Utah Mammoth vs Toronto Maple Leafs Final — November 3, 2026
UTAHStarting goaliesTOR
UTAHOffense2026-27 regular season to dateTORUTAHDefenseTORUTAHTeamTORUTAH5-on-5TORUTAHSpecial teamsTORUTAHRecent formTORUTAHHome and roadseason to dateTORInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
UTAHRest & travelTORUTAHKey injuriesTORAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
2026-27 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2026-27 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2026-27 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is a straight-line estimate from the arena of each team's previous game, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Days of rest are full days off since each team's previous game this season (0 = back-to-back); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.
Key players only. Injury report as of November 3, 12:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Mammoth (9-6-0) visited the Maple Leafs (8-6-2) on Tuesday, November 3 at 7:10 PM ET.
The Mammoth score 3.60 goals per game (8th of 32) and allow 3.47 (24th). The Maple Leafs score 3.75 goals per game (4th of 32) and allow 3.31 (19th). The Mammoth earn 60.0% of available standings points (14th) and the Maple Leafs 56.2% (19th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Mammoth 59.3% (2nd), Maple Leafs 49.2% (21st). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Mammoth 55.2% (4th), Maple Leafs 46.8% (26th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Mammoth 66.0% (3rd), Maple Leafs 46.2% (22nd).
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Mammoth -148, Maple Leafs +124) prices the Mammoth at 57% and the Maple Leafs at 43%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Utah Mammoth 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Utah Mammoth won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5): Toronto Maple Leafs covered.
- Combined score 5 vs the closing total of 6.5: Under.
- Utah Mammoth closed at -148 on the moneyline (a 57% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 4 points toward Utah Mammoth.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Utah Mammoth 57%, Toronto Maple Leafs 43%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 2nd 13:42 — Utah Mammoth goal (2-1)Utah Mammoth 55% → 76% (+21 pts)
- 3rd 9:05 — Toronto Maple Leafs goal (2-2)Toronto Maple Leafs 16% → 46% (+30 pts)
- 3rd 13:12 — Utah Mammoth goal (3-2)Utah Mammoth 55% → 89% (+35 pts)
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Utah Mammoth won 79% of G&W replays (Toronto Maple Leafs 21%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Utah Mammoth. Here is where that came from.
| Mammoth | Goals | Maple Leafs |
|---|---|---|
| 2.6 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 1.4 |
| 1.1 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.3 |
| 0.2 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.0 |
| 3.9 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 1.7 |
| 0.0 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.5 |
| 0.8 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.2 |
| -0.9 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -0.1 |
| +0.1 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Sebastian Cossa 27/29 · Sergei Bobrovsky 33/36 | +0.9 |
How the margin was built, from Utah Mammoth's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Utah Mammoth closed as the market favourite at 57% and won.
The line moved toward Utah Mammoth before puck drop, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Mammoth -1.5 (+187)
Mammoth -1.5 (+155)
Maple Leafs +107 46%
Maple Leafs +124 43%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 15 times since 2018-19: the Mammoth won 8 and the Maple Leafs 7.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Maple Leafs 4, Mammoth 5 Mammoth won | Mammoth -162 favorite won | 6.5 over |
| Jan 13, 2026 | Maple Leafs 1, Mammoth 6 Mammoth won | Mammoth -162 favorite won | 6 over |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Mammoth 3, Maple Leafs 5 Maple Leafs won | Maple Leafs -155 favorite won | 6.5 over |
| Mar 10, 2025 | Maple Leafs 4, Mammoth 3 SO Maple Leafs won | ||
| Nov 24, 2024 | Mammoth 2, Maple Leafs 3 Maple Leafs won |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Utah Mammoth
- Utah Mammoth team stats
- Utah Mammoth at Montréal Canadiens (Nov 5)
- Utah Mammoth 3, Philadelphia Flyers 6 (Nov 1)
- Utah Mammoth 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (Oct 29)
- Minnesota Wild 3, Utah Mammoth 1 (Oct 27)
Toronto Maple Leafs
More NHL games on November 3, 2026
- Colorado Avalanche 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 7 (Nov 3)
- Winnipeg Jets 5, Montréal Canadiens 4 (Nov 3)
- St Louis Blues 1, New York Rangers 3 (Nov 3)
- Minnesota Wild 4, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (Nov 3)
- Vegas Golden Knights 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2 (Nov 3)
- Detroit Red Wings 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (Nov 3)
- Dallas Stars 6, Washington Capitals 5 (Nov 3)
- Edmonton Oilers 3, New Jersey Devils 4 (Nov 3)
- Carolina Hurricanes 1, Nashville Predators 4 (Nov 3)
- Anaheim Ducks 5, Vancouver Canucks 4 (Nov 3)
Dig deeper
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