Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers Final — October 11, 2026
CHIStarting quarterbacksexpected startersGB
CHIOffense2026 regular season to dateGBCHIDefenseGBCHIRecent formGBCHIHome and roadseason to dateGBInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
CHIRest & travelGBCHIKey injuriesGBAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 32 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Bears (3-1) visited the Packers (2-2) at Lambeau Field on Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 5.
The Bears have the 9th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 5th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Packers have the 26th-ranked offense and the 22nd-ranked defense. When the Bears have the ball, a 9th-ranked offense (+0.107 EPA per play) meets a 22nd-ranked defense (+0.041 allowed); when the Packers have it, a 26th-ranked offense (−0.091) meets a 5th-ranked defense (−0.059 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Bears offense is at 47.9% (7th) and the Packers offense at 39.2% (27th). Through the air, the Bears average +0.224 EPA per dropback (8th) against a Packers pass defense ranked 21st; the Packers average +0.028 (18th) against a Bears pass defense ranked 3rd. The Bears score 28.0 points per game (9th) and allow 16.2 (4th); the Packers score 18.2 (28th) and allow 26.2 (23rd).
Tyson Bagent has a 55.6% success rate (3rd of 32 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Jordan Love's 40.0% (26th). Per dropback, Bagent is at +0.114 EPA to Love's +0.028, with 0 touchdown passes and 1 interception to Love's 8 and 3.
The Bears are 3-1 and 3-1 against the spread; their last game was a 23-12 win over the Jets. The Packers are 2-2 and 1-3 against the spread; their last game was a 17-14 win over the Buccaneers.
The Bears closed as 1-point road favorites, with the Packers getting the points at home. The spread opened with Packers favored by 1. The total closed at 46.5, up from 43.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Bears -120, Packers +101) prices the Bears at 52% and the Packers at 48%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Chicago Bears 7, Green Bay Packers 31
Green Bay Packers won by 24.
- Against the closing spread (Green Bay Packers +1): Green Bay Packers covered.
- Combined score 38 vs the closing total of 46.5: Under.
- Green Bay Packers closed at +101 on the moneyline (a 48% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Chicago Bears.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Chicago Bears 52%, Green Bay Packers 48%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 13:28 — Chicago Bears ball, 2nd & 9 at CHI 44(Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent sacked at CHI 33 for -11 yards (95-D.Wyatt).Green Bay Packers 47% → 52% (+5 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 5:57 — Green Bay Packers ball, 1st & 10 at CHI 4210-J.Love pass deep left to 9-C.Watson for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Green Bay Packers 59% → 67% (+8 pts) · Drive 2 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 5:39 — Chicago Bears ball, 2nd & 10 at CHI 26(Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass deep right intended for 10-L.Burden INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney (7-J.Bullard) at CHI 45. 29-X.McKinney to CHI 45 for no gain (10-L.Burden).Green Bay Packers 69% → 76% (+7 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 1:56 — Chicago Bears ball, 4th & 1 at GB 1(Shotgun) 4-D.Swift left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.Chicago Bears 16% → 23% (+7 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 13:19 — Green Bay Packers ball, 3rd & 22 at GB 47(Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Green Bay Packers 72% → 86% (+14 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Bears | Points added | Packers |
|---|---|---|
| -5.6 | Passingdropbacks | -3.0 |
| -4.0 | Rushingdesigned runs | -7.8 |
| +7.6 | Explosive plays6 plays · 9 plays | +22.5 |
| -19.3 | Turnovers5 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +0.3 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -6.5 |
| +0.1 | Penalties3 for 20 yds · 4 for 25 yds | -1.1 |
| -1.8 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 2 · 2 of 3 | +3.4 |
| -22.7 | All plays | +7.4 |
The biggest single gap: turnovers, worth about 19.3 points to Green Bay Packers. The final margin was 24.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Chicago Bears closed as the market favourite at 52% and lost.
The line moved toward Chicago Bears before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Bears +1 (-117)
Bears -1 (-110)
Packers -112 50%
Packers +101 48%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Luther Burden III has 219 receiving yards for the Bears (25th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 24.0%. D'Andre Swift has 311 rushing yards on 69 carries (8th of 46 qualified running backs). Matthew Golden has 274 receiving yards for the Packers (12th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 24.7%. MarShawn Lloyd has 81 rushing yards on 30 carries (45th of 46 qualified running backs).
