Navy Midshipmen vs Florida Atlantic Owls Final — September 12, 2026
Rest & travelrest and travel
NAVYRest & travelFAU
About these numbers
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Navy visited Florida Atlantic on Saturday, September 12 at 7:30 PM ET.
Navy closed as a 4.5-point road favorite, with Florida Atlantic getting the points at home. The spread opened at Navy -6.5. The total closed at 59.5, up from 58.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Navy -200, Florida Atlantic +163) prices Navy at 64% and Florida Atlantic at 36%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Navy Midshipmen 30, Florida Atlantic Owls 38
Florida Atlantic Owls won by 8.
- Against the closing spread (Florida Atlantic Owls +4.5): Florida Atlantic Owls covered.
- Combined score 68 vs the closing total of 59.5: Over.
- Florida Atlantic Owls closed at +163 on the moneyline (a 36% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Florida Atlantic Owls.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Navy Midshipmen 64%, Florida Atlantic Owls 36%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 14:18 — Florida Atlantic Owls ball, 2nd & 11 at FAU 24No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Veltkamp pass complete deep middle to #8 E.Messer caught at Navy35, for 76 yards to the Navy00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:18, 1ST DOWN #41 C.Rog…Florida Atlantic Owls 34% → 49% (+15 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 13:12 — Navy Midshipmen ball, 2nd & 7 at FAU 48Shotgun #5 B.Woodson rush left for 48 yards gain to the FAU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:12, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was inbound…Navy Midshipmen 53% → 64% (+10 pts) · Drive 2 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 7:07 — Florida Atlantic Owls ball, 1st & 10 at NAVY 39No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Veltkamp pass complete short right to #2 K.Valsin caught at Navy34, for 5 yards to the Navy34, out of bounds at Navy34Florida Atlantic Owls 68% → 93% (+25 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 6:27 — Florida Atlantic Owls ball, 2nd & 5 at NAVY 34No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Veltkamp pass complete short left to #4 A.Woody caught at Navy38, for 5 yards to the Navy29 (#6 P.Hamilton), 1ST DOWNNavy Midshipmen 4% → 37% (+33 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 5:26 — Florida Atlantic Owls ball, 2nd & 11 at NAVY 30No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Veltkamp pass complete deep right to #2 K.Valsin caught at Navy00, for 30 yards to the Navy00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:26, 1ST DOWN #41 C.Roge…Florida Atlantic Owls 68% → 78% (+10 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
Florida Atlantic Owls won after falling as low as 26% (Q1 9:27).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Florida Atlantic Owls would win 94% of the time (Navy Midshipmen 6%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Florida Atlantic Owls. Here is where that came from.
| Navy | Points added | Florida Atlantic |
|---|---|---|
| -10.3 | Passingdropbacks | -4.5 |
| -0.8 | Rushingdesigned runs | +0.7 |
| +23.1 | Explosive plays6 plays · 4 plays | +15.2 |
| -4.6 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -7.3 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -6.8 |
| -0.4 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +1.1 |
| +1.3 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 1 · 2 of 3 | +1.0 |
| +1.1 | All plays | +6.7 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 7.9 points to Navy Midshipmen. The final margin was 8.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Navy Midshipmen closed as the market favourite at 64% and lost.
The line moved toward Florida Atlantic Owls before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Navy -6.5 (-115)
Navy -4.5 (-110)
Florida Atlantic +180 34%
Florida Atlantic +163 36%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 1 time since 2021: Navy won 1 and Florida Atlantic 0.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | Florida Atlantic 32, Navy 42 Navy won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Navy Midshipmen
- Navy Midshipmen team stats
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Navy Midshipmen (Oct 31)
- North Texas Mean Green 49, Navy Midshipmen 39 (Oct 24)
- Navy Midshipmen 34, UTSA Roadrunners 38 (Oct 17)
- Tulsa Golden Hurricane 26, Navy Midshipmen 34 (Oct 10)
Florida Atlantic Owls
- Florida Atlantic Owls team stats
- Florida Atlantic Owls at North Texas Mean Green (Oct 29)
- Rice Owls 49, Florida Atlantic Owls 51 (Oct 24)
- Florida Atlantic Owls 24, Army Black Knights 56 (Oct 17)
- Texas Southern Tigers 10, Florida Atlantic Owls 66 (Oct 3)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on September 12, 2026
- UCF Knights 7, Pittsburgh Panthers 12 (Sep 12)
- UTSA Roadrunners 31, Texas State Bobcats 26 (Sep 12)
- UNLV Rebels 6, North Texas Mean Green 44 (Sep 12)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 26, Marshall Thundering Herd 28 (Sep 12)
- Charlotte 49ers 9, Ole Miss Rebels 41 (Sep 12)
- Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 30, USC Trojans 49 (Sep 12)
Dig deeper
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