Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars Final — October 18, 2026
HOUStarting quarterbacksexpected startersJAX
HOUOffense2026 regular season to dateJAXHOUDefenseJAXHOURecent formJAXHOUHome and roadseason to dateJAXInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
HOURest & travelJAXHOUKey injuriesJAXAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Texans (1-4) visited the Jaguars (4-1) at Wembley Stadium, a neutral site, on Sunday, October 18 at 9:30 AM ET in Week 6.
The Texans have the 13th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 9th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have the 6th-ranked offense and the 3rd-ranked defense. When the Texans have the ball, a 13th-ranked offense (+0.005 EPA per play) meets a 3rd-ranked defense (−0.088 allowed); when the Jaguars have it, a 6th-ranked offense (+0.151) meets a 9th-ranked defense (−0.043 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Texans offense is at 42.4% (18th) and the Jaguars offense at 46.9% (9th). Through the air, the Texans average +0.110 EPA per dropback (14th) against a Jaguars pass defense ranked 6th; the Jaguars average +0.269 (4th) against a Texans pass defense ranked 14th. The Texans score 22.0 points per game (19th) and allow 22.4 (14th); the Jaguars score 24.6 (12th) and allow 14.0 (2nd).
Trevor Lawrence has a 50.9% success rate (6th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to C.J. Stroud's 49.0% (12th). Per dropback, Lawrence is at +0.276 EPA to Stroud's +0.127, with 10 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions to Stroud's 6 and 0.
The Texans are 1-4 and 1-4 against the spread; their last game was a 26-3 win over the Titans. The Jaguars are 4-1 and 3-2 against the spread; their last game was a 19-17 win over the Eagles.
The Jaguars closed as 2.5-point favorites over the Texans at the neutral site. The spread opened at Jaguars -3. The total closed 42.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Texans +118, Jaguars -140) prices the Texans at 44% and the Jaguars at 56%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Houston Texans 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 31
Houston Texans won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5): Houston Texans covered.
- Combined score 65 vs the closing total of 42.5: Over.
- Houston Texans closed at +118 on the moneyline (a 44% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Houston Texans.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Houston Texans 44%, Jacksonville Jaguars 56%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q4 7:46 — Houston Texans ball, 3rd & 11 at HOU 46(Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 12-N.Collins to JAX 33 for 21 yards (12-T.Hunter; 26-K.Merriweather).Houston Texans 70% → 83% (+14 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 3:59 — Houston Texans ball, 2nd & 4 at JAX 4(Shotgun) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud pass short right intended for 19-X.Hutchinson INTERCEPTED by 12-T.Hunter at JAX -5. Touchback. Penalty on HOU-79-A.Ersery, Ineligible Downfield Pass, decliJacksonville Jaguars 7% → 36% (+29 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 2:00 — Jacksonville Jaguars ball, 4th & 4 at HOU 4239-C.Little 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-55-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-9-L.Cooke.Jacksonville Jaguars 29% → 42% (+13 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:04 — Houston Texans ball, 3rd & 2 at HOU 40(Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 4-W.Marks pushed ob at JAX 41 for 19 yards (50-B.Combs).Houston Texans 61% → 76% (+14 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:03 — Houston Texans ball, 4th & 1 at JAX 3215-K.Fairbairn 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.Houston Texans 72% → 100% (+28 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
Houston Texans won after falling as low as 39% (Q2 0:48).
Game DNA
| Texans | Points added | Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | Passingdropbacks | -8.1 |
| -3.2 | Rushingdesigned runs | -1.5 |
| +17.8 | Explosive plays8 plays · 10 plays | +18.8 |
| -6.0 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -4.8 |
| +5.0 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +9.5 |
| +4.9 | Penalties6 for 40 yds · 6 for 66 yds | -0.4 |
| +6.2 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 5 · 3 of 4 | +7.3 |
| +23.1 | All plays | +20.7 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 6.5 points to Houston Texans. The final margin was 3.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Jacksonville Jaguars closed as the market favourite at 56% and lost.
The line moved toward Houston Texans before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Texans +3 (-117)
Texans +2.5 (-108)
Jaguars -148 57%
Jaguars -140 56%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Xavier Hutchinson has 231 receiving yards for the Texans (35th of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 18.1%. Woody Marks has 149 rushing yards on 43 carries (35th of 41 qualified running backs). Parker Washington has 352 receiving yards for the Jaguars (14th of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 25.5%. Bhayshul Tuten has 349 rushing yards on 82 carries (11th of 41 qualified running backs).
