New York Giants vs Houston Texans Final — October 25, 2026
NYGStarting quarterbacksexpected startersHOU
NYGOffense2026 regular season to dateHOUNYGDefenseHOUNYGRecent formHOUNYGHome and roadseason to dateHOUInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
NYGRest & travelHOUNYGKey injuriesHOUAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Giants (3-2-1) visited the Texans (2-4) at NRG Stadium on Sunday, October 25 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 7.
The Giants have the 18th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 21st-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Texans have the 12th-ranked offense and the 20th-ranked defense. When the Giants have the ball, a 18th-ranked offense (−0.025 EPA per play) meets a 20th-ranked defense (−0.005 allowed); when the Texans have it, a 12th-ranked offense (+0.040) meets a 21st-ranked defense (+0.022 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Giants offense is at 42.3% (18th) and the Texans offense at 43.2% (16th). Through the air, the Giants average +0.061 EPA per dropback (16th) against a Texans pass defense ranked 20th; the Texans average +0.149 (10th) against a Giants pass defense ranked 21st. The Giants score 22.7 points per game (18th) and allow 23.3 (19th); the Texans score 24.0 (14th) and allow 23.8 (20th).
Over the last five games, the Giants rank 27th on offense and 18th on defense by EPA per play; the Texans rank 12th and 11th.
J.J. McCarthy has a 60.0% success rate (1st of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to C.J. Stroud's 49.4% (11th). Per dropback, McCarthy is at +0.430 EPA to Stroud's +0.163, with 1 touchdown pass and 1 interception to Stroud's 9 and 1.
The Giants are 3-2-1 and 4-2 against the spread; their last game was a 34-27 loss to the Saints. The Texans are 2-4 and 2-4 against the spread; their last game was a 34-31 win over the Jaguars.
The Texans closed as 10-point favorites at home against the Giants. The spread opened at Texans -8. The total closed 42.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Giants +380, Texans -500) prices the Giants at 20% and the Texans at 80%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
New York Giants 27, Houston Texans 21
New York Giants won by 6.
- Against the closing spread (Houston Texans -10): New York Giants covered.
- Combined score 48 vs the closing total of 42.5: Over.
- New York Giants closed at +380 on the moneyline (a 20% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Houston Texans.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (New York Giants 20%, Houston Texans 80%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q4 9:36 — New York Giants ball, 3rd & 9 at HOU 30(Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short left to 88-M.Fields pushed ob at HOU 16 for 14 yards (11-T.Smith).New York Giants 45% → 58% (+13 pts) · Drive 15 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:57 — Houston Texans ball, 3rd & 3 at NYG 3(Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 19-X.Hutchinson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Houston Texans 31% → 53% (+22 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:16 — New York Giants ball, 1st & 10 at NYG 30(Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short right to 1-M.Nabers to NYG 32 for 2 yards (29-M.Stewart).Houston Texans 56% → 73% (+18 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
- OT 8:23 — New York Giants ball, 2nd & 1 at NYG 2844-C.Skattebo up the middle to HOU 30 for 42 yards (3-K.Lassiter).New York Giants 55% → 77% (+23 pts) · Drive 21 in Drive X-Ray
- OT 7:33 — New York Giants ball, 1st & 10 at HOU 30(Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary up the middle for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.New York Giants 77% → 100% (+23 pts) · Drive 21 in Drive X-Ray
New York Giants won after falling as low as 18% (Q1 13:38).
Game DNA
| Giants | Points added | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| -10.5 | Passingdropbacks | -13.2 |
| -0.8 | Rushingdesigned runs | -2.2 |
| +23.6 | Explosive plays11 plays · 6 plays | +8.0 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -6.9 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +4.3 |
| +1.2 | Penalties4 for 50 yds · 10 for 80 yds | -0.7 |
| +3.3 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 3 · 2 of 2 | +4.0 |
| +9.9 | All plays | +0.2 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 15.6 points to New York Giants. The final margin was 6.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Houston Texans closed as the market favourite at 80% and lost.
The line moved toward Houston Texans before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Giants +8 (-112)
Giants +10 (-106)
Texans -435 78%
Texans -500 80%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Malik Nabers has 494 receiving yards for the Giants (7th of 79 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 29.6%. Cam Skattebo has 294 rushing yards on 81 carries (21st of 40 qualified running backs). Nico Collins has 323 receiving yards for the Texans (23rd of 79 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 23.4%. Woody Marks has 205 rushing yards on 58 carries (32nd of 40 qualified running backs).
