Home › Game previews › NCAAF › October 2026 › UTSA Roadrunners at Rice Owls

NCAAF · October 3, 2026

UTSA Roadrunners vs Rice Owls Final — October 3, 2026

UTSA Roadrunners

2-1

Quarterback Owen McCown

FINAL

Rice Owls

0-3

Quarterback Jacurri Brown

Saturday, October 3 · 7:00 PM ET

UTSAOffense2026 regular season to dateRICE

44th+0.088

EPA/play

−0.00176th

93rd40.6%

Success %

51.8%9th

36th32.0

PPG

15.0123rd

UTSADefenseRICE

79th+0.053

EPA/play allowed

+0.278129th

104th46.1%

Success % allowed

42.5%58th

111th33.7

Opp PPG

39.3128th

UTSALast 10 gamesRICE

Game by game

3-1

Last 4

1-3

+24

Net points

-45

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Rest & travelrest and travel

UTSARest & travelRICE

7 days

Days of rest

7 days

186 mi299 km

Travel to the game

Home

Venue

Rice Stadium

About these numbers

2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.

Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

The pre-game matchup

UTSA (2-1) visited Rice (0-3) on Saturday, October 3 at 7:00 PM ET.

UTSA has the 44th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 79th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Rice has the 76th-ranked offense and the 129th-ranked defense. When UTSA has the ball, a 44th-ranked offense (+0.088 EPA per play) meets a 129th-ranked defense (+0.278 allowed); when Rice has it, a 76th-ranked offense (−0.001) meets a 79th-ranked defense (+0.053 allowed).

By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the UTSA offense is at 40.6% (93rd) and the Rice offense at 51.8% (9th). UTSA scores 32.0 points per game (36th) and allows 33.7 (111th); Rice scores 15.0 (123rd) and allows 39.3 (128th).

Rice is 0-3 and 1-2 against the spread; its last game was a 38-24 loss to Fresno State.

UTSA closed as a 12.5-point road favorite, with Rice getting the points at home. The spread opened at UTSA -10.5. The total closed at 56.5, up from 53.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (UTSA -579, Rice +400) prices UTSA at 81% and Rice at 19%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

UTSA Roadrunners 16, Rice Owls 14

UTSA Roadrunners won by 2.

Against the closing spread (Rice Owls +12.5): Rice Owls covered.
Combined score 30 vs the closing total of 56.5: Under.
UTSA Roadrunners closed at -579 on the moneyline (a 81% no-vig market-implied chance).

Before the game: market and G&W

81%Market at the close19%

UTSA RoadrunnersRice Owls

78%Market at the open22%

From open to close the market moved 3 points toward UTSA Roadrunners.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (UTSA Roadrunners 81%, Rice Owls 19%) and moving with every snap until the final.

Biggest swings

Q4 13:35 — Rice Owls ball, 4th & 1 at UTSA 1Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush left for 1 yard gain to the UTSA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:35, 1ST DOWN #49 T.Bauchiero kick attempt good (H: #29 C.Durkin, LS: #51 P.Derich…Rice Owls 13% → 20% (+7 pts) · Drive 16 in Drive X-Ray
Q4 6:57 — UTSA Roadrunners ball, 4th & 8 at RICE 18#92 M.Petro field goal attempt from 36 yards NO GOOD (H: #30 C.Hogan, LS: #60 W.Hodges), clock 06:57Rice Owls 17% → 30% (+12 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
Q4 1:36 — Rice Owls ball, 1st & 10 at RICE 18Shotgun #11 J.Brown sacked for loss of 7 yards to the Rice11 (#15 D.White)UTSA Roadrunners 69% → 79% (+10 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
Q4 0:50 — Rice Owls ball, 4th & 13 at RICE 15Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush left for 8 yards gain to the Rice23 (#15 D.White), TURNOVER ON DOWNSUTSA Roadrunners 83% → 95% (+12 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
Q4 0:21 — UTSA Roadrunners ball, 2nd & 11 at RICE 24Kneel down by UTSA at Rice26 for loss of 2 yardsUTSA Roadrunners 91% → 100% (+9 pts) · Drive 21 in Drive X-Ray

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

59%UTSA

Chance to win, from chances created

41%RICE

15.0

Expected points

13.5

Final score

Based on the quality of each team's plays, UTSA Roadrunners would win 59% of the time (Rice Owls 41%). The chances each team created were close to even.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.

