Temple Owls vs South Florida Bulls Final — October 3, 2026
TEMOffense2026 regular season to dateUSF
TEMDefenseUSFTEMLast 10 gamesUSFRest & travelrest and travel
TEMRest & travelUSFAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Temple (0-3) visited South Florida (3-0) on Saturday, October 3 at 7:30 PM ET.
Temple has the 38th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 122nd-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, South Florida has the 82nd-ranked offense and the 18th-ranked defense. When Temple has the ball, a 38th-ranked offense (+0.126 EPA per play) meets a 18th-ranked defense (−0.173 allowed); when South Florida has it, a 82nd-ranked offense (−0.013) meets a 122nd-ranked defense (+0.237 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Temple offense is at 42.3% (79th) and the South Florida offense at 43.1% (70th). Temple scores 24.7 points per game (76th) and allows 32.3 (105th); South Florida scores 20.3 (96th) and allows 13.0 (7th).
South Florida closed as a 5.5-point favorite at home against Temple. The spread opened at South Florida -6. The total closed at 50.5, down from 51.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Temple +175, South Florida -220) prices Temple at 35% and South Florida at 65%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Temple Owls 17, South Florida Bulls 13
Temple Owls won by 4.
- Against the closing spread (South Florida Bulls -5.5): Temple Owls covered.
- Combined score 30 vs the closing total of 50.5: Under.
- Temple Owls closed at +175 on the moneyline (a 35% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Temple Owls.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Temple Owls 35%, South Florida Bulls 65%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 0:45 — Temple Owls ball, 1st & 10 at USF 24JoJo Bermudez 24 Yd pass from Ajani Sheppard (Carl Hardin Kick)Temple Owls 48% → 60% (+12 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 7:06 — Temple Owls ball, 3rd & 14 at TEM 21Shotgun #13 A.Sheppard pass complete deep left to #10 J.Freeman caught at TEM50, for 29 yards to the TEM50, out of bounds at TEM50, 1ST DOWNTemple Owls 34% → 47% (+13 pts) · Drive 12 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 4:08 — Temple Owls ball, 3rd & 8 at USF 14Shotgun #13 A.Sheppard rush left for 14 yards gain to the USF00 fumbled by #13 A.Sheppard at USF04 forced by #8 A.Fortenberry recovered by USF #1 C.Hicks at USF00, Touch…South Florida Bulls 49% → 62% (+14 pts) · Drive 12 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 3:08 — Temple Owls ball, 3rd & 7 at USF 34Shotgun #13 A.Sheppard rush middle for 34 yards gain to the USF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:08, 1ST DOWN #98 C.Hardin kick attempt good (H: #7 D.Atton, LS: #97 S.Wolfenden)Temple Owls 34% → 67% (+33 pts) · Drive 16 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:30 — South Florida Bulls ball, 1st & 5 at USF 21Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short left to #1 B.Rodgers thrown to USF38Temple Owls 81% → 100% (+19 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
Temple Owls won after falling as low as 21% (Q4 11:14).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Temple Owls would win 95% of the time (South Florida Bulls 5%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Temple Owls. Here is where that came from.
| Temple | Points added | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| -8.2 | Passingdropbacks | -4.4 |
| +1.8 | Rushingdesigned runs | -1.3 |
| +17.1 | Explosive plays5 plays · 4 plays | +6.0 |
| -3.5 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 1 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +0.7 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -1.4 |
| +0.3 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -1.9 |
| -3.0 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 2 · 1 of 2 | -0.6 |
| +5.3 | All plays | -3.5 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 11.1 points to Temple Owls. The final margin was 4.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
South Florida Bulls closed as the market favourite at 65% and lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Temple +6 (-108)
Temple +5.5 (-110)
South Florida -227 66%
South Florida -220 65%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts58
- Completion %53.4%
- Passing yards539
- Yards per attempt9.3
- TD–INT5–0
- Rushing yards34037th
- Season line60 carries, 340 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards196159th
- Season line8 catches, 196 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles405th
- Attempts91
- Completion %65.9%79th
- Passing yards691168th
- Yards per attempt7.6109th
- TD–INT3–0
- Rushing yards32545th
- Season line51 carries, 325 yds, 5 TD
- Receiving yards197158th
- Season line18 catches, 197 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles2977th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Temple | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateTemple offense vs South Florida defense | 38.9%81st | 42.0%98th |
| Early-down success rateSouth Florida offense vs Temple defense | 44.9%116th | 39.7%68th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateTemple offense vs South Florida defense | 46.9%31st | 34.9%36th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSouth Florida offense vs Temple defense | 55.6%132nd | 42.4%52nd |
| Explosive play rateTemple offense vs South Florida defense | 7.8%45th | 4.1%10th |
| Explosive play rateSouth Florida offense vs Temple defense | 6.5%64th | 5.0%107th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 38.0%129th-highest | 39.1%126th-highest |
On 3rd down Temple converts 46.9% (31st) against a South Florida defense allowing 34.9% (36th).
On 3rd down South Florida converts 42.4% (52nd) against a Temple defense allowing 55.6% (132nd).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Temple | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | K. C. Keeler | Brian Hartline |
| Tenureat this school | 2nd season | 1st season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 6–10 | 4–0 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 18–22 | 4–0 |
| Offensive coordinator | Tyler Walker | Tim Beck |
| Defensive coordinator | Brian Smith | Josh Aldridge |
Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 3 times since 2021: Temple won 1 and South Florida 2.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2023 | Temple 23, South Florida 27 South Florida won | ||
| Nov 5, 2022 | South Florida 28, Temple 54 Temple won | ||
| Oct 23, 2021 | Temple 14, South Florida 34 South Florida won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Temple Owls
- Temple Owls team stats
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- UConn Huskies 34, Temple Owls 20 (Oct 10)
- Army Black Knights 21, Temple Owls 17 (Sep 25)
South Florida Bulls
More NCAAF games on October 3, 2026
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- Michigan Wolverines 14, Minnesota Golden Gophers 20 (Oct 3)
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- Notre Dame Fighting Irish 37, North Carolina Tar Heels 26 (Oct 3)
- Boston College Eagles 16, SMU Mustangs 25 (Oct 3)
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- Stanford Cardinal 3, Wake Forest Demon Deacons 57 (Oct 3)
- Michigan State Spartans 3, Wisconsin Badgers 31 (Oct 3)
- Vanderbilt Commodores 14, Georgia Bulldogs 38 (Oct 3)
- Western Michigan Broncos 20, Buffalo Bulls 17 (Oct 3)
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