UNLV Rebels vs North Texas Mean Green Final — September 12, 2026
Rest & travelrest and travel
UNLVRest & travelUNT
About these numbers
Margin of each of the last 2 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
UNLV visited North Texas on Saturday, September 12 at 3:45 PM ET.
UNLV closed as a 2.5-point road favorite, with North Texas getting the points at home. The spread opened at UNLV -6.5. The total closed 57.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (UNLV -148, North Texas +120) prices UNLV at 57% and North Texas at 43%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
UNLV Rebels 6, North Texas Mean Green 44
North Texas Mean Green won by 38.
- Against the closing spread (North Texas Mean Green +2.5): North Texas Mean Green covered.
- Combined score 50 vs the closing total of 57.5: Under.
- North Texas Mean Green closed at +120 on the moneyline (a 43% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 8 points toward North Texas Mean Green.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (UNLV Rebels 57%, North Texas Mean Green 43%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 9:02 — UNLV Rebels ball, 1st & 10 at UNLV 38Shotgun #11 J.Arnold sacked for loss of 15 yards to the UNLV23 (#91 D.Rhodes), fumble by #11 J.Arnold recovered by UNT #15 J.Benton at UNLV23, End Of PlayNorth Texas Mean Green 50% → 60% (+10 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 8:50 — North Texas Mean Green ball, 1st & 10 at UNLV 23Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass incomplete short left to #1 J.White thrown to UNLV27UNLV Rebels 28% → 43% (+15 pts) · Drive 4 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 5:10 — UNLV Rebels ball, 2nd & 1 at UNLV 45Shotgun #0 J.Glover rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UNLV49 fumbled by #0 J.Glover at UNLV47 forced by #88 W.Hudson recovered by UNT #3 Z.Barker at UNLV49, En…North Texas Mean Green 58% → 69% (+12 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 3:51 — North Texas Mean Green ball, 2nd & 10 at UNLV 32Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short right to #1 J.White caught at UNLV37, for 32 yards to the UNLV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:51, 1ST DOWN #90 D.De Freitas kick…North Texas Mean Green 70% → 78% (+8 pts) · Drive 6 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 11:57 — UNLV Rebels ball, 2nd & 18 at UNLV 46Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass incomplete short left to #24 D.Jones thrown to UNT42North Texas Mean Green 74% → 80% (+6 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, North Texas Mean Green would win >99% of the time (UNLV Rebels <1%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured North Texas Mean Green. Here is where that came from.
| UNLV | Points added | North Texas |
|---|---|---|
| +5.8 | Passingdropbacks | -1.8 |
| -6.1 | Rushingdesigned runs | -4.3 |
| +2.0 | Explosive plays1 plays · 8 plays | +21.4 |
| -11.0 | Turnovers3 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +0.6 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +2.1 |
| -0.4 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -1.6 |
| -3.5 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 3 · 4 of 6 | +2.7 |
| -12.6 | All plays | +18.6 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 19.5 points to North Texas Mean Green. The final margin was 38.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
UNLV Rebels closed as the market favourite at 57% and lost.
The line moved toward North Texas Mean Green before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
UNLV -6.5 (-105)
UNLV -2.5 (-116)
North Texas +173 35%
North Texas +120 43%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Success by situation
| Situation | UNLV | North Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateUNLV offense vs North Texas defense | 36.9%78th | 38.2%56th |
| Early-down success rateNorth Texas offense vs UNLV defense | 38.4%58th | 46.5%19th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateUNLV offense vs North Texas defense | 33.3%72nd | 62.5%109th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateNorth Texas offense vs UNLV defense | 37.5%49th | 46.2%37th |
| Explosive play rateUNLV offense vs North Texas defense | 7.9%45th | 13.6%108th |
| Explosive play rateNorth Texas offense vs UNLV defense | 3.8%24th | 6.9%53rd |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 45.0%82nd-highest | 48.3%68th-highest |
On 3rd down UNLV converts 33.3% (72nd) against a North Texas defense allowing 62.5% (109th).
On 3rd down North Texas converts 46.2% (37th) against a UNLV defense allowing 37.5% (49th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 116 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 1 time since 2021: UNLV won 1 and North Texas 0.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2022 | North Texas 27, UNLV 58 UNLV won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
UNLV Rebels
- UNLV Rebels team stats
- Northern Illinois Huskies at UNLV Rebels (Oct 31)
- UNLV Rebels 31, Air Force Falcons 41 (Oct 17)
- North Dakota State Bison 7, UNLV Rebels 13 (Oct 10)
- California Golden Bears 31, UNLV Rebels 39 (Oct 3)
North Texas Mean Green
- North Texas Mean Green team stats
- Florida Atlantic Owls at North Texas Mean Green (Oct 29)
- North Texas Mean Green 49, Navy Midshipmen 39 (Oct 24)
- Charlotte 49ers 10, North Texas Mean Green 50 (Oct 10)
- North Texas Mean Green 45, Tulsa Golden Hurricane 44 (Oct 1)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on September 12, 2026
- UCF Knights 7, Pittsburgh Panthers 12 (Sep 12)
- UTSA Roadrunners 31, Texas State Bobcats 26 (Sep 12)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 26, Marshall Thundering Herd 28 (Sep 12)
- Navy Midshipmen 30, Florida Atlantic Owls 38 (Sep 12)
- Charlotte 49ers 9, Ole Miss Rebels 41 (Sep 12)
- Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 30, USC Trojans 49 (Sep 12)
Dig deeper
Follow the market every day
See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.
Odds boardTracked results