Navy Midshipmen vs UTSA Roadrunners Final — October 17, 2026
NAVYOffense2026 regular season to dateUTSA
NAVYDefenseUTSANAVYRecent formUTSANAVYHome and roadseason to dateUTSANAVYLast 10 gamesUTSARest & travelrest and travel
NAVYRest & travelUTSAAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Navy (1-3) visited UTSA (4-1) on Saturday, October 17 at 8:00 PM ET.
Navy has the 84th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 84th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, UTSA has the 37th-ranked offense and the 88th-ranked defense. When Navy has the ball, a 84th-ranked offense (+0.019 EPA per play) meets a 88th-ranked defense (+0.111 allowed); when UTSA has it, a 37th-ranked offense (+0.145) meets a 84th-ranked defense (+0.097 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Navy offense is at 46.6% (75th) and the UTSA offense at 49.0% (46th). Navy scores 23.2 points per game (82nd) and allows 25.5 (64th); UTSA scores 28.6 (53rd) and allows 27.8 (80th).
Navy is 2-3 and 1-4 against the spread; its last game was a 34-26 win over Tulsa. UTSA is 5-1 and 4-2 against the spread; its last game was a 31-24 win over South Florida.
UTSA closed as a 5.5-point favorite at home against Navy. The spread opened at UTSA -6.5. The total closed at 53.5, down from 56.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Navy +183, UTSA -222) prices Navy at 34% and UTSA at 66%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Navy Midshipmen 34, UTSA Roadrunners 38
UTSA Roadrunners won by 4.
- Against the closing spread (UTSA Roadrunners -5.5): Navy Midshipmen covered.
- Combined score 72 vs the closing total of 53.5: Over.
- UTSA Roadrunners closed at -222 on the moneyline (a 66% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 4 points toward Navy Midshipmen.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Navy Midshipmen 34%, UTSA Roadrunners 66%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q4 12:47 — Navy Midshipmen ball, 2nd & 10 at NAVY 8Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez pass complete deep left to #84 J.Collins caught at NAVY30, for 92 yards to the UTSA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:47, 1ST DOWN #44 N.Bartley kick…Navy Midshipmen 22% → 51% (+29 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 8:54 — UTSA Roadrunners ball, 4th & 3 at UTSA 47#2 O.McCown pass complete deep left to #84 A.Wilson caught at NAVY32, for 22 yards to the NAVY31 (#8 A.Rose), 1ST DOWNUTSA Roadrunners 41% → 62% (+20 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 7:05 — Navy Midshipmen ball, 2nd & 1 at NAVY 36#5 B.Woodson pass complete short left to #8 J.Gutierrez caught at NAVY48, for 63 yards to the UTSA01 (#20 Z.Morris), 1ST DOWNNavy Midshipmen 30% → 58% (+28 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 4:50 — Navy Midshipmen ball, 3rd & 7 at UTSA 7No Huddle-Shotgun #5 B.Woodson rush right for 7 yards gain to the UTSA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:50 #44 N.Bartley kick attempt good (H: #11 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry)Navy Midshipmen 40% → 55% (+16 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 2:24 — UTSA Roadrunners ball, 1st & 10 at NAVY 41No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short right to #28 A.Peterson caught at NAVY36, for 41 yards to the NAVY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:24, 1ST DOWN #3 M.Petr…UTSA Roadrunners 53% → 79% (+25 pts) · Drive 21 in Drive X-Ray
UTSA Roadrunners won after falling as low as 28% (Q2 13:58).
Game DNA
| Navy | Points added | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | Passingdropbacks | -7.1 |
| +5.9 | Rushingdesigned runs | -5.5 |
| +21.4 | Explosive plays5 plays · 7 plays | +24.7 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -3.5 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +3.3 |
| -3.6 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +2.9 |
| +4.3 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 3 · 2 of 4 | +0.7 |
| +23.0 | All plays | +19.0 |
The biggest single gap: rushing, worth about 11.4 points to Navy Midshipmen. The final margin was 4.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
UTSA Roadrunners closed as the market favourite at 66% and won.
The line moved toward Navy Midshipmen before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Navy +6.5 (+102)
Navy +5.5 (-110)
UTSA -275 70%
UTSA -222 66%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts47
- Completion %46.8%
- Passing yards439
- Yards per attempt9.3
- TD–INT4–1
- Rushing yards50528th
- Season line102 carries, 505 yds, 7 TD
- Receiving yards165369th
- Season line3 catches, 165 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles4286th
- Attempts182
- Completion %68.7%33rd
- Passing yards1,21998th
- Yards per attempt6.7180th
- TD–INT7–2
- Rushing yards48434th
- Season line78 carries, 484 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards269156th
- Season line18 catches, 269 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles4643rd
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 14, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Navy | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateNavy offense vs UTSA defense | 45.3%43rd | 43.6%77th |
| Early-down success rateUTSA offense vs Navy defense | 36.5%9th | 45.8%36th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateNavy offense vs UTSA defense | 41.3%66th | 36.6%48th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateUTSA offense vs Navy defense | 50.0%121st | 38.0%87th |
| Explosive play rateNavy offense vs UTSA defense | 5.7%95th | 4.6%13th |
| Explosive play rateUTSA offense vs Navy defense | 5.8%40th | 4.8%119th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 27.3%136th-highest | 48.9%85th-highest |
On 3rd down Navy converts 41.3% (66th) against a UTSA defense allowing 36.6% (48th).
On 3rd down UTSA converts 38.0% (87th) against a Navy defense allowing 50.0% (121st).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Navy | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Brian Newberry | Jeff Traylor |
| Tenureat this school | 4th season | 7th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 28–15 | 58–27 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 28–15 | 58–27 |
| Offensive coordinator | Drew Cronic | Rick Bowie |
| Defensive coordinator | Ricky Brown / Eric Lewis | Jess Loepp |
Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Teams
Navy Midshipmen
- Navy Midshipmen team stats
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Navy Midshipmen (Oct 31)
- North Texas Mean Green 49, Navy Midshipmen 39 (Oct 24)
- Tulsa Golden Hurricane 26, Navy Midshipmen 34 (Oct 10)
- Navy Midshipmen 9, Air Force Falcons 14 (Oct 3)
UTSA Roadrunners
More NCAAF games on October 17, 2026
- Florida Atlantic Owls 24, Army Black Knights 56 (Oct 17)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 21, Boston College Eagles 27 (Oct 17)
- Ball State Cardinals 32, Bowling Green Falcons 31 (Oct 17)
- Charleston Southern Buccaneers 0, Clemson Tigers 37 (Oct 17)
- Ohio State Buckeyes 19, Indiana Hoosiers 15 (Oct 17)
- Georgia State Panthers 22, James Madison Dukes 49 (Oct 17)
- Kansas Jayhawks 24, Kansas State Wildcats 35 (Oct 17)
- Mississippi State Bulldogs 0, LSU Tigers 31 (Oct 17)
- Northwestern Wildcats 24, Michigan State Spartans 21 (Oct 17)
- Virginia Cavaliers 13, SMU Mustangs 23 (Oct 17)
- Florida Gators 27, Texas Longhorns 24 (Oct 17)
- Cincinnati Bearcats 42, West Virginia Mountaineers 45 (Oct 17)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 37, Maryland Terrapins 30 (Oct 17)
- UMass Minutemen 18, Buffalo Bulls 25 (Oct 17)
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