UTSA Roadrunners vs Texas State Bobcats Final — September 12, 2026
Rest & travelrest and travel
UTSARest & travelTXST
About these numbers
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
UTSA visited Texas State on Saturday, September 12 at 3:30 PM ET.
Texas State closed as a 2.5-point favorite at home against UTSA. The spread opened with UTSA favored by 1.5. The total closed at 65.5, up from 64.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (UTSA +105, Texas State -129) prices UTSA at 46% and Texas State at 54%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
UTSA Roadrunners 31, Texas State Bobcats 26
UTSA Roadrunners won by 5.
- Against the closing spread (Texas State Bobcats -2.5): UTSA Roadrunners covered.
- Combined score 57 vs the closing total of 65.5: Under.
- UTSA Roadrunners closed at +105 on the moneyline (a 46% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 5 points toward Texas State Bobcats.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (UTSA Roadrunners 46%, Texas State Bobcats 54%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q3 13:01 — UTSA Roadrunners ball, 1st & 10 at TXST 44No Huddle-Shotgun #0 D.Amador II pass complete deep right to #14 M.Anderson caught at TXST08, for 44 yards to the TXST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:01, 1ST DOWN #92 M.P…UTSA Roadrunners 23% → 34% (+12 pts) · Drive 14 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 3:28 — UTSA Roadrunners ball, 4th & 5 at UTSA 23No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short middle to #0 D.Amador II caught at UTSA28, for 8 yards to the UTSA31 (#16 T.Cooks II; #9 J.Bradley), 1ST DOWNUTSA Roadrunners 33% → 48% (+15 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 2:42 — UTSA Roadrunners ball, 2nd & 8 at UTSA 33No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass incomplete short left to #0 D.Amador II thrown to UTSA40 QB hurried by #16 T.Cooks II PENALTY UTSA Personal Foul 15 yards from…Texas State Bobcats 54% → 66% (+11 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:51 — UTSA Roadrunners ball, 4th & 5 at UTSA 36No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UTSA42 (#7 R.Nolan), 1ST DOWNUTSA Roadrunners 33% → 54% (+21 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:14 — UTSA Roadrunners ball, 1st & 10 at TXST 25Brandon High Jr. 25 Yd Run (Michael Petro Kick)UTSA Roadrunners 64% → 95% (+31 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
UTSA Roadrunners won after falling as low as 16% (Q3 13:37).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, UTSA Roadrunners would win 83% of the time (Texas State Bobcats 17%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured UTSA Roadrunners. Here is where that came from.
| UTSA | Points added | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| -4.3 | Passingdropbacks | -0.5 |
| -3.0 | Rushingdesigned runs | +0.1 |
| +11.3 | Explosive plays3 plays · 3 plays | +6.5 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -4.0 |
| -0.5 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -2.9 |
| -1.8 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -6.0 |
| +2.4 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 3 · 3 of 6 | +7.0 |
| +4.0 | All plays | +0.2 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 4.8 points to UTSA Roadrunners. The final margin was 5.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Texas State Bobcats closed as the market favourite at 54% and lost.
The line moved toward Texas State Bobcats before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
UTSA -1.5 (-108)
UTSA +2.5 (-110)
Texas State -102 49%
Texas State -129 54%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 3 times since 2021: UTSA won 1 and Texas State 2.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2025 | Texas State 43, UTSA 36 Texas State won | ||
| Sep 7, 2024 | UTSA 10, Texas State 49 Texas State won | ||
| Sep 9, 2023 | Texas State 13, UTSA 20 UTSA won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
UTSA Roadrunners
- UTSA Roadrunners team stats
- UTSA Roadrunners 42, Tulane Green Wave 19 (Oct 24)
- Navy Midshipmen 34, UTSA Roadrunners 38 (Oct 17)
- South Florida Bulls 24, UTSA Roadrunners 31 (Oct 8)
Texas State Bobcats
- Texas State Bobcats team stats
- Texas State Bobcats at Boise State Broncos (Oct 31)
- Utah State Aggies 17, Texas State Bobcats 20 (Oct 24)
- Colorado State Rams 27, Texas State Bobcats 66 (Oct 15)
- Texas State Bobcats 29, San Diego State Aztecs 31 (Oct 3)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on September 12, 2026
- UCF Knights 7, Pittsburgh Panthers 12 (Sep 12)
- UNLV Rebels 6, North Texas Mean Green 44 (Sep 12)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 26, Marshall Thundering Herd 28 (Sep 12)
- Navy Midshipmen 30, Florida Atlantic Owls 38 (Sep 12)
- Charlotte 49ers 9, Ole Miss Rebels 41 (Sep 12)
- Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 30, USC Trojans 49 (Sep 12)
Dig deeper
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