New York Jets vs Chicago Bears Preview & Odds — October 4, 2026
Matchup preview
The Jets (1-2) visit the Bears (2-1) at Soldier Field on Sunday, October 4 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 4.
The Jets have the 12th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 13th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Bears have the 8th-ranked offense and the 10th-ranked defense. When the Jets have the ball, a 12th-ranked offense (+0.044 EPA per play) meets a 10th-ranked defense (−0.044 allowed); when the Bears have it, a 8th-ranked offense (+0.127) meets a 13th-ranked defense (−0.032 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Jets offense is at 44.3% (14th) and the Bears offense at 45.1% (13th). Through the air, the Jets average +0.200 EPA per dropback (10th) against a Bears pass defense ranked 8th; the Bears average +0.227 (9th) against a Jets pass defense ranked 16th. The Jets score 21.3 points per game (17th) and allow 20.3 (12th); the Bears score 29.7 (5th) and allow 17.7 (7th).
Geno Smith has a 49.2% success rate (12th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Caleb Williams' 48.0% (13th). Per dropback, Smith is at +0.202 EPA to Williams' +0.315, with 4 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions to Williams' 2 and 1.
The Jets are 1-2 and 2-0-1 against the spread; their last game was a 31-24 loss to the Lions. The Bears are 2-1 and 2-1 against the spread; their last game was a 27-7 win over the Eagles.
The Bears are 3.5-point favorites at home against the Jets. The spread has not moved since it opened. The total is 43, up from 42.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Jets +148, Bears -175) prices the Jets at 39% and the Bears at 61%.
Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.
Tale of the tape
Jets2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Quarterback matchup
- Dropbacks118
- Success rate49.2%12th
- EPA per dropback+0.20210th
- Completion %76.2%1st
- CPOE+10.91st
- Yards per attempt7.89th
- TD–INT4–0
- Sack rate7.6%25th
- Dropbacks70
- Success rate48.0%13th
- EPA per dropback+0.3155th
- Completion %65.5%16th
- CPOE+6.28th
- Yards per attempt7.411th
- TD–INT2–1
- Sack rate7.1%22nd
Primary passer = most dropbacks over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game). Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
Players to watch
Garrett Wilson leads the Jets wide receivers with 243 receiving yards (9th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 28.4%. Breece Hall has 163 rushing yards on 51 carries (23rd of 44 qualified running backs). Luther Burden III leads the Bears wide receivers with 156 receiving yards (28th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 25.6%. D'Andre Swift has 253 rushing yards on 54 carries (7th of 44 qualified running backs).
- Carries51
- Rush yards16323rd
- Yards per carry3.237th
- EPA per rush−0.17332nd
- Rush success rate33.3%34th
- Targets / catches27 / 21
- Receiving yards2439th
- Target share28.4%7th
- Yards per target9.036th
- EPA per target+0.57121st
- Targets / catches14 / 12
- Receiving yards1438th
- Target share14.7%18th
- Yards per target10.26th
- EPA per target+0.46310th
- Carries54
- Rush yards2537th
- Yards per carry4.712th
- EPA per rush−0.00914th
- Rush success rate42.6%17th
- Targets / catches23 / 15
- Receiving yards15628th
- Target share25.6%14th
- Yards per target6.858th
- EPA per target−0.13670th
- Targets / catches9 / 5
- Receiving yards3436th
- Target share10.0%31st
- Yards per target3.836th
- EPA per target−0.09030th
Lead back = most carries and lead receivers = most targets over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Jets | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateJets offense vs Bears defense | 43.2%16th | 43.2%15th |
| Early-down success rateBears offense vs Jets defense | 49.6%29th | 43.9%14th |
| Early-down EPA per playJets offense vs Bears defense | −0.01618th | +0.09727th |
| Early-down EPA per playBears offense vs Jets defense | +0.03620th | +0.0998th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateJets offense vs Bears defense | 38.1%19th | 29.0%3rd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBears offense vs Jets defense | 32.3%5th | 47.6%6th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playJets offense vs Bears defense | +0.10811th | −0.4424th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBears offense vs Jets defense | −0.2778th | +0.2457th |
| Red-zone TD rateJets offense vs Bears defense | 66.7%9th | 71.4%22nd |
| Red-zone TD rateBears offense vs Jets defense | 77.8%27th | 54.5%20th |