- Carries81
- Rush yards29421st
- Yards per carry3.627th
- EPA per rush−0.17430th
- Rush success rate35.8%27th
- Targets / catches61 / 41
- Receiving yards4947th
- Target share29.6%6th
- Yards per target8.138th
- EPA per target+0.20750th
- Targets / catches59 / 39
- Receiving yards3831st
- Target share28.6%1st
- Yards per target6.524th
- EPA per target+0.23114th
- Carries58
- Rush yards20532nd
- Yards per carry3.530th
- EPA per rush−0.14428th
- Rush success rate32.8%33rd
- Targets / catches30 / 22
- Receiving yards32323rd
- Target share23.4%22nd
- Yards per target10.810th
- EPA per target+0.7975th
- Targets / catches37 / 28
- Receiving yards2779th
- Target share18.2%11th
- Yards per target7.514th
- EPA per target+0.22518th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Giants | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateGiants offense vs Texans defense | 40.5%22nd | 40.7%7th |
| Early-down success rateTexans offense vs Giants defense | 43.9%20th | 43.2%16th |
| Early-down EPA per playGiants offense vs Texans defense | −0.06224th | −0.00513th |
| Early-down EPA per playTexans offense vs Giants defense | +0.06624th | +0.1019th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateGiants offense vs Texans defense | 43.2%9th | 40.8%18th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateTexans offense vs Giants defense | 42.3%21st | 39.5%15th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playGiants offense vs Texans defense | +0.02110th | +0.08823rd |
| 3rd-down EPA per playTexans offense vs Giants defense | −0.04317th | −0.00912th |
| Red-zone TD rateGiants offense vs Texans defense | 61.1%15th | 62.5%19th |
| Red-zone TD rateTexans offense vs Giants defense | 75.0%28th | 54.2%17th |
| Red-zone success rateGiants offense vs Texans defense | 40.8%19th | 41.5%14th |
| Red-zone success rateTexans offense vs Giants defense | 40.4%11th | 39.7%21st |
On early downs the Giants succeed on 40.5% of plays (22nd) against a Texans defense that allows 40.7% (7th); on 3rd down they convert 43.2% (9th) against a defense allowing 40.8% (18th). On early downs the Texans succeed on 43.2% of plays (16th) against a Giants defense that allows 43.9% (20th); on 3rd down they convert 39.5% (15th) against a defense allowing 42.3% (21st). The Giants score touchdowns on 61.1% of red-zone trips (15th). The Texans score touchdowns on 54.2% of red-zone trips (17th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Giants | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | John Harbaugh | DeMeco Ryans |
| Offensive coordinator | Matt Nagy | Nick Caley |
| Defensive coordinator | Dennard Wilson | Matt Burke |
| Offense tendencies | Giants | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −1.6% | −4.5%27th-highest | −0.7%13th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 61.4% | 60.7%17th-highest | 64.3%9th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.8% | 55.5%17th-highest | 60.6%7th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 61.5% | 62.6%15th-highest | 67.0%11th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.4% | 8.5%9th-highest | 5.4%16th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.9 | 34.92nd-slowest | 33.116th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.2% | 17.5%10th | 19.2%5th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.5% | 8.3%19th | 11.2%3rd |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.3% | 5.9%28th | 6.8%24th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.1% | 7.6%25th | 5.9%17th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.92% | 2.55%24th | 0.81%3rd |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.5 | 64.78th-most | 61.716th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 60.4% | 3 of 5 | 5 of 12 |
| Defense | Giants | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.1% | 3.8%30th | 7.4%10th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.2% | 15.2%16th | 20.4%32nd |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.5% | 7.4%9th | 11.1%29th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.3% | 12.0%29th | 6.8%4th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.92% | 2.25%11th | 1.58%24th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.9% | 10.4%31st | 16.0%14th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.9% | 17.0%24th | 13.0%4th |
The Giants run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−4.5% pass rate over expected, 27th-highest), while the Texans sit at −0.7% (13th-highest). In neutral situations the Giants take 34.9 seconds between snaps and the Texans 33.1, so the Texans play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Giants have gone for it 3 of 5 times and the Texans 5 of 12.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2015: the Giants won 2 and the Texans 0. In the most recent meeting (November 13, 2022), the Giants won 24-16; the Texans averaged +0.010 EPA per play; the Giants averaged +0.144 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2022 | Texans 16, Giants 24 Giants won | Giants -5.5 Giants covered | 41.5 under | Texans +0.010 · Giants +0.144 |
| Sep 23, 2018 | Giants 27, Texans 22 Giants won | Texans -6.5 Giants covered | 44 over | Texans +0.079 · Giants +0.208 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
New York Giants
- New York Giants team stats
- New Orleans Saints 34, New York Giants 27 (Oct 18)
- New York Giants 27, Washington Commanders 27 (Oct 11)
- Arizona Cardinals 24, New York Giants 36 (Oct 4)
Houston Texans
- Houston Texans team stats
- Houston Texans 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 31 (Oct 18)
- Houston Texans 26, Tennessee Titans 3 (Oct 11)
- Dallas Cowboys 34, Houston Texans 30 (Oct 4)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 25, 2026
- Pittsburgh Steelers 16, New Orleans Saints 10 (Oct 25)
- San Francisco 49ers 20, Atlanta Falcons 29 (Oct 25)
- Cincinnati Bengals 35, Baltimore Ravens 13 (Oct 25)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 43, Carolina Panthers 13 (Oct 25)
- Indianapolis Colts 10, Minnesota Vikings 16 (Oct 25)
- Miami Dolphins 28, New York Jets 25 (Oct 25)
- Cleveland Browns 27, Tennessee Titans 24 (Oct 25)
- Denver Broncos 30, Arizona Cardinals 16 (Oct 25)
- Green Bay Packers 17, Detroit Lions 20 (Oct 25)
- Los Angeles Rams 35, Las Vegas Raiders 21 (Oct 25)
- Kansas City Chiefs 3, Seattle Seahawks 20 (Oct 25)
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