Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans Preview & Odds — November 19, 2026
INDStarting quarterbacksexpected startersHOU
INDOffense2026 regular season to dateHOUINDDefenseHOUINDRecent formHOUINDHome and roadseason to dateHOURest & travelrest and travel
INDRest & travelHOUAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 33 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Matchup preview
The Colts (2-7) visit the Texans (3-5) at NRG Stadium on Thursday, November 19 at 8:15 PM ET in Week 11.
The Colts have the 29th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 27th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Texans have the 8th-ranked offense and the 16th-ranked defense. When the Colts have the ball, a 29th-ranked offense (−0.125 EPA per play) meets a 16th-ranked defense (+0.003 allowed); when the Texans have it, a 8th-ranked offense (+0.060) meets a 27th-ranked defense (+0.075 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Colts offense is at 42.2% (19th) and the Texans offense at 42.9% (15th). Through the air, the Colts average −0.216 EPA per dropback (31st) against a Texans pass defense ranked 17th; the Texans average +0.178 (7th) against a Colts pass defense ranked 23rd. The Colts score 20.4 points per game (24th) and allow 27.7 (30th); the Texans score 26.1 (9th) and allow 24.0 (18th).
Over the last five games, the Colts rank 28th on offense and 28th on defense by EPA per play; the Texans rank 2nd and 16th.
C.J. Stroud has a 48.4% success rate (10th of 33 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Daniel Jones' 42.2% (25th). Per dropback, Stroud is at +0.188 EPA to Jones' −0.204, with 16 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions to Jones' 6 and 10.
The Colts are 2-7 and 4-4-1 against the spread; their last game was a 27-23 loss to the Cowboys. The Texans are 3-5 and 3-5 against the spread; their last game was a 44-22 win over the Chargers. Both teams are on a short week.
The Texans are 10-point favorites at home against the Colts. The total is 44. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Colts +375, Texans -500) prices the Colts at 20% and the Texans at 80%.
Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.
Market
Odds and line movement
Colts +10 (-108)
Texans -500 80%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Best available prices on Nov 14
- Colts +10-107BetRivers
- Texans -10-109Caesars
- Over 44-113BetRivers
- Under 44-108BetRivers
- Colts+410FanDuel
- Texans-413Polymarket US
Matchup
Players to watch
Keenan Allen has 351 receiving yards for the Colts (39th of 73 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 22.5%. Jonathan Taylor has 652 rushing yards on 160 carries (8th of 40 qualified running backs). Nico Collins has 384 receiving yards for the Texans (33rd of 73 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 20.2%. Woody Marks has 341 rushing yards on 95 carries (28th of 40 qualified running backs).
- Carries160
- Rush yards6528th
- Yards per carry4.124th
- EPA per rush−0.09224th
- Rush success rate41.2%18th
- Targets / catches58 / 40
- Receiving yards35139th
- Target share22.5%25th
- Yards per target6.164th
- EPA per target+0.12055th
- Targets / catches53 / 38
- Receiving yards27520th
- Target share23.2%4th
- Yards per target5.236th
- EPA per target−0.21736th
- Carries95
- Rush yards34128th
- Yards per carry3.632nd
- EPA per rush−0.14128th
- Rush success rate34.7%31st
- Targets / catches39 / 28
- Receiving yards38433rd
- Target share20.2%34th
- Yards per target9.813th
- EPA per target+0.6663rd
- Targets / catches47 / 35
- Receiving yards36410th
- Target share17.5%13th
- Yards per target7.715th
- EPA per target+0.26418th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Colts | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateColts offense vs Texans defense | 41.6%20th | 39.8%4th |
| Early-down success rateTexans offense vs Colts defense | 45.4%27th | 42.3%19th |
| Early-down EPA per playColts offense vs Texans defense | −0.14631st | −0.01612th |
| Early-down EPA per playTexans offense vs Colts defense | +0.11632nd | +0.0859th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateColts offense vs Texans defense | 37.2%22nd | 39.0%14th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateTexans offense vs Colts defense | 32.7%5th | 40.2%14th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playColts offense vs Texans defense | −0.11318th | +0.06722nd |
| 3rd-down EPA per playTexans offense vs Colts defense | −0.05014th | +0.0739th |
| Red-zone TD rateColts offense vs Texans defense | 58.3%17th | 66.7%21st |