- Carries69
- Rush yards3118th
- Yards per carry4.513th
- EPA per rush−0.11429th
- Rush success rate44.9%15th
- Targets / catches29 / 19
- Receiving yards21925th
- Target share24.0%23rd
- Yards per target7.653rd
- EPA per target+0.00568th
- Targets / catches18 / 11
- Receiving yards9126th
- Target share14.9%20th
- Yards per target5.132nd
- EPA per target−0.27231st
- Carries30
- Rush yards8145th
- Yards per carry2.746th
- EPA per rush−0.42445th
- Rush success rate36.7%30th
- Targets / catches37 / 18
- Receiving yards27412th
- Target share24.7%19th
- Yards per target7.457th
- EPA per target+0.13656th
- Targets / catches24 / 15
- Receiving yards14817th
- Target share16.0%17th
- Yards per target6.223rd
- EPA per target+0.15021st
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Bears | Packers |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateBears offense vs Packers defense | 46.9%7th | 41.5%11th |
| Early-down success ratePackers offense vs Bears defense | 44.7%19th | 41.6%21st |
| Early-down EPA per playBears offense vs Packers defense | +0.07010th | −0.1092nd |
| Early-down EPA per playPackers offense vs Bears defense | +0.11326th | −0.04523rd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBears offense vs Packers defense | 48.2%6th | 49.1%29th |
| 3rd-down conversion ratePackers offense vs Bears defense | 23.7%2nd | 26.7%32nd |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBears offense vs Packers defense | +0.2555th | +0.54231st |
| 3rd-down EPA per playPackers offense vs Bears defense | −0.6011st | −0.34931st |
| Red-zone TD rateBears offense vs Packers defense | 44.4%27th | 80.0%30th |
| Red-zone TD ratePackers offense vs Bears defense | 62.5%16th | 50.0%23rd |
| Red-zone success rateBears offense vs Packers defense | 42.5%15th | 61.9%32nd |
| Red-zone success ratePackers offense vs Bears defense | 52.2%28th | 40.9%18th |
On early downs the Bears succeed on 46.9% of plays (7th) against a Packers defense that allows 41.5% (11th); on 3rd down they convert 48.2% (6th) against a defense allowing 49.1% (29th). On early downs the Packers succeed on 41.6% of plays (21st) against a Bears defense that allows 44.7% (19th); on 3rd down they convert 26.7% (32nd) against a defense allowing 23.7% (2nd). The Bears score touchdowns on 44.4% of red-zone trips (27th). The Packers score touchdowns on 50.0% of red-zone trips (23rd).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Bears | Packers |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Ben Johnson | Matt LaFleur |
| Offensive coordinator | Press Taylor | Adam Stenavich |
| Defensive coordinator | Dennis Allen | Jonathan Gannon |
| Offense tendencies | Bears | Packers |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | −3.8%21st-highest | 2.2%7th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.6% | 51.4%31st-highest | 69.8%1st-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.1% | 46.5%29th-highest | 63.5%4th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 60.0% | 50.3%27th-highest | 68.5%7th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.2% | 5.8%16th-highest | 9.9%6th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.8 | 32.421st-slowest | 33.711th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.4% | 16.1%13th | 15.6%17th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.8% | 10.5%8th | 8.4%21st |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 9.9%14th | 8.7%17th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 5.9% | 4.7%11th | 4.9%13th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.88% | 1.71%16th | 2.59%24th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.9 | 73.01st-most | 58.023rd-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 63.2% | 7 of 8 | 6 of 8 |
| Defense | Bears | Packers |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 5.9% | 8.6%4th | 7.1%11th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.4% | 19.8%27th | 13.2%10th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.8% | 10.4%23rd | 5.4%4th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 10.7%24th | 8.0%10th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.88% | 2.60%9th | 1.56%19th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 16.1% | 18.1%10th | 15.1%18th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 16.1% | 12.0%5th | 20.4%31st |
The Bears run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−3.8% pass rate over expected, 21st-highest), while the Packers sit at 2.2% (7th-highest). In neutral situations the Bears take 32.4 seconds between snaps and the Packers 33.7, so the Bears play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Bears have gone for it 7 of 8 times and the Packers 6 of 8.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 23 times since 2015: the Bears won 5 and the Packers 18. In the most recent meeting (January 10, 2026), the Bears won 31-27; the Bears averaged +0.105 EPA per play; the Packers averaged +0.218 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 playoffs | Packers 27, Bears 31 Bears won | Packers -2.5 Bears covered | 45.5 over | Bears +0.105 · Packers +0.218 |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Packers 16, Bears 22 Bears won | Bears -1.5 Bears covered | 45.5 under | Bears +0.101 · Packers +0.061 |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Bears 21, Packers 28 Packers won | Packers -6.5 Packers covered | 44.5 over | Bears +0.108 · Packers +0.240 |
| Jan 5, 2025 | Bears 24, Packers 22 Bears won | Packers -10 Bears covered | 41.5 over | Bears −0.170 · Packers −0.106 |
| Nov 17, 2024 | Packers 20, Bears 19 Packers won | Packers -6 Bears covered | 41 under | Bears +0.200 · Packers +0.266 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Chicago Bears
- Chicago Bears team stats
- Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks (Nov 2)
- New England Patriots 24, Chicago Bears 30 (Oct 22)
- Chicago Bears 31, Atlanta Falcons 23 (Oct 18)
- New York Jets 12, Chicago Bears 23 (Oct 4)
Green Bay Packers
More NFL games on October 11, 2026
- Philadelphia Eagles 17, Jacksonville Jaguars 19 (Oct 11)
- Cincinnati Bengals 31, Miami Dolphins 24 (Oct 11)
- Las Vegas Raiders 17, New England Patriots 45 (Oct 11)
- Minnesota Vikings 23, New Orleans Saints 13 (Oct 11)
- Cleveland Browns 12, New York Jets 17 (Oct 11)
- Indianapolis Colts 22, Pittsburgh Steelers 34 (Oct 11)
- Houston Texans 26, Tennessee Titans 3 (Oct 11)
- New York Giants 27, Washington Commanders 27 (Oct 11)
- Denver Broncos 23, Los Angeles Chargers 17 (Oct 11)
- Detroit Lions 45, Arizona Cardinals 21 (Oct 11)
- San Francisco 49ers 32, Seattle Seahawks 29 (Oct 11)
- Baltimore Ravens 30, Atlanta Falcons 23 (Oct 11)
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