Dallas Cowboys vs Indianapolis Colts Final — November 8, 2026
DALStarting quarterbacksexpected startersIND
DALOffense2026 regular season to dateINDDALDefenseINDDALRecent formINDDALHome and roadseason to dateINDInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
DALRest & travelINDDALKey injuriesINDAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 35 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Cowboys (3-5) visited the Colts (2-6) at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday, November 8 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 9.
The Cowboys have the 7th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 31st-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Colts have the 30th-ranked offense and the 24th-ranked defense. When the Cowboys have the ball, a 7th-ranked offense (+0.091 EPA per play) meets a 24th-ranked defense (+0.065 allowed); when the Colts have it, a 30th-ranked offense (−0.115) meets a 31st-ranked defense (+0.126 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Cowboys offense is at 46.6% (9th) and the Colts offense at 42.0% (21st). Through the air, the Cowboys average +0.148 EPA per dropback (9th) against a Colts pass defense ranked 22nd; the Colts average −0.210 (31st) against a Cowboys pass defense ranked 30th. The Cowboys score 27.4 points per game (7th) and allow 26.6 (27th); the Colts score 20.1 (26th) and allow 27.8 (30th).
Over the last five games, the Cowboys rank 12th on offense and 28th on defense by EPA per play; the Colts rank 30th and 16th.
Dak Prescott has a 48.8% success rate (12th of 35 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Daniel Jones' 42.6% (26th). Per dropback, Prescott is at +0.152 EPA to Jones' −0.197, with 14 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions to Jones' 5 and 9.
The Cowboys are 3-5 and 4-4 against the spread; their last game was a 33-30 loss to the Cardinals. The Colts are 2-6 and 4-4 against the spread; their last game was a 42-7 loss to the Jaguars.
The Cowboys closed as 4-point road favorites, with the Colts getting the points at home. The spread opened at Cowboys -5.5. The total closed at 51.5, down from 52.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Cowboys -211, Colts +172) prices the Cowboys at 65% and the Colts at 35%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Dallas Cowboys 27, Indianapolis Colts 23
Dallas Cowboys won by 4.
- Against the closing spread (Indianapolis Colts +4): push.
- Combined score 50 vs the closing total of 51.5: Under.
- Dallas Cowboys closed at -211 on the moneyline (a 65% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 5 points toward Indianapolis Colts.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Dallas Cowboys 65%, Indianapolis Colts 35%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q4 9:55 — Indianapolis Colts ball, 1st & 10 at DAL 1828-J.Taylor up the middle to DAL 20 for -2 yards (92-Q.Williams). FUMBLES (92-Q.Williams), RECOVERED by DAL-50-S.James at DAL 19. 50-S.James to DAL 30 for 11 yards (17-D.Jones). PENALTY on DAL, Unsportsmanlike ConDallas Cowboys 52% → 77% (+25 pts) · Drive 21 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 5:09 — Dallas Cowboys ball, 2nd & 10 at DAL 30(Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb to IND 39 for 31 yards (30-H.Wohler; 0-C.Bynum).Dallas Cowboys 64% → 78% (+13 pts) · Drive 24 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 3:34 — Dallas Cowboys ball, 4th & 3 at IND 3217-B.Aubrey 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.Indianapolis Colts 28% → 58% (+30 pts) · Drive 24 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:37 — Dallas Cowboys ball, 1st & 10 at DAL 35(Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 19-R.Flournoy to IND 19 for 46 yards (1-A.Gardner).Dallas Cowboys 39% → 68% (+29 pts) · Drive 26 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:19 — Dallas Cowboys ball, 2nd & 10 at IND 19(Shotgun) 33-J.Williams up the middle to IND 11 for 8 yards (30-H.Wohler). PENALTY on IND-90-G.Stewart, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at IND 11.Dallas Cowboys 63% → 76% (+12 pts) · Drive 26 in Drive X-Ray
Dallas Cowboys won after falling as low as 26% (Q4 1:55).
Game DNA
| Cowboys | Points added | Colts |
|---|---|---|
| -4.1 | Passingdropbacks | -11.5 |
| -4.1 | Rushingdesigned runs | -1.8 |
| +21.4 | Explosive plays14 plays · 3 plays | +7.0 |
| -5.0 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -7.9 |
| -2.4 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +5.6 |
| -5.7 | Penalties14 for 153 yds · 9 for 67 yds | +1.0 |
| +1.5 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 3 · 1 of 2 | +2.0 |
| +1.7 | All plays | -5.7 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 14.5 points to Dallas Cowboys. The final margin was 4.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Dallas Cowboys closed as the market favourite at 65% and won.
The line moved toward Indianapolis Colts before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Cowboys -5.5 (-110)
Cowboys -4 (-105)
Colts +220 30%
Colts +172 35%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Matchup
Players to watch
CeeDee Lamb has 709 receiving yards for the Cowboys (3rd of 76 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 31.3%. Javonte Williams has 528 rushing yards on 134 carries (14th of 42 qualified running backs). Keenan Allen has 325 receiving yards for the Colts (38th of 76 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 22.1%. Jonathan Taylor has 606 rushing yards on 147 carries (8th of 42 qualified running backs).