| Red-zone TD rateTexans offense vs Colts defense | 62.5%17th | 58.1%18th |
| Red-zone success rateColts offense vs Texans defense | 45.3%10th | 41.5%16th |
| Red-zone success rateTexans offense vs Colts defense | 42.4%18th | 39.5%24th |
On early downs the Colts succeed on 41.6% of plays (20th) against a Texans defense that allows 39.8% (4th); on 3rd down they convert 37.2% (22nd) against a defense allowing 39.0% (14th). On early downs the Texans succeed on 42.3% of plays (19th) against a Colts defense that allows 45.4% (27th); on 3rd down they convert 40.2% (14th) against a defense allowing 32.7% (5th). The Colts score touchdowns on 58.3% of red-zone trips (17th). The Texans score touchdowns on 58.1% of red-zone trips (18th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Colts | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Shane Steichen | DeMeco Ryans |
| Offensive coordinator | Jim Bob Cooter | Nick Caley |
| Defensive coordinator | Lou Anarumo | Matt Burke |
| Offense tendencies | Colts | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.2% | −3.9%23rd-highest | −1.0%14th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 59.5%20th-highest | 63.2%11th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 54.9%17th-highest | 59.0%5th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 61.8% | 62.8%16th-highest | 68.9%7th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.6% | 4.2%24th-highest | 4.5%19th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.9 | 33.414th-slowest | 33.116th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.4% | 9.8%31st | 19.2%4th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 5.7%30th | 11.0%6th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.4% | 11.7%7th | 7.8%22nd |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.3% | 7.3%22nd | 5.2%10th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.99% | 2.97%30th | 0.82%1st |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.3 | 63.79th-most | 61.017th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 63.9% | 9 of 16 | 6 of 13 |
| Defense | Colts | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.3% | 6.4%16th | 9.2%2nd |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.4% | 18.7%30th | 19.8%31st |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 11.2%31st | 11.3%32nd |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.4% | 10.6%25th | 8.7%12th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.99% | 1.15%31st | 1.56%24th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.7% | 14.1%24th | 17.0%7th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.7% | 17.9%28th | 13.3%6th |
The Colts run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−3.9% pass rate over expected, 23rd-highest), while the Texans sit at −1.0% (14th-highest). In neutral situations the Colts take 33.4 seconds between snaps and the Texans 33.1, so the Texans play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Colts have gone for it 9 of 16 times and the Texans 6 of 13.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 24 times since 2015: the Colts won 12 and the Texans 11, with 1 tie. In the most recent meeting (September 27, 2026), the Colts won 19-17; the Texans averaged −0.092 EPA per play; the Colts averaged −0.114 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2026 | Texans 17, Colts 19 Colts won | Texans -1.5 Colts covered | 41.5 under | Texans −0.092 · Colts −0.114 |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Colts 30, Texans 38 Texans won | Texans -9.5 Colts covered | 37.5 over | Texans −0.019 · Colts −0.073 |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Texans 20, Colts 16 Texans won | Colts -3 Texans covered | 44.5 under | Texans +0.011 · Colts −0.116 |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Colts 20, Texans 23 Texans won | Texans -5 Colts covered | 45 under | Texans −0.069 · Colts −0.093 |
| Sep 8, 2024 | Texans 29, Colts 27 Texans won | Texans -3 Colts covered | 49 over | Texans +0.141 · Colts +0.052 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Result
After the final: score vs the closing line, Drive X-Ray and the graded official play, if there was one, appear here on this same page.
Teams
Indianapolis Colts
- Indianapolis Colts team stats
- Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (Nov 15)
- Dallas Cowboys 27, Indianapolis Colts 23 (Nov 8)
- Indianapolis Colts 7, Jacksonville Jaguars 42 (Nov 1)
- Indianapolis Colts 10, Minnesota Vikings 16 (Oct 25)
Houston Texans
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