New York Jets vs New England Patriots Final — October 18, 2026
NYJStarting quarterbacksexpected startersNE
NYJOffense2026 regular season to dateNENYJDefenseNENYJRecent formNENYJHome and roadseason to dateNEInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
NYJRest & travelNENYJKey injuriesNEAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Jets (2-3) visited the Patriots (3-2) at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, October 18 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 6.
The Jets have the 20th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 5th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Patriots have the 11th-ranked offense and the 17th-ranked defense. When the Jets have the ball, a 20th-ranked offense (−0.025 EPA per play) meets a 17th-ranked defense (−0.009 allowed); when the Patriots have it, a 11th-ranked offense (+0.046) meets a 5th-ranked defense (−0.062 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Jets offense is at 42.8% (16th) and the Patriots offense at 45.4% (13th). Through the air, the Jets average +0.037 EPA per dropback (20th) against a Patriots pass defense ranked 7th; the Patriots average +0.174 (9th) against a Jets pass defense ranked 13th. The Jets score 18.6 points per game (27th) and allow 19.2 (5th); the Patriots score 22.0 (19th) and allow 18.8 (4th).
Drake Maye has a 51.9% success rate (3rd of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Geno Smith's 45.7% (20th). Per dropback, Maye is at +0.177 EPA to Smith's +0.037, with 8 touchdown passes and 7 interceptions to Smith's 6 and 0.
The Jets are 2-3 and 3-1-1 against the spread; their last game was a 17-12 win over the Browns. The Patriots are 3-2 and 3-1-1 against the spread; their last game was a 45-17 win over the Raiders.
The Patriots closed as 7-point favorites at home against the Jets. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 42.5, down from 43.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Jets +275, Patriots -347) prices the Jets at 26% and the Patriots at 74%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
New York Jets 19, New England Patriots 26
New England Patriots won by 7.
- Against the closing spread (New England Patriots -7): push.
- Combined score 45 vs the closing total of 42.5: Over.
- New England Patriots closed at -347 on the moneyline (a 74% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward New York Jets.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (New York Jets 26%, New England Patriots 74%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 4:18 — New England Patriots ball, 2nd & 10 at NYJ 42(Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 87-R.Doubs for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-87-R.Doubs was injured during the play.New England Patriots 74% → 81% (+8 pts) · Drive 4 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 14:22 — New York Jets ball, 4th & 2 at NE 30(Shotgun) 0-B.Allen right guard to NE 29 for 1 yard (14-R.Spillane; 53-C.Elliss).New England Patriots 80% → 85% (+5 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 7:00 — New York Jets ball, 4th & 1 at NE 397-G.Smith up the middle to NE 39 for no gain (50-G.Jacas). (Virtual Measurement).New England Patriots 81% → 86% (+6 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 10:32 — New York Jets ball, 1st & 10 at NE 487-G.Smith pass deep left to 11-O.Cooper for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.New York Jets 6% → 11% (+5 pts) · Drive 13 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 8:17 — New England Patriots ball, 1st & 10 at NE 29(Shotgun) 32-T.Henderson right guard to NE 35 for 6 yards (31-D.Bailey; 91-J.Briggs). FUMBLES (31-D.Bailey), RECOVERED by NYJ-44-J.Sherwood at NE 36. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contactNew York Jets 11% → 19% (+8 pts) · Drive 14 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Jets | Points added | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| +3.8 | Passingdropbacks | -3.9 |
| -11.9 | Rushingdesigned runs | -0.9 |
| +13.9 | Explosive plays10 plays · 8 plays | +12.2 |
| -3.6 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -7.7 |
| +1.0 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +2.9 |
| +0.1 | Penalties5 for 35 yds · 5 for 57 yds | +0.3 |
| -4.5 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 3 · 2 of 4 | +1.1 |
| -1.1 | All plays | +4.0 |
The biggest single gap: rushing, worth about 10.9 points to New England Patriots. The final margin was 7.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
New England Patriots closed as the market favourite at 74% and won.
The line moved toward New York Jets before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Jets +7 (-106)
Jets +7 (-106)
Patriots -367 75%
Patriots -347 74%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Garrett Wilson has 374 receiving yards for the Jets (11th of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 30.2%. Braelon Allen has 236 rushing yards on 57 carries (25th of 41 qualified running backs). Romeo Doubs has 219 receiving yards for the Patriots (42nd of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 15.4%. TreVeyon Henderson has 163 rushing yards on 42 carries (33rd of 41 qualified running backs).