UTSA	Points added	Rice
-6.9	Passingdropbacks	+1.5
+11.7	Rushingdesigned runs	-14.5
+3.1	Explosive plays2 plays · 3 plays	+13.7
-9.4	Turnovers2 giveaways · 1 giveaways	-5.1
-3.0	Special teamskicks, punts and returns	-4.1
+3.6	Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball	+1.8
-5.0	Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 4 · 1 of 1	+2.6
-5.8	All plays	-4.2

Bar left: UTSA gainedBar right: Rice gained

The biggest single gap: rushing, worth about 26.2 points to UTSA Roadrunners. The final margin was 2.

Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.

Line review

UTSA Roadrunners closed as the market favourite at 81% and won.

The line moved toward UTSA Roadrunners before kickoff, and they won.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Drive X-Ray

Every possession of this game, drive by drive. Hover or tap a drive for the plays.

Every other game: Drive X-Ray.

Market

Closing line and line movement

Spreadmoved 2

OpenRice +10.5 (-110)
UTSA -10.5 (-112)

CloseRice +12.5 (-112)
UTSA -12.5 (-109)

Totalup 3

Open53.5 (o -110 / u -112)

Close56.5 (o -110 / u -110)

Moneyline

OpenUTSA -455 78%
Rice +337 22%

CloseUTSA -579 81%
Rice +400 19%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

Unlock every game with Analytics — $44.44/mo See today’s free game →

Matchup

Players to watch

UTSA

QB · Owen McCown

Attempts122
Completion %68.9%44th
Passing yards862108th
Yards per attempt7.1145th
TD–INT7–1

Leading rusher (RB) · Will Henderson III

Rushing yards30854th
Season line47 carries, 308 yds, 2 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · DJ Allen Jr.

Receiving yards24294th
Season line15 catches, 242 yds, 2 TD

Leading tackler (LB) · Brandon Tucker

Tackles3716th

Rice

QB · Jacurri Brown

Attempts52
Completion %55.8%
Passing yards315
Yards per attempt6.1
TD–INT2–1

Leading rusher (QB) · Jacurri Brown

Rushing yards39915th
Season line71 carries, 399 yds, 2 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Barry Jackson Jr.

Receiving yards89486th
Season line6 catches, 89 yds, 1 TD

Leading tackler (DL) · AJ Brown

Tackles26143rd

Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.

Success by situation

Situation	UTSA	Rice
Early-down success rateUTSA offense vs Rice defense	37.4%94th	34.1%11th
Early-down success rateRice offense vs UTSA defense	42.1%100th	55.3%1st
3rd-down conversion rateUTSA offense vs Rice defense	31.7%109th	53.3%131st
3rd-down conversion rateRice offense vs UTSA defense	44.7%102nd	28.0%122nd
Explosive play rateUTSA offense vs Rice defense	4.8%109th	8.3%104th
Explosive play rateRice offense vs UTSA defense	4.8%23rd	4.9%108th
Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks	52.7%57th-highest	30.1%134th-highest

On 3rd down UTSA converts 31.7% (109th) against a Rice defense allowing 53.3% (131st).

On 3rd down Rice converts 28.0% (122nd) against a UTSA defense allowing 44.7% (102nd).

2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.

Coaching staff

Staff	UTSA	Rice
Head coach	Jeff Traylor	Scott Abell
Tenureat this school	7th season	2nd season
Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below	56–27	6–11
Career recordas an FBS head coach	56–27	6–11
Offensive coordinator	Rick Bowie	Vince Munch
Defensive coordinator	Jess Loepp	Jon Kay

Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.

Head-to-head

The teams have met 5 times since 2021: UTSA won 4 and Rice 1.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Oct 11, 2025	Rice 13, UTSA 61 UTSA won
Oct 12, 2024	UTSA 27, Rice 29 Rice won
Nov 11, 2023	Rice 14, UTSA 34 UTSA won
Nov 19, 2022	UTSA 41, Rice 7 UTSA won
Oct 16, 2021	Rice 0, UTSA 45 UTSA won

Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.

Teams