 · Patriots +0.326 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Las Vegas Raiders
- Las Vegas Raiders team stats
- Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets (Nov 1)
- Los Angeles Rams 35, Las Vegas Raiders 21 (Oct 25)
- Buffalo Bills 33, Las Vegas Raiders 30 (Oct 18)
- Kansas City Chiefs 30, Las Vegas Raiders 27 (Oct 4)
New England Patriots
- New England Patriots team stats
- New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (Nov 1)
- New England Patriots 24, Chicago Bears 30 (Oct 22)
- New York Jets 19, New England Patriots 26 (Oct 18)
- New England Patriots 29, Buffalo Bills 26 (Oct 4)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 11, 2026
- Philadelphia Eagles 17, Jacksonville Jaguars 19 (Oct 11)
- Chicago Bears 7, Green Bay Packers 31 (Oct 11)
- Cincinnati Bengals 31, Miami Dolphins 24 (Oct 11)
- Minnesota Vikings 23, New Orleans Saints 13 (Oct 11)
- Cleveland Browns 12, New York Jets 17 (Oct 11)
- Indianapolis Colts 22, Pittsburgh Steelers 34 (Oct 11)
- Houston Texans 26, Tennessee Titans 3 (Oct 11)
- New York Giants 27, Washington Commanders 27 (Oct 11)
- Denver Broncos 23, Los Angeles Chargers 17 (Oct 11)
- Detroit Lions 45, Arizona Cardinals 21 (Oct 11)
- San Francisco 49ers 32, Seattle Seahawks 29 (Oct 11)
- Baltimore Ravens 30, Atlanta Falcons 23 (Oct 11)
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