- Carries43
- Rush yards14935th
- Yards per carry3.533rd
- EPA per rush−0.13828th
- Rush success rate32.6%37th
- Targets / catches31 / 16
- Receiving yards23135th
- Target share18.1%44th
- Yards per target7.553rd
- EPA per target+0.18952nd
- Targets / catches31 / 24
- Receiving yards2449th
- Target share18.1%13th
- Yards per target7.911th
- EPA per target+0.30115th
- Carries82
- Rush yards34911th
- Yards per carry4.315th
- EPA per rush−0.03917th
- Rush success rate42.7%16th
- Targets / catches35 / 22
- Receiving yards35214th
- Target share25.5%16th
- Yards per target10.116th
- EPA per target+0.60018th
- Targets / catches26 / 21
- Receiving yards23510th
- Target share19.0%9th
- Yards per target9.07th
- EPA per target+0.39911th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Texans | Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateTexans offense vs Jaguars defense | 42.7%18th | 43.5%18th |
| Early-down success rateJaguars offense vs Texans defense | 38.2%4th | 45.7%11th |
| Early-down EPA per playTexans offense vs Jaguars defense | +0.0918th | −0.0389th |
| Early-down EPA per playJaguars offense vs Texans defense | −0.0687th | +0.1257th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateTexans offense vs Jaguars defense | 38.5%18th | 35.1%10th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateJaguars offense vs Texans defense | 37.5%12th | 46.7%5th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playTexans offense vs Jaguars defense | −0.10119th | −0.1639th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playJaguars offense vs Texans defense | +0.11724th | +0.2813rd |
| Red-zone TD rateTexans offense vs Jaguars defense | 52.6%26th | 33.3%2nd |
| Red-zone TD rateJaguars offense vs Texans defense | 58.3%14th | 64.3%12th |
| Red-zone success rateTexans offense vs Jaguars defense | 37.2%23rd | 23.8%1st |
| Red-zone success rateJaguars offense vs Texans defense | 30.6%3rd | 45.7%9th |
On early downs the Texans succeed on 42.7% of plays (18th) against a Jaguars defense that allows 43.5% (18th); on 3rd down they convert 38.5% (18th) against a defense allowing 35.1% (10th). On early downs the Jaguars succeed on 45.7% of plays (11th) against a Texans defense that allows 38.2% (4th); on 3rd down they convert 46.7% (5th) against a defense allowing 37.5% (12th). The Texans score touchdowns on 52.6% of red-zone trips (26th). The Jaguars score touchdowns on 64.3% of red-zone trips (12th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Texans | Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | DeMeco Ryans | Liam Coen |
| Offensive coordinator | Nick Caley | Grant Udinski |
| Defensive coordinator | Matt Burke | Anthony Campanile |
| Offense tendencies | Texans | Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.0% | −1.2%14th-highest | −4.4%25th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.9% | 65.3%9th-highest | 54.9%29th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.3% | 61.5%7th-highest | 51.1%26th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 60.8% | 67.5%8th-highest | 54.4%25th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.4% | 5.5%18th-highest | 4.2%21st-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.9 | 33.015th-slowest | 34.36th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.2% | 19.6%4th | 20.3%3rd |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.8% | 11.1%2nd | 10.1%9th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.5% | 6.5%26th | 11.6%9th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 6.9%23rd | 6.3%19th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.94% | 0.64%3rd | 1.04%7th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.2 | 62.212th-most | 57.427th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.4% | 5 of 10 | 2 of 6 |
| Defense | Texans | Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 9.0%3rd | 5.6%19th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.2% | 20.3%32nd | 19.3%29th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.8% | 10.4%27th | 9.1%18th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.5% | 7.3%4th | 5.2%2nd |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.94% | 1.60%22nd | 2.71%5th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 18.0%8th | 16.7%14th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 14.3%9th | 18.5%27th |
The Texans run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−1.2% pass rate over expected, 14th-highest), while the Jaguars sit at −4.4% (25th-highest). In neutral situations the Texans take 33.0 seconds between snaps and the Jaguars 34.3, so the Texans play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Texans have gone for it 5 of 10 times and the Jaguars 2 of 6.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 22 times since 2015: the Texans won 17 and the Jaguars 5. In the most recent meeting (November 9, 2025), the Texans won 36-29; the Texans averaged +0.074 EPA per play; the Jaguars averaged −0.236 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2025 | Jaguars 29, Texans 36 Texans won | Jaguars -1.5 Texans covered | 37.5 over | Texans +0.074 · Jaguars −0.236 |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Texans 10, Jaguars 17 Jaguars won | Jaguars -1.5 Jaguars covered | 43.5 under | Texans −0.207 · Jaguars −0.163 |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Texans 23, Jaguars 20 Texans won | Texans -3.5 Jaguars covered | 44.5 under | Texans +0.073 · Jaguars +0.084 |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Jaguars 20, Texans 24 Texans won | Texans -5.5 Jaguars covered | 44.5 under | Texans +0.157 · Jaguars −0.013 |
| Nov 26, 2023 | Jaguars 24, Texans 21 Jaguars won | Jaguars -1 Jaguars covered | 48 under | Texans +0.057 · Jaguars +0.037 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Houston Texans
- Houston Texans team stats
- New York Giants 27, Houston Texans 21 (Oct 25)
- Houston Texans 26, Tennessee Titans 3 (Oct 11)
- Dallas Cowboys 34, Houston Texans 30 (Oct 4)
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Jacksonville Jaguars team stats
- Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (Nov 1)
- Philadelphia Eagles 17, Jacksonville Jaguars 19 (Oct 11)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 22, Cincinnati Bengals 17 (Oct 4)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 13, Denver Broncos 20 (Sep 20)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 18, 2026
- Chicago Bears 31, Atlanta Falcons 23 (Oct 18)
- Baltimore Ravens 10, Cleveland Browns 13 (Oct 18)
- Tennessee Titans 26, Indianapolis Colts 20 (Oct 18)
- New York Jets 19, New England Patriots 26 (Oct 18)
- New Orleans Saints 34, New York Giants 27 (Oct 18)
- Carolina Panthers 25, Philadelphia Eagles 14 (Oct 18)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 26, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 (Oct 18)
- Arizona Cardinals 18, Los Angeles Rams 16 (Oct 18)
- Los Angeles Chargers 6, Kansas City Chiefs 22 (Oct 18)
- Buffalo Bills 33, Las Vegas Raiders 30 (Oct 18)
- Dallas Cowboys 13, Green Bay Packers 23 (Oct 18)
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