Vegas Golden Knights vs Pittsburgh Penguins Final — November 3, 2026
VGKStarting goaliesPIT
VGKOffense2026-27 regular season to datePITVGKDefensePITVGKTeamPITVGK5-on-5PITVGKSpecial teamsPITVGKRecent formPITVGKHome and roadseason to datePITInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
VGKRest & travelPITVGKKey injuriesPITAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
2026-27 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2026-27 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2026-27 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is a straight-line estimate from the arena of each team's previous game, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Days of rest are full days off since each team's previous game this season (0 = back-to-back); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.
No key players listed.
Key players only. Injury report as of November 3, 6:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Golden Knights (9-5-2) visited the Penguins (5-7-2) on Tuesday, November 3 at 7:10 PM ET.
The Golden Knights score 3.44 goals per game (10th of 32) and allow 2.94 (9th). The Penguins score 3.36 goals per game (14th of 32) and allow 3.50 (25th). The Golden Knights earn 62.5% of available standings points (9th) and the Penguins 42.9% (26th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Golden Knights 55.1% (5th), Penguins 54.1% (8th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Golden Knights 51.6% (12th), Penguins 52.3% (9th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Golden Knights 59.2% (7th), Penguins 66.0% (3rd).
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Golden Knights -102, Penguins -119) prices the Golden Knights at 48% and the Penguins at 52%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Vegas Golden Knights won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5): Vegas Golden Knights covered.
- Combined score 5 vs the closing total of 6.5: Under.
- Vegas Golden Knights closed at -102 on the moneyline (a 48% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Pittsburgh Penguins.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Vegas Golden Knights 48%, Pittsburgh Penguins 52%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 3rd 9:58 — Pittsburgh Penguins goal (1-2)Pittsburgh Penguins 51% → 83% (+32 pts)
- 3rd 11:19 — Vegas Golden Knights goal (2-2)Vegas Golden Knights 16% → 49% (+34 pts)
- 3rd 19:25 — Vegas Golden Knights goal (3-2)Vegas Golden Knights 52% → >99% (+48 pts)
Vegas Golden Knights won after falling as low as 16% (3rd 11:19).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Vegas Golden Knights won 54% of G&W replays (Pittsburgh Penguins 46%). The chances each team created were close to even.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.
| Golden Knights | Goals | Penguins |
|---|---|---|
| 1.3 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 1.9 |
| 1.5 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.6 |
| 0.2 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.3 |
| 3.0 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 2.8 |
| 0.3 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.2 |
| +0.0 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -0.8 |
| +0.8 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Adin Hill 23/25 · Arturs Silovs 20/23 | -0.0 |
How the margin was built, from Vegas Golden Knights's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Pittsburgh Penguins closed as the market favourite at 52% and lost.
The line moved toward Pittsburgh Penguins before puck drop, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Golden Knights -1.5 (+205)
Golden Knights +1.5 (-250)
Penguins -105 49%
Penguins -119 52%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 15 times since 2018-19: the Golden Knights won 7 and the Penguins 8.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Penguins 2, Golden Knights 6 Golden Knights won | Golden Knights -220 favorite won | 6.5 over |
| Mar 12, 2026 | Penguins 2, Golden Knights 6 Golden Knights won | Golden Knights -175 favorite won | 6.5 over |
| Mar 1, 2026 | Golden Knights 0, Penguins 5 Penguins won | Golden Knights -150 underdog won | 6.5 under |
| Mar 11, 2025 | Golden Knights 2, Penguins 3 OT Penguins won | Golden Knights -194 underdog won | 6.5 under |
| Mar 7, 2025 | Penguins 0, Golden Knights 4 Golden Knights won | Golden Knights -250 favorite won | 6.5 under |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Vegas Golden Knights
- Vegas Golden Knights team stats
- Vegas Golden Knights at Detroit Red Wings (Nov 5)
- Vegas Golden Knights 2, Boston Bruins 3 (Nov 2)
- New Jersey Devils 5, Vegas Golden Knights 2 (Oct 30)
- Ottawa Senators 1, Vegas Golden Knights 4 (Oct 27)
Pittsburgh Penguins
More NHL games on November 3, 2026
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