Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars Final — October 11, 2026
PHIStarting quarterbacksexpected startersJAX
PHIOffense2026 regular season to dateJAXPHIDefenseJAXPHIRecent formJAXPHIHome and roadseason to dateJAXInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
PHIRest & travelJAXPHIKey injuriesJAXAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 32 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Eagles (2-2) visited the Jaguars (3-1) at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday, October 11 at 9:30 AM ET in Week 5.
The Eagles have the 29th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 27th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have the 4th-ranked offense and the 7th-ranked defense. When the Eagles have the ball, a 29th-ranked offense (−0.107 EPA per play) meets a 7th-ranked defense (−0.059 allowed); when the Jaguars have it, a 4th-ranked offense (+0.178) meets a 27th-ranked defense (+0.071 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Eagles offense is at 37.3% (30th) and the Jaguars offense at 49.5% (3rd). Through the air, the Eagles average −0.096 EPA per dropback (25th) against a Jaguars pass defense ranked 7th; the Jaguars average +0.274 (3rd) against a Eagles pass defense ranked 22nd. The Eagles score 18.8 points per game (26th) and allow 23.2 (16th); the Jaguars score 26.0 (12th) and allow 13.2 (2nd).
Trevor Lawrence has a 53.8% success rate (3rd of 32 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Jalen Hurts' 38.6% (28th). Per dropback, Lawrence is at +0.285 EPA to Hurts' −0.056, with 8 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions to Hurts' 7 and 3.
The Eagles are 2-2 and 0-4 against the spread; their last game was a 24-20 loss to the Rams. The Jaguars are 3-1 and 3-1 against the spread; their last game was a 22-17 win over the Bengals.
The Jaguars closed as 7.5-point favorites at home against the Eagles. The spread opened at Jaguars -3.5. The total closed at 41.5, down from 43.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Eagles +310, Jaguars -400) prices the Eagles at 23% and the Jaguars at 77%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Philadelphia Eagles 17, Jacksonville Jaguars 19
Jacksonville Jaguars won by 2.
- Against the closing spread (Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5): Philadelphia Eagles covered.
- Combined score 36 vs the closing total of 41.5: Under.
- Jacksonville Jaguars closed at -400 on the moneyline (a 77% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 15 points toward Jacksonville Jaguars.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Philadelphia Eagles 23%, Jacksonville Jaguars 77%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 5:41 — Philadelphia Eagles ball, 3rd & 10 at PHI 38(Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 80-D.Cooper for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Philadelphia Eagles 30% → 48% (+19 pts) · Drive 8 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 6:40 — Jacksonville Jaguars ball, 4th & 5 at PHI 5(Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 3-J.Meyers [17-A.Ebiketie].Philadelphia Eagles 44% → 64% (+21 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 3:26 — Jacksonville Jaguars ball, 4th & 5 at PHI 27(Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 11-P.Washington for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Jacksonville Jaguars 45% → 68% (+23 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:12 — Philadelphia Eagles ball, 4th & 6 at JAX 304-J.Elliott 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.Philadelphia Eagles 38% → 60% (+22 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:01 — Jacksonville Jaguars ball, 1st & 10 at PHI 3939-C.Little 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-52-D.Hamilton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.Jacksonville Jaguars 61% → 100% (+39 pts) · Drive 23 in Drive X-Ray
Jacksonville Jaguars won after falling as low as 36% (Q4 6:35).
Game DNA
| Eagles | Points added | Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| -13.8 | Passingdropbacks | -5.8 |
| -10.3 | Rushingdesigned runs | -6.3 |
| +13.2 | Explosive plays5 plays · 12 plays | +25.6 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -1.9 |
| +5.7 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +2.4 |
| +3.4 | Penalties7 for 43 yds · 13 for 100 yds | -7.1 |
| -1.0 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 1 · 0 of 3 | -7.3 |
| -2.8 | All plays | -0.4 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 12.4 points to Jacksonville Jaguars. The final margin was 2.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Jacksonville Jaguars closed as the market favourite at 77% and won.
The line moved toward Jacksonville Jaguars before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Eagles +3.5 (-118)
Eagles +7.5 (-104)
Jaguars -180 61%
Jaguars -400 77%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
DeVonta Smith has 235 receiving yards for the Eagles (16th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 33.3%. Saquon Barkley has 182 rushing yards on 36 carries (25th of 46 qualified running backs). Parker Washington has 228 receiving yards for the Jaguars (20th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 26.3%. Bhayshul Tuten has 277 rushing yards on 60 carries (13th of 46 qualified running backs).
