UCF Knights vs Pittsburgh Panthers Final — September 12, 2026
Rest & travelrest and travel
UCFRest & travelPITT
About these numbers
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
UCF visited Pittsburgh on Saturday, September 12 at 3:30 PM ET.
Pittsburgh closed as a 7-point favorite at home against UCF. The spread opened at Pittsburgh -7.5. The total closed at 55.5, down from 57.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (UCF +225, Pittsburgh -285) prices UCF at 29% and Pittsburgh at 71%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
UCF Knights 7, Pittsburgh Panthers 12
Pittsburgh Panthers won by 5.
- Against the closing spread (Pittsburgh Panthers -7): UCF Knights covered.
- Combined score 19 vs the closing total of 55.5: Under.
- Pittsburgh Panthers closed at -285 on the moneyline (a 71% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward UCF Knights.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (UCF Knights 29%, Pittsburgh Panthers 71%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q4 2:24 — Pittsburgh Panthers ball, 4th & 1 at PITT 34#98 G.Russo punt 44 yards to the UCF22 fair catch by #7 A.Jackson at UCF22UCF Knights 11% → 43% (+32 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:31 — UCF Knights ball, 3rd & 6 at UCF 26No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III rush right for 2 yards gain to the UCF28 (#5 Z.Crothers)Pittsburgh Panthers 43% → 52% (+9 pts) · Drive 23 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:23 — UCF Knights ball, 4th & 4 at UCF 28Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins sacked for loss of 2 yards to the UCF26 (#7 D.Ward, #32 J.Marcelin), TURNOVER ON DOWNSPittsburgh Panthers 52% → 78% (+26 pts) · Drive 23 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:20 — Pittsburgh Panthers ball, 1st & 10 at UCF 26Kneel down by #6 M.Heintschel at UCF28 for loss of 2 yardsUCF Knights 22% → 32% (+10 pts) · Drive 24 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:15 — Pittsburgh Panthers ball, 3rd & 13 at UCF 29Kneel down by #6 M.Heintschel at UCF30 for loss of 1 yardPittsburgh Panthers 63% → 100% (+37 pts) · Drive 24 in Drive X-Ray
Pittsburgh Panthers won after falling as low as 38% (Q4 2:12).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Pittsburgh Panthers would win 86% of the time (UCF Knights 14%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Pittsburgh Panthers. Here is where that came from.
| UCF | Points added | Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|
| -15.8 | Passingdropbacks | +2.0 |
| -8.1 | Rushingdesigned runs | -11.1 |
| +5.1 | Explosive plays2 plays · 1 plays | +4.7 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +0.3 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -6.4 |
| -5.3 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -4.1 |
| +0.2 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 1 · 1 of 2 | +2.8 |
| -23.6 | All plays | -12.1 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 17.8 points to Pittsburgh Panthers. The final margin was 5.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Pittsburgh Panthers closed as the market favourite at 71% and won.
The line moved toward UCF Knights before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
UCF +7.5 (-111)
UCF +7 (-108)
Pittsburgh -305 72%
Pittsburgh -285 71%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Teams
UCF Knights
- UCF Knights team stats
- Baylor Bears at UCF Knights (Oct 30)
- BYU Cougars 31, UCF Knights 39 (Oct 24)
- UCF Knights 28, Oklahoma State Cowboys 42 (Oct 10)
- UCF Knights 17, Houston Cougars 27 (Oct 3)
Pittsburgh Panthers
- Pittsburgh Panthers team stats
- Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Pittsburgh Panthers (Oct 31)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 23, Miami Hurricanes 52 (Oct 24)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 21, Boston College Eagles 27 (Oct 17)
- North Carolina Tar Heels 21, Pittsburgh Panthers 17 (Oct 10)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on September 12, 2026
- UTSA Roadrunners 31, Texas State Bobcats 26 (Sep 12)
- UNLV Rebels 6, North Texas Mean Green 44 (Sep 12)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 26, Marshall Thundering Herd 28 (Sep 12)
- Navy Midshipmen 30, Florida Atlantic Owls 38 (Sep 12)
- Charlotte 49ers 9, Ole Miss Rebels 41 (Sep 12)
- Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 30, USC Trojans 49 (Sep 12)
Dig deeper
Follow the market every day
See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.
Odds boardTracked results