Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning Final — November 3, 2026
DETStarting goaliesTB
DETOffense2026-27 regular season to dateTBDETDefenseTBDETTeamTBDET5-on-5TBDETSpecial teamsTBDETRecent formTBDETHome and roadseason to dateTBInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
DETRest & travelTBDETKey injuriesTBAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
2026-27 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2026-27 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2026-27 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is a straight-line estimate from the arena of each team's previous game, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Days of rest are full days off since each team's previous game this season (0 = back-to-back); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.
Key players only. Injury report as of November 3, 6:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Red Wings (7-5-3) visited the Lightning (8-3-2) on Tuesday, November 3 at 7:10 PM ET.
The Red Wings score 3.07 goals per game (20th of 32) and allow 3.07 (12th). The Lightning score 3.69 goals per game (6th of 32) and allow 3.31 (18th). The Red Wings earn 56.7% of available standings points (18th) and the Lightning 69.2% (6th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Red Wings 56.0% (4th), Lightning 54.5% (6th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Red Wings 52.9% (7th), Lightning 54.4% (5th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Red Wings 69.0% (2nd), Lightning 54.5% (11th).
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Red Wings +230, Lightning -285) prices the Red Wings at 29% and the Lightning at 71%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Detroit Red Wings 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Tampa Bay Lightning won by 2.
- Against the closing spread (Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5): Tampa Bay Lightning covered.
- Combined score 6 vs the closing total of 6.5: Under.
- Tampa Bay Lightning closed at -285 on the moneyline (a 71% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Tampa Bay Lightning.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Detroit Red Wings 29%, Tampa Bay Lightning 71%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 7:54 — Tampa Bay Lightning goal (0-1)Tampa Bay Lightning 71% → 83% (+12 pts)
- 1st 13:01 — Tampa Bay Lightning goal (0-2)Tampa Bay Lightning 82% → 92% (+9 pts)
- 3rd 5:29 — Detroit Red Wings goal (2-3)Detroit Red Wings 3% → 15% (+12 pts)
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Tampa Bay Lightning won 76% of G&W replays (Detroit Red Wings 24%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Tampa Bay Lightning. Here is where that came from.
| Red Wings | Goals | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| 1.2 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 2.9 |
| 0.7 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.9 |
| 0.0 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.1 |
| 1.9 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 3.9 |
| 0.8 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.0 |
| 0.2 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.0 |
| -0.7 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -0.9 |
| +0.9 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Daniil Tarasov 12/13, John Gibson 11/13 · Andrei Vasilevskiy 19/21 | +0.7 |
| 0 | Empty-net goals | 1 |
How the margin was built, from Tampa Bay Lightning's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Tampa Bay Lightning closed as the market favourite at 71% and won.
The line moved toward Tampa Bay Lightning before puck drop, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Red Wings +1.5 (-117)
Red Wings +1.5 (-109)
Lightning -260 69%
Lightning -285 71%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 33 times since 2018-19: the Red Wings won 13 and the Lightning 20.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2026 | Red Wings 3, Lightning 4 OT Lightning won | ||
| Mar 12, 2026 | Red Wings 1, Lightning 4 Lightning won | Lightning -220 favorite won | 6 under |
| Nov 28, 2025 | Lightning 6, Red Wings 3 Lightning won | Lightning -126 favorite won | 6.5 over |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Lightning 1, Red Wings 2 OT Red Wings won | Lightning -130 underdog won | 5.5 under |
| Apr 11, 2025 | Red Wings 4, Lightning 3 OT Red Wings won | Lightning -310 underdog won | 6 over |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Detroit Red Wings
- Detroit Red Wings team stats
- Vegas Golden Knights at Detroit Red Wings (Nov 5)
- Detroit Red Wings 5, Florida Panthers 3 (Nov 2)
- St Louis Blues 5, Detroit Red Wings 4 (Oct 31)
- Chicago Blackhawks 1, Detroit Red Wings 4 (Oct 29)
Tampa Bay Lightning
More NHL games on November 3, 2026
- Colorado Avalanche 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 7 (Nov 3)
- Winnipeg Jets 5, Montréal Canadiens 4 (Nov 3)
- St Louis Blues 1, New York Rangers 3 (Nov 3)
- Minnesota Wild 4, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (Nov 3)
- Vegas Golden Knights 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2 (Nov 3)
- Utah Mammoth 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (Nov 3)
- Dallas Stars 6, Washington Capitals 5 (Nov 3)
- Edmonton Oilers 3, New Jersey Devils 4 (Nov 3)
- Carolina Hurricanes 1, Nashville Predators 4 (Nov 3)
- Anaheim Ducks 5, Vancouver Canucks 4 (Nov 3)
Dig deeper
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