Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns Final — October 18, 2026
BALStarting quarterbacksexpected startersCLE
BALOffense2026 regular season to dateCLEBALDefenseCLEBALRecent formCLEBALHome and roadseason to dateCLEInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
BALRest & travelCLEBALKey injuriesCLEAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Ravens (4-1) visited the Browns (3-2) at Huntington Bank Field on Sunday, October 18 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 6.
The Ravens have the 5th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 16th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Browns have the 26th-ranked offense and the 15th-ranked defense. When the Ravens have the ball, a 5th-ranked offense (+0.151 EPA per play) meets a 15th-ranked defense (−0.022 allowed); when the Browns have it, a 26th-ranked offense (−0.080) meets a 16th-ranked defense (−0.017 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Ravens offense is at 50.7% (2nd) and the Browns offense at 39.1% (28th). Through the air, the Ravens average +0.231 EPA per dropback (5th) against a Browns pass defense ranked 5th; the Browns average +0.055 (19th) against a Ravens pass defense ranked 17th. The Ravens score 29.2 points per game (6th) and allow 23.8 (19th); the Browns score 18.6 (27th) and allow 22.4 (14th).
Tyler Huntley has a 54.9% success rate (3rd of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Deshaun Watson's 43.4% (22nd). Per dropback, Huntley is at −0.066 EPA to Watson's +0.052, with 2 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions to Watson's 7 and 2. Tyler Huntley is in line to start in place of Lamar Jackson, who is listed as out on the injury report.
The Ravens are 4-1 and 2-3 against the spread; their last game was a 30-23 win over the Falcons. The Browns are 3-2 and 3-2 against the spread; their last game was a 17-12 loss to the Jets.
The Ravens closed as 3-point road favorites, with the Browns getting the points at home. The spread opened at Ravens -4.5. The total closed at 39.5, down from 40.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Ravens -175, Browns +145) prices the Ravens at 61% and the Browns at 39%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Baltimore Ravens 10, Cleveland Browns 13
Cleveland Browns won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Cleveland Browns +3): Cleveland Browns covered.
- Combined score 23 vs the closing total of 39.5: Under.
- Cleveland Browns closed at +145 on the moneyline (a 39% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 5 points toward Cleveland Browns.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Baltimore Ravens 61%, Cleveland Browns 39%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q4 12:45 — Baltimore Ravens ball, 1st & 5 at BAL 2322-D.Henry left tackle to BAL 33 for 5 yards (49-C.Schwesinger; 7-T.Campbell). FUMBLES (49-C.Schwesinger), RECOVERED by CLE-7-T.Campbell at BAL 35.Cleveland Browns 11% → 25% (+14 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 5:09 — Cleveland Browns ball, 3rd & 6 at BAL 39(Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 3-J.Jeudy to BAL 31 for 13 yards (24-M.Starks) [93-C.Campbell].Cleveland Browns 55% → 70% (+15 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 3:44 — Cleveland Browns ball, 4th & 8 at BAL 2925-A.Szmyt 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.Baltimore Ravens 42% → 70% (+28 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:42 — Cleveland Browns ball, 3rd & 5 at CLE 38(Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 3-J.Jeudy to BAL 29 for 33 yards (24-M.Starks).Cleveland Browns 56% → 81% (+26 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
- OT 10:00 — Cleveland Browns ball, 1st & 10 at BAL 1825-A.Szmyt 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.Cleveland Browns 85% → 100% (+15 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
Cleveland Browns won after falling as low as 9% (Q3 0:57).
Game DNA
| Ravens | Points added | Browns |
|---|---|---|
| -9.1 | Passingdropbacks | -13.4 |
| -4.0 | Rushingdesigned runs | -0.1 |
| +12.0 | Explosive plays6 plays · 4 plays | +6.0 |
| -5.0 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -3.8 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -0.1 |
| -1.1 | Penalties6 for 29 yds · 6 for 45 yds | -2.3 |
| +0.7 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 2 · 1 of 2 | +0.4 |
| -10.3 | All plays | -9.5 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 6.0 points to Baltimore Ravens. The final margin was 3.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Baltimore Ravens closed as the market favourite at 61% and lost.
The line moved toward Cleveland Browns before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Ravens -4.5 (-107)
Ravens -3 (-115)
Browns +182 34%
Browns +145 39%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Zay Flowers has 405 receiving yards for the Ravens (8th of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 29.8%. Derrick Henry has 476 rushing yards on 113 carries (5th of 41 qualified running backs). Denzel Boston has 330 receiving yards for the Browns (16th of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 19.7%. Quinshon Judkins has 221 rushing yards on 73 carries (29th of 41 qualified running backs).