| Red-zone success rateJets offense vs Bears defense | 40.0%19th | 60.0%31st |
| Red-zone success rateBears offense vs Jets defense | 51.9%29th | 40.8%18th |
On early downs the Jets succeed on 43.2% of plays (16th) against a Bears defense that allows 43.2% (15th); on 3rd down they convert 38.1% (19th) against a defense allowing 29.0% (3rd). On early downs the Bears succeed on 43.9% of plays (14th) against a Jets defense that allows 49.6% (29th); on 3rd down they convert 47.6% (6th) against a defense allowing 32.3% (5th). The Jets score touchdowns on 66.7% of red-zone trips (9th). The Bears score touchdowns on 54.5% of red-zone trips (20th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Jets | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Aaron Glenn | Ben Johnson |
| Offensive coordinator | Frank Reich | Press Taylor |
| Defensive coordinator | Brian Duker | Dennis Allen |
| Offense tendencies | Jets | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | −1.0%14th-highest | −2.0%17th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 61.9%14th-highest | 55.3%27th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 56.2%15th-highest | 49.7%27th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.8% | 60.9%16th-highest | 45.6%30th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.1% | 5.2%14th-highest | 3.9%23rd-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 34.75th-slowest | 32.618th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.3% | 16.5%11th | 15.7%15th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 10.1%9th | 9.3%15th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 8.3%19th | 8.8%17th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 7.5%22nd | 5.3%12th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.90% | 0.52%4th | 1.46%16th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.6 | 64.08th-most | 68.72nd-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.7% | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 |
| Defense | Jets | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 7.5%8th | 7.1%10th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.3% | 8.1%3rd | 20.9%28th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 4.0%3rd | 11.0%25th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 11.1%23rd | 11.5%25th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.90% | 0.62%30th | 3.12%4th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 14.0%20th | 13.3%22nd |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 12.7%4th | 14.0%11th |
The Jets run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−1.0% pass rate over expected, 14th-highest), while the Bears sit at −2.0% (17th-highest). In neutral situations the Jets take 34.7 seconds between snaps and the Bears 32.6, so the Bears play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Jets have gone for it 3 of 4 times and the Bears 4 of 4.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest. Coaching staff: Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Injury report
No starters listed out, doubtful or questionable.
No starters listed out, doubtful or questionable.
Starters (and the primary passer) on the game's official injury report, as of the latest report captured before kickoff.
Travel and schedule
The Jets have 7 days between games and the Bears 6. The Jets travel about 706 miles, moving their body clock 1 hour back. It is their 2nd straight game away from home.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Recent form and rest
JetsBearsLast five results this season, oldest to newest. Against-the-spread and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2015: the Jets won 1 and the Bears 1. In the most recent meeting (November 27, 2022), the Jets won 31-10; the Bears averaged −0.063 EPA per play; the Jets averaged +0.246 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27, 2022 | Bears 10, Jets 31 Jets won | Jets -8.5 Jets covered | 36.5 over | Bears −0.063 · Jets +0.246 |
| Oct 28, 2018 | Jets 10, Bears 24 Bears won | Bears -8.5 Bears covered | 42.5 under | Bears +0.168 · Jets −0.077 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the nflverse closing lines.
Odds and line movement
Jets +3.5 (-107)
Jets +3.5 (-115)
Bears -190 63%
Bears -175 61%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Best available prices on Oct 2
- Jets +4-116ProphetX
- Bears -3-117Bally Bet
- Over 43-107Bally Bet
- Under 43.5-104Polymarket
- Jets+163Novig
- Bears-163Polymarket
Dig deeper
Teams
New York Jets
Chicago Bears
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