- Carries57
- Rush yards23625th
- Yards per carry4.118th
- EPA per rush−0.04519th
- Rush success rate40.4%20th
- Targets / catches42 / 31
- Receiving yards37411th
- Target share30.2%5th
- Yards per target8.933rd
- EPA per target+0.48925th
- Targets / catches21 / 14
- Receiving yards14623rd
- Target share15.1%19th
- Yards per target7.020th
- EPA per target−0.12730th
- Carries42
- Rush yards16333rd
- Yards per carry3.924th
- EPA per rush−0.13026th
- Rush success rate33.3%34th
- Targets / catches23 / 13
- Receiving yards21942nd
- Target share15.4%55th
- Yards per target9.526th
- EPA per target+0.36537th
- Targets / catches19 / 15
- Receiving yards17716th
- Target share12.8%27th
- Yards per target9.35th
- EPA per target+0.34912th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Jets | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateJets offense vs Patriots defense | 42.7%19th | 42.0%10th |
| Early-down success ratePatriots offense vs Jets defense | 46.1%25th | 44.2%14th |
| Early-down EPA per playJets offense vs Patriots defense | −0.03021st | −0.02411th |
| Early-down EPA per playPatriots offense vs Jets defense | −0.01513th | +0.00217th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateJets offense vs Patriots defense | 36.4%23rd | 38.3%13th |
| 3rd-down conversion ratePatriots offense vs Jets defense | 34.4%9th | 38.7%17th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playJets offense vs Patriots defense | −0.10421st | −0.04718th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playPatriots offense vs Jets defense | −0.13113th | −0.06914th |
| Red-zone TD rateJets offense vs Patriots defense | 54.5%20th | 64.3%21st |
| Red-zone TD ratePatriots offense vs Jets defense | 52.9%9th | 53.3%23rd |
| Red-zone success rateJets offense vs Patriots defense | 32.3%31st | 37.8%10th |
| Red-zone success ratePatriots offense vs Jets defense | 46.3%23rd | 38.5%22nd |
On early downs the Jets succeed on 42.7% of plays (19th) against a Patriots defense that allows 42.0% (10th); on 3rd down they convert 36.4% (23rd) against a defense allowing 38.3% (13th). On early downs the Patriots succeed on 44.2% of plays (14th) against a Jets defense that allows 46.1% (25th); on 3rd down they convert 38.7% (17th) against a defense allowing 34.4% (9th). The Jets score touchdowns on 54.5% of red-zone trips (20th). The Patriots score touchdowns on 53.3% of red-zone trips (23rd).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Jets | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Aaron Glenn | Mike Vrabel |
| Offensive coordinator | Frank Reich | Josh McDaniels |
| Defensive coordinator | Brian Duker | Zak Kuhr |
| Offense tendencies | Jets | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.0% | −3.0%19th-highest | 0.3%11th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.9% | 59.7%19th-highest | 59.7%18th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.3% | 53.2%21st-highest | 53.7%19th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 60.8% | 59.0%19th-highest | 53.8%27th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.4% | 3.8%24th-highest | 0.6%30th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.9 | 33.214th-slowest | 32.818th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.2% | 15.5%15th | 18.3%7th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.8% | 9.0%16th | 10.3%7th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.5% | 10.4%11th | 9.6%17th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 9.2%30th | 5.9%17th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.94% | 1.03%6th | 3.51%31st |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.2 | 57.625th-most | 62.411th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.4% | 3 of 5 | 4 of 6 |
| Defense | Jets | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 9.1%2nd | 6.1%16th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.2% | 11.2%3rd | 13.7%11th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.8% | 8.2%13th | 8.3%14th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.5% | 10.6%23rd | 8.7%13th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.94% | 1.60%22nd | 2.10%15th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 16.0%17th | 16.8%12th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 18.1%26th | 15.1%16th |
The Jets run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−3.0% pass rate over expected, 19th-highest), while the Patriots sit at 0.3% (11th-highest). In neutral situations the Jets take 33.2 seconds between snaps and the Patriots 32.8, so the Patriots play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Jets have gone for it 3 of 5 times and the Patriots 4 of 6.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 22 times since 2015: the Jets won 3 and the Patriots 19. In the most recent meeting (December 28, 2025), the Patriots won 42-10; the Patriots averaged +0.488 EPA per play; the Jets averaged −0.198 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2025 | Patriots 42, Jets 10 Patriots won | Patriots -12.5 Patriots covered | 42.5 over | Patriots +0.488 · Jets −0.198 |
| Nov 13, 2025 | Jets 14, Patriots 27 Patriots won | Patriots -12.5 Patriots covered | 43.5 under | Patriots +0.167 · Jets −0.085 |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Jets 22, Patriots 25 Patriots won | Jets -7 Patriots covered | 41 over | Patriots +0.037 · Jets +0.100 |
| Sep 19, 2024 | Patriots 3, Jets 24 Jets won | Jets -6.5 Jets covered | 39 under | Patriots −0.400 · Jets +0.256 |
| Jan 7, 2024 | Jets 17, Patriots 3 Jets won | Patriots -2.5 Jets covered | 28.5 under | Patriots −0.559 · Jets −0.231 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
New York Jets
- New York Jets team stats
- Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets (Nov 1)
- Miami Dolphins 28, New York Jets 25 (Oct 25)
- Cleveland Browns 12, New York Jets 17 (Oct 11)
- New York Jets 12, Chicago Bears 23 (Oct 4)
New England Patriots
- New England Patriots team stats
- New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (Nov 1)
- New England Patriots 24, Chicago Bears 30 (Oct 22)
- Las Vegas Raiders 17, New England Patriots 45 (Oct 11)
- New England Patriots 29, Buffalo Bills 26 (Oct 4)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 18, 2026
- Houston Texans 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 31 (Oct 18)
- Chicago Bears 31, Atlanta Falcons 23 (Oct 18)
- Baltimore Ravens 10, Cleveland Browns 13 (Oct 18)
- Tennessee Titans 26, Indianapolis Colts 20 (Oct 18)
- New Orleans Saints 34, New York Giants 27 (Oct 18)
- Carolina Panthers 25, Philadelphia Eagles 14 (Oct 18)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 26, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 (Oct 18)
- Arizona Cardinals 18, Los Angeles Rams 16 (Oct 18)
- Los Angeles Chargers 6, Kansas City Chiefs 22 (Oct 18)
- Buffalo Bills 33, Las Vegas Raiders 30 (Oct 18)
- Dallas Cowboys 13, Green Bay Packers 23 (Oct 18)
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