- Carries113
- Rush yards4765th
- Yards per carry4.217th
- EPA per rush−0.04520th
- Rush success rate43.4%10th
- Targets / catches31 / 26
- Receiving yards4058th
- Target share29.8%6th
- Yards per target13.14th
- EPA per target+0.8367th
- Targets / catches30 / 22
- Receiving yards17716th
- Target share22.6%4th
- Yards per target5.928th
- EPA per target−0.03728th
- Carries73
- Rush yards22129th
- Yards per carry3.039th
- EPA per rush−0.27138th
- Rush success rate27.4%40th
- Targets / catches29 / 16
- Receiving yards33016th
- Target share19.7%38th
- Yards per target11.48th
- EPA per target+0.59019th
- Targets / catches27 / 18
- Receiving yards15721st
- Target share18.4%12th
- Yards per target5.829th
- EPA per target+0.33014th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Ravens | Browns |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateRavens offense vs Browns defense | 53.2%1st | 44.2%20th |
| Early-down success rateBrowns offense vs Ravens defense | 39.8%6th | 40.8%23rd |
| Early-down EPA per playRavens offense vs Browns defense | +0.2231st | +0.05723rd |
| Early-down EPA per playBrowns offense vs Ravens defense | −0.1095th | −0.05122nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateRavens offense vs Browns defense | 40.0%15th | 40.0%16th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBrowns offense vs Ravens defense | 41.5%19th | 30.6%30th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playRavens offense vs Browns defense | −0.02912th | −0.13312th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBrowns offense vs Ravens defense | +0.25129th | −0.10922nd |
| Red-zone TD rateRavens offense vs Browns defense | 73.7%6th | 50.0%4th |
| Red-zone TD rateBrowns offense vs Ravens defense | 55.6%12th | 45.5%31st |
| Red-zone success rateRavens offense vs Browns defense | 53.7%3rd | 42.9%17th |
| Red-zone success rateBrowns offense vs Ravens defense | 39.3%12th | 33.3%30th |
On early downs the Ravens succeed on 53.2% of plays (1st) against a Browns defense that allows 44.2% (20th); on 3rd down they convert 40.0% (15th) against a defense allowing 40.0% (16th). On early downs the Browns succeed on 40.8% of plays (23rd) against a Ravens defense that allows 39.8% (6th); on 3rd down they convert 30.6% (30th) against a defense allowing 41.5% (19th). The Ravens score touchdowns on 73.7% of red-zone trips (6th). The Browns score touchdowns on 45.5% of red-zone trips (31st).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Ravens | Browns |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Jesse Minter | Todd Monken |
| Offensive coordinator | Declan Doyle | Travis Switzer |
| Defensive coordinator | Anthony Weaver | Mike Rutenberg |
| Offense tendencies | Ravens | Browns |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.0% | −5.7%27th-highest | 0.1%12th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.9% | 52.6%31st-highest | 64.0%11th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.3% | 48.8%29th-highest | 58.3%11th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 60.8% | 55.0%24th-highest | 77.8%1st-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.4% | 4.0%23rd-highest | 3.1%26th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.9 | 36.01st-slowest | 30.430th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.2% | 21.6%2nd | 12.7%27th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.8% | 10.1%9th | 9.7%11th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.5% | 13.3%5th | 5.9%29th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 6.9%22nd | 10.3%32nd |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.94% | 0.99%5th | 2.08%20th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.2 | 60.418th-most | 57.625th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.4% | 3 of 4 | 3 of 4 |
| Defense | Ravens | Browns |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 5.1%21st | 8.2%5th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.2% | 14.1%12th | 15.1%14th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.8% | 9.2%20th | 9.5%22nd |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.5% | 9.6%19th | 15.7%32nd |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.94% | 1.92%18th | 1.88%20th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 16.5%15th | 17.5%9th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 12.6%2nd | 20.1%31st |
The Ravens run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−5.7% pass rate over expected, 27th-highest), while the Browns sit at 0.1% (12th-highest). In neutral situations the Ravens take 36.0 seconds between snaps and the Browns 30.4, so the Browns play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Ravens have gone for it 3 of 4 times and the Browns 3 of 4.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 22 times since 2015: the Ravens won 15 and the Browns 7. In the most recent meeting (November 16, 2025), the Ravens won 23-16; the Ravens averaged −0.088 EPA per play; the Browns averaged −0.409 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2025 | Ravens 23, Browns 16 Ravens won | Ravens -7.5 Browns covered | 37.5 over | Ravens −0.088 · Browns −0.409 |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Browns 17, Ravens 41 Ravens won | Ravens -12.5 Ravens covered | 46.5 over | Ravens +0.125 · Browns −0.263 |
| Jan 4, 2025 | Browns 10, Ravens 35 Ravens won | Ravens -19.5 Ravens covered | 42.5 over | Ravens +0.158 · Browns −0.453 |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Ravens 24, Browns 29 Browns won | Ravens -7.5 Browns covered | 44.5 over | Ravens +0.097 · Browns +0.132 |
| Nov 12, 2023 | Browns 33, Ravens 31 Browns won | Ravens -6 Browns covered | 38.5 over | Ravens −0.170 · Browns +0.087 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Baltimore Ravens
- Baltimore Ravens team stats
- Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (Nov 1)
- Cincinnati Bengals 35, Baltimore Ravens 13 (Oct 25)
- Baltimore Ravens 30, Atlanta Falcons 23 (Oct 11)
- Tennessee Titans 18, Baltimore Ravens 24 (Oct 4)
Cleveland Browns
- Cleveland Browns team stats
- Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (Nov 1)
- Cleveland Browns 27, Tennessee Titans 24 (Oct 25)
- Cleveland Browns 12, New York Jets 17 (Oct 11)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 24, Cleveland Browns 27 (Oct 1)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 18, 2026
- Houston Texans 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 31 (Oct 18)
- Chicago Bears 31, Atlanta Falcons 23 (Oct 18)
- Tennessee Titans 26, Indianapolis Colts 20 (Oct 18)
- New York Jets 19, New England Patriots 26 (Oct 18)
- New Orleans Saints 34, New York Giants 27 (Oct 18)
- Carolina Panthers 25, Philadelphia Eagles 14 (Oct 18)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 26, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 (Oct 18)
- Arizona Cardinals 18, Los Angeles Rams 16 (Oct 18)
- Los Angeles Chargers 6, Kansas City Chiefs 22 (Oct 18)
- Buffalo Bills 33, Las Vegas Raiders 30 (Oct 18)
- Dallas Cowboys 13, Green Bay Packers 23 (Oct 18)
Dig deeper
Follow the market every day
See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.
Odds boardTracked results