- Carries36
- Rush yards18225th
- Yards per carry5.18th
- EPA per rush0.00013th
- Rush success rate38.9%25th
- Targets / catches27 / 19
- Receiving yards23516th
- Target share33.3%2nd
- Yards per target8.739th
- EPA per target+0.04863rd
- Targets / catches7 / 5
- Receiving yards81
- Target share12.5%
- Yards per target11.6
- EPA per target+1.097
- Carries60
- Rush yards27713th
- Yards per carry4.611th
- EPA per rush+0.03711th
- Rush success rate46.7%8th
- Targets / catches26 / 16
- Receiving yards22820th
- Target share26.3%15th
- Yards per target8.837th
- EPA per target+0.42234th
- Targets / catches18 / 14
- Receiving yards16712th
- Target share18.2%13th
- Yards per target9.35th
- EPA per target+0.30412th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Eagles | Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateEagles offense vs Jaguars defense | 37.5%30th | 46.3%25th |
| Early-down success rateJaguars offense vs Eagles defense | 44.9%20th | 48.0%6th |
| Early-down EPA per playEagles offense vs Jaguars defense | −0.02720th | +0.02118th |
| Early-down EPA per playJaguars offense vs Eagles defense | −0.00513th | +0.1505th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateEagles offense vs Jaguars defense | 35.8%19th | 33.3%6th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateJaguars offense vs Eagles defense | 40.4%18th | 52.3%3rd |
| 3rd-down EPA per playEagles offense vs Jaguars defense | −0.23629th | −0.3604th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playJaguars offense vs Eagles defense | +0.20125th | +0.3144th |
| Red-zone TD rateEagles offense vs Jaguars defense | 61.5%14th | 28.6%2nd |
| Red-zone TD rateJaguars offense vs Eagles defense | 66.7%20th | 81.8%2nd |
| Red-zone success rateEagles offense vs Jaguars defense | 40.5%20th | 23.7%2nd |
| Red-zone success rateJaguars offense vs Eagles defense | 53.4%29th | 51.5%5th |
On early downs the Eagles succeed on 37.5% of plays (30th) against a Jaguars defense that allows 46.3% (25th); on 3rd down they convert 35.8% (19th) against a defense allowing 33.3% (6th). On early downs the Jaguars succeed on 48.0% of plays (6th) against a Eagles defense that allows 44.9% (20th); on 3rd down they convert 52.3% (3rd) against a defense allowing 40.4% (18th). The Eagles score touchdowns on 61.5% of red-zone trips (14th). The Jaguars score touchdowns on 81.8% of red-zone trips (2nd).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Eagles | Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Nick Sirianni | Liam Coen |
| Offensive coordinator | Sean Mannion | Grant Udinski |
| Defensive coordinator | Vic Fangio | Anthony Campanile |
| Offense tendencies | Eagles | Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | −6.5%27th-highest | −4.4%24th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.6% | 60.5%17th-highest | 51.8%30th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.1% | 51.2%25th-highest | 49.7%26th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 60.0% | 69.3%5th-highest | 52.5%25th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.2% | 13.6%2nd-highest | 5.5%19th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.8 | 33.612th-slowest | 33.99th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.4% | 13.5%23rd | 19.8%5th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.8% | 7.9%22nd | 10.4%9th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 5.6%29th | 11.4%8th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 5.9% | 8.7%29th | 7.0%21st |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.88% | 2.19%21st | 0.91%10th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.9 | 57.025th-most | 54.830th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 63.2% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 2 |
| Defense | Eagles | Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 5.9% | 2.6%30th | 6.4%13th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.4% | 14.3%13th | 21.2%31st |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.8% | 7.5%10th | 11.0%25th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 6.4%6th | 6.2%4th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.88% | 0.76%32nd | 3.39%2nd |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 16.1% | 8.6%32nd | 17.9%11th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 16.1% | 16.7%17th | 19.5%29th |
The Eagles run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−6.5% pass rate over expected, 27th-highest), while the Jaguars sit at −4.4% (24th-highest). In neutral situations the Eagles take 33.6 seconds between snaps and the Jaguars 33.9, so the Eagles play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Eagles have gone for it 4 of 6 times and the Jaguars 0 of 2.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 3 times since 2015: the Eagles won 3 and the Jaguars 0. In the most recent meeting (November 3, 2024), the Eagles won 28-23; the Jaguars averaged −0.179 EPA per play; the Eagles averaged +0.019 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2024 | Jaguars 23, Eagles 28 Eagles won | Eagles -7.5 Jaguars covered | 46 over | Jaguars −0.179 · Eagles +0.019 |
| Oct 2, 2022 | Jaguars 21, Eagles 29 Eagles won | Eagles -6.5 Eagles covered | 44 over | Jaguars −0.331 · Eagles −0.035 |
| Oct 28, 2018 | Eagles 24, Jaguars 18 Eagles won | Eagles -4 Eagles covered | 44.5 under | Jaguars −0.069 · Eagles +0.189 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Philadelphia Eagles
- Philadelphia Eagles team stats
- Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders (Nov 1)
- Dallas Cowboys 38, Philadelphia Eagles 21 (Oct 26)
- Carolina Panthers 25, Philadelphia Eagles 14 (Oct 18)
- Los Angeles Rams 24, Philadelphia Eagles 20 (Oct 4)
Jacksonville Jaguars
More NFL games on October 11, 2026
- Chicago Bears 7, Green Bay Packers 31 (Oct 11)
- Cincinnati Bengals 31, Miami Dolphins 24 (Oct 11)
- Las Vegas Raiders 17, New England Patriots 45 (Oct 11)
- Minnesota Vikings 23, New Orleans Saints 13 (Oct 11)
- Cleveland Browns 12, New York Jets 17 (Oct 11)
- Indianapolis Colts 22, Pittsburgh Steelers 34 (Oct 11)
- Houston Texans 26, Tennessee Titans 3 (Oct 11)
- New York Giants 27, Washington Commanders 27 (Oct 11)
- Denver Broncos 23, Los Angeles Chargers 17 (Oct 11)
- Detroit Lions 45, Arizona Cardinals 21 (Oct 11)
- San Francisco 49ers 32, Seattle Seahawks 29 (Oct 11)
- Baltimore Ravens 30, Atlanta Falcons 23 (Oct 11)
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