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NCAAF · October 17, 2026

Virginia Cavaliers vs SMU Mustangs Final — October 17, 2026

Virginia Cavaliers

3-2

Quarterback Beau Pribula

FINAL

SMU Mustangs

3-1

Quarterback Kevin Jennings

Saturday, October 17 · 12:00 PM ET

UVAOffense2026 regular season to dateSMU

63rd+0.075

EPA/play

+0.07662nd

19th51.9%

Success %

47.9%56th

58th27.6

PPG

29.250th

UVADefenseSMU

82nd+0.093

EPA/play allowed

+0.03457th

91st48.4%

Success % allowed

42.9%24th

46th22.4

Opp PPG

26.271st

UVARecent formSMU

Wvs Norfolk State 59-3Lvs West Virginia 27-38Wvs Delaware 42-3L@ Florida State 7-38Wvs Syracuse 28-25

Resultsoldest to newest

W@ Florida State 27-24Wvs UC Davis 56-10L@ Louisville 31-41Wvs Missouri State 34-24Wvs Boston College 25-16

4-2

Record

4-1

—

ATS

1-3-1

—

Over–under

2-3

UVAHome and roadseason to dateSMU

4-1

Home record

3-0

0-1

Road record

1-1

—

Home ATS

1-2

—

Road ATS

0-1-1

—

Home O/U

1-2

—

Road O/U

1-1

UVALast 10 gamesSMU

Game by game

4-2

Last 6

—

+82

Net points

+58

—

Last 5

4-1

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Rest & travelrest and travel

UVARest & travelSMU

7 days

Days of rest

14 days

1,087 mi1,749 km

Travel to the game

Home

−1 hclock change vs home

Time-zone change

Home

Venue

Gerald J. Ford Stadium

About these numbers

2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.

Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

The pre-game matchup

Virginia (3-2) visited SMU (3-1) on Saturday, October 17 at 12:00 PM ET.

Virginia has the 63rd-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 82nd-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, SMU has the 62nd-ranked offense and the 57th-ranked defense. When Virginia has the ball, a 63rd-ranked offense (+0.075 EPA per play) meets a 57th-ranked defense (+0.034 allowed); when SMU has it, a 62nd-ranked offense (+0.076) meets a 82nd-ranked defense (+0.093 allowed).

By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Virginia offense is at 51.9% (19th) and the SMU offense at 47.9% (56th). Virginia scores 27.6 points per game (58th) and allows 22.4 (46th); SMU scores 29.2 (50th) and allows 26.2 (71st).

Virginia is 4-2; its last game was a 28-25 win over Syracuse. SMU is 4-1 and 1-3-1 against the spread; its last game was a 25-16 win over Boston College.

SMU closed as a 10-point favorite at home against Virginia. The spread opened at SMU -6.5. The total closed at 51.5, down from 54.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Virginia +290, SMU -372) prices Virginia at 25% and SMU at 75%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Virginia Cavaliers 13, SMU Mustangs 23

SMU Mustangs won by 10.

Against the closing spread (SMU Mustangs -10): push.
Combined score 36 vs the closing total of 51.5: Under.
SMU Mustangs closed at -372 on the moneyline (a 75% no-vig market-implied chance).

Before the game: market and G&W

25%Market at the close75%

Virginia CavaliersSMU Mustangs

31%Market at the open69%

From open to close the market moved 6 points toward SMU Mustangs.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Virginia Cavaliers 25%, SMU Mustangs 75%) and moving with every snap until the final.

Biggest swings

Q2 10:44 — SMU Mustangs ball, 2nd & 11 at SMU 12No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete deep right to #3 Y.Smith caught at SMU41, for 59 yards to the UVA29 (#17 J.Ross), 1ST DOWNSMU Mustangs 57% → 69% (+12 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
Q2 6:20 — SMU Mustangs ball, 4th & 1 at UVA 6Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short right to #5 R.Pittman Jr. caught at UVA06, for 6 yards to the UVA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:20, 1ST DOWN #97 B.Baird kick a…SMU Mustangs 68% → 77% (+9 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
Q3 6:27 — SMU Mustangs ball, 1st & 10 at UVA 47No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass incomplete short right to #18 T.Melin Öhrström thrown to