- Carries134
- Rush yards52814th
- Yards per carry3.926th
- EPA per rush+0.01410th
- Rush success rate44.8%9th
- Targets / catches92 / 60
- Receiving yards7093rd
- Target share31.3%4th
- Yards per target7.743rd
- EPA per target+0.35132nd
- Targets / catches18 / 13
- Receiving yards110
- Target share6.1%
- Yards per target6.1
- EPA per target+0.186
- Carries147
- Rush yards6068th
- Yards per carry4.122nd
- EPA per rush−0.05921st
- Rush success rate40.1%21st
- Targets / catches50 / 36
- Receiving yards32538th
- Target share22.1%27th
- Yards per target6.562nd
- EPA per target+0.21546th
- Targets / catches46 / 34
- Receiving yards23123rd
- Target share23.5%4th
- Yards per target5.036th
- EPA per target−0.25134th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Cowboys | Colts |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateCowboys offense vs Colts defense | 45.1%11th | 45.1%25th |
| Early-down success rateColts offense vs Cowboys defense | 44.4%23rd | 40.9%24th |
| Early-down EPA per playCowboys offense vs Colts defense | +0.0908th | +0.09929th |
| Early-down EPA per playColts offense vs Cowboys defense | +0.10831st | −0.15731st |
| 3rd-down conversion rateCowboys offense vs Colts defense | 47.5%4th | 33.0%7th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateColts offense vs Cowboys defense | 52.4%31st | 38.9%17th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playCowboys offense vs Colts defense | +0.1129th | +0.01217th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playColts offense vs Cowboys defense | +0.29831st | −0.03414th |
| Red-zone TD rateCowboys offense vs Colts defense | 67.6%10th | 61.9%17th |
| Red-zone TD rateColts offense vs Cowboys defense | 69.7%26th | 59.1%15th |
| Red-zone success rateCowboys offense vs Colts defense | 38.5%24th | 42.9%15th |
| Red-zone success rateColts offense vs Cowboys defense | 51.0%28th | 44.1%14th |
On early downs the Cowboys succeed on 45.1% of plays (11th) against a Colts defense that allows 45.1% (25th); on 3rd down they convert 47.5% (4th) against a defense allowing 33.0% (7th). On early downs the Colts succeed on 40.9% of plays (24th) against a Cowboys defense that allows 44.4% (23rd); on 3rd down they convert 38.9% (17th) against a defense allowing 52.4% (31st). The Cowboys score touchdowns on 67.6% of red-zone trips (10th). The Colts score touchdowns on 59.1% of red-zone trips (15th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Cowboys | Colts |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Brian Schottenheimer | Shane Steichen |
| Offensive coordinator | Klayton Adams | Jim Bob Cooter |
| Defensive coordinator | Christian Parker | Lou Anarumo |
| Offense tendencies | Cowboys | Colts |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | 0.9%7th-highest | −4.6%25th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 64.7%6th-highest | 58.9%19th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 61.2%3rd-highest | 54.2%17th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 61.4% | 64.0%13th-highest | 63.8%14th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.5% | 8.6%6th-highest | 3.9%23rd-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 31.429th-slowest | 33.614th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.4% | 13.5%23rd | 10.4%30th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 6.6%27th | 6.1%29th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.5% | 6.7%26th | 12.4%6th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.2% | 3.3%2nd | 7.6%24th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.92% | 1.17%6th | 2.92%29th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.4 | 63.99th-most | 64.28th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 63.3% | 6 of 6 | 9 of 16 |
| Defense | Cowboys | Colts |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.2% | 5.1%25th | 6.2%17th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.4% | 17.6%23rd | 18.1%26th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 10.1%24th | 9.9%23rd |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.5% | 11.2%27th | 9.3%15th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.92% | 1.18%30th | 0.88%31st |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.6% | 14.0%22nd | 13.5%25th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.6% | 13.0%5th | 18.8%29th |
The Cowboys pass more often than down, distance and score would suggest (0.9% pass rate over expected, 7th-highest), while the Colts sit at −4.6% (25th-highest). In neutral situations the Cowboys take 31.4 seconds between snaps and the Colts 33.6, so the Cowboys play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Cowboys have gone for it 6 of 6 times and the Colts 9 of 16.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2015: the Cowboys won 1 and the Colts 1. In the most recent meeting (December 4, 2022), the Cowboys won 54-19; the Cowboys averaged +0.214 EPA per play; the Colts averaged −0.298 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2022 | Colts 19, Cowboys 54 Cowboys won | Cowboys -11 Cowboys covered | 44.5 over | Cowboys +0.214 · Colts −0.298 |
| Dec 16, 2018 | Cowboys 0, Colts 23 Colts won | Colts -3 Colts covered | 47 under | Cowboys −0.158 · Colts +0.079 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Dallas Cowboys
- Dallas Cowboys team stats
- San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys (Nov 15)
- Arizona Cardinals 33, Dallas Cowboys 30 (Nov 1)
- Dallas Cowboys 38, Philadelphia Eagles 21 (Oct 26)
- Dallas Cowboys 13, Green Bay Packers 23 (Oct 18)
Indianapolis Colts
- Indianapolis Colts team stats
- Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (Nov 15)
- Indianapolis Colts 7, Jacksonville Jaguars 42 (Nov 1)
- Indianapolis Colts 10, Minnesota Vikings 16 (Oct 25)
- Tennessee Titans 26, Indianapolis Colts 20 (Oct 18)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on November 8, 2026
- Cincinnati Bengals 34, Atlanta Falcons 17 (Nov 8)
- Denver Broncos 26, Carolina Panthers 21 (Nov 8)
- New York Jets 12, Kansas City Chiefs 35 (Nov 8)
- Detroit Lions 19, Miami Dolphins 9 (Nov 8)
- Cleveland Browns 22, New Orleans Saints 23 (Nov 8)
- New York Giants 19, Philadelphia Eagles 11 (Nov 8)
- Los Angeles Rams 20, Washington Commanders 13 (Nov 8)
- Houston Texans 44, Los Angeles Chargers 22 (Nov 8)
- Green Bay Packers 45, New England Patriots 27 (Nov 8)
- Las Vegas Raiders 17, San Francisco 49ers 38 (Nov 8)
- Arizona Cardinals 3, Seattle Seahawks 17 (Nov 8)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24, Chicago Bears 27 (Nov 8)
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