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NHL · October 29, 2026

Montréal Canadiens vs Dallas Stars Final — October 29, 2026

Montréal Canadiens

7-3-2

Goalie Jakub Dobes Confirmed

FINAL

Dallas Stars

7-4-1

Goalie Jake Oettinger Confirmed

Thursday, October 29 · 8:10 PM ET

MTLStarting goaliesDAL

This season

Starts

.847

Sv%

.929

.750

HDSv%

.879

−6.7

GSAx

+8.5

Last season

Starts

.901

Sv%

.899

.827

HDSv%

.840

+16.8

GSAx

+7.0

MTLOffense2026-27 regular season to dateDAL

13th3.17

GF/G

2.7524th

32nd3.37

PP GF/60

6.2521st

MTLDefenseDAL

10th3.00

GA/G

2.081st

11th6.13

PK GA/60

2.351st

MTLTeamDAL

7th66.7%

Pts%

62.5%10th

11th52.8%

xGF%

55.1%7th

6th54.4%

CF%

52.5%10th

8th58.5%

HDCF%

55.9%12th

MTL5-on-5DAL

6th2.77

xGF/60

2.4218th

16th2.48

xGA/60

1.972nd

14th9.5%

Sh%

8.9%20th

13th90.9%

Sv%

90.9%14th

13th113.8

CF/60 (both)

104.932nd

18th−0.13

GAx/G

−0.4225th

8th+0.32

GSAx/G

+0.594th

19th10.4%

Sh%

9.9%20th

6th90.2%

Sv%

91.7%2nd

MTLSpecial teamsDAL

32nd5.04

PP xG/60

10.693rd

31st57.3

PP FF/60

86.24th

28th4.5

PP min/G

4.031st

14th7.51

PK xGA/60

5.973rd

31st6.5

PK min/G

6.430th

MTLRecent formDAL

Wvs BUF 4-3OTLvs SJS 3-4W@ CHI 4-1W@ WPG 2-1W@ STL 2-0

Resultsoldest to newest

W@ CHI 4-0Wvs BOS 3-2Wvs WPG 3-2Wvs NYI 6-3Lvs NJD 1-5

Game by game

7-3-2

Record

7-4-1

4-0-1

Last 5

4-1-0

6-3-1

Last 10

7-2-1

7-5

Over–under

2-10

MTLHome and roadseason to dateDAL

3-2-1

Home record

4-3-0

4-1-1

Road record

3-1-1

5-1

Home O/U

2-5

2-4

Road O/U

0-5

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel

MTLRest & travelDAL

1 day

Days of rest

1 day

547 mi881 km · straight-line from previous game (estimate)

Travel to the game

Home

MTLKey injuriesDAL

Nick Suzuki COutIvan Demidov RWIR

Players out or limited

Esa Lindell DIRMatt Duchene CIR

About these numbers

Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.

2026-27 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

2026-27 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.

2026-27 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.

Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.

Distance is a straight-line estimate from the arena of each team's previous game, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Days of rest are full days off since each team's previous game this season (0 = back-to-back); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.

Key players only. Injury report as of October 29, 12:40 p.m. ET.

The pre-game matchup

The Canadiens (7-3-2) visited the Stars (7-4-1) on Thursday, October 29 at 8:10 PM ET.

The Canadiens score 3.17 goals per game (13th of 32) and allow 3.00 (10th). The Stars score 2.75 goals per game (24th of 32) and allow 2.08 (1st). The Canadiens earn 66.7% of available standings points (7th) and the Stars 62.5% (10th).

Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Canadiens 52.8% (11th), Stars 55.1% (7th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Canadiens 54.4% (6th), Stars 52.5% (10th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Canadiens 58.5% (8th), Stars 55.9% (12th).

The total closed 5.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Canadiens +145, Stars -175) prices the Canadiens at 39% and the Stars at 61%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Montréal Canadiens 5, Dallas Stars 2

Montréal Canadiens won by 3.

Against the closing spread (Dallas Stars -1.5): Montréal Canadiens covered.
Combined score 7 vs the closing total of 5.5: Over.
Montréal Canadiens closed at +145 on the moneyline (a 39% no-vig market-implied chance).

Actual result

Final

Montréal Canadiens 5
Dallas Stars 2

Decided

In regulation

Montréal Canadiens won

Lead changes

Before the game: market and G&W

39%Market at the close61%

Montréal CanadiensDallas Stars

42%Market at the open58%

From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Dallas Stars.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Montréal Canadiens 39%, Dallas Stars 61%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.

Biggest swings

1st 12:53 — Dallas Stars goal (1-1)Dallas Stars 44% → 61% (+17 pts)
1st 16:05 — Montréal Canadiens goal (2-1)Montréal Canadiens 40% → 58% (+17 pts)
1st 16:32 — Montréal Canadiens goal (3-1)Montréal Canadiens 58% → 74% (+16 pts)

Montréal Canadiens won after falling as low as 39% (1st 12:53).

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

59%MTL

Share of G&W replays won

41%DAL

2.2

Expected goals

1.7

Final score

Based on the quality of chances each team created, Montréal Canadiens won 59% of G&W replays (Dallas Stars 41%). The chances each team created were close to even.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.

Canadiens	Goals	Stars
1.6	5-on-5 chancesexpected goals	0.9
0.6	Power-play chancesexpected goals	0.8
0.0	Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed	0.0
2.2	Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result	1.7
0.0	Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result	0.1
0.1	Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above	0.0
+1.8	Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots	+0.1
-0.1	Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Jakub Dobes 17/19 · Jake Oettinger 16/20	-1.8
1	Empty-net goals	0

Bar left: Canadiens gainedBar right: Stars gained

How the margin was built, from Montréal Canadiens's side:

Chances +0.4Finishing & goaltending +1.6Empty net +1Montréal Canadiens by 3

The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.

The official play, graded

The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.

Official playUnder 6.5 -1270.5uLOSS -0.64u

Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.

Line review

Dallas Stars closed as the market favourite at 61% and lost.

The line moved toward Dallas Stars before puck drop, and they lost.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market

Closing line and line movement

Puck lineno move

OpenStars -1.5 (+160)
Canadiens +1.5 (-196)

CloseStars -1.5 (+144)
Canadiens +1.5 (-180)

Totalno move

Open5.5 (o -132 / u +110)

Close5.5 (o -134 / u +110)

Moneyline

OpenCanadiens +130 42%
Stars -155 58%

CloseCanadiens +145 39%
Stars -175 61%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Head-to-head

The teams have met 14 times since 2018-19: the Canadiens won 5 and the Stars 9.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Jan 4, 2026	Canadiens 4, Stars 3 OT Canadiens won	Stars -190 underdog won	6.5 over
Nov 13, 2025	Stars 7, Canadiens 0 Stars won	Canadiens -118 underdog won	5.5 over
Jan 16, 2025	Canadiens 3, Stars 1 Canadiens won	Stars -220 underdog won	6 under
Jan 11, 2025	Stars 2, Canadiens 1 SO Stars won	Stars -230 favorite won	6 under
Feb 10, 2024	Stars 3, Canadiens 2 Stars won	Stars -235 favorite won	6.5 under

Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.

Teams