Louisiana Ragin Cajuns vs USC Trojans Final — September 12, 2026
Rest & travelrest and travel
ULRest & travelUSC
About these numbers
Margin of each of the last 2 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Louisiana visited USC on Saturday, September 12 at 11:00 PM ET.
USC closed as a 30.5-point favorite at home against Louisiana. The spread opened at USC -28.5. The total closed at 58.5, down from 60 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Louisiana +2500, USC -10000) prices Louisiana at 4% and USC at 96%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 30, USC Trojans 49
USC Trojans won by 19.
- Against the closing spread (USC Trojans -30.5): Louisiana Ragin Cajuns covered.
- Combined score 79 vs the closing total of 58.5: Over.
- USC Trojans closed at -10000 on the moneyline (a 96% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 4%, USC Trojans 96%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, USC Trojans would win 94% of the time (Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 6%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured USC Trojans. Here is where that came from.
| Louisiana | Points added | USC |
|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | Passingdropbacks | +6.1 |
| +8.1 | Rushingdesigned runs | +2.2 |
| +15.6 | Explosive plays6 plays · 4 plays | +14.0 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -3.4 |
| -11.2 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -0.9 |
| -4.0 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -2.8 |
| +4.3 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 3 · 4 of 4 | +6.6 |
| +10.8 | All plays | +21.9 |
The biggest single gap: special teams, worth about 10.2 points to USC Trojans. The final margin was 19.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
USC Trojans closed as the market favourite at 96% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Louisiana +28.5 (-110)
Louisiana +30.5 (-108)
USC -10000 96%
USC -10000 96%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Teams
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns
- Louisiana Ragin Cajuns team stats
- Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 31, Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles 35 (Oct 24)
- Troy Trojans 6, Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 33 (Oct 17)
- Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 31, Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 32 (Oct 10)
USC Trojans
- USC Trojans team stats
- Ohio State Buckeyes at USC Trojans (Oct 31)
- USC Trojans 7, Wisconsin Badgers 24 (Oct 24)
- USC Trojans 31, Penn State Nittany Lions 23 (Oct 10)
- Washington Huskies 21, USC Trojans 25 (Oct 3)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on September 12, 2026
- UCF Knights 7, Pittsburgh Panthers 12 (Sep 12)
- UTSA Roadrunners 31, Texas State Bobcats 26 (Sep 12)
- UNLV Rebels 6, North Texas Mean Green 44 (Sep 12)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 26, Marshall Thundering Herd 28 (Sep 12)
- Navy Midshipmen 30, Florida Atlantic Owls 38 (Sep 12)
- Charlotte 49ers 9, Ole Miss Rebels 41 (Sep 12)
Dig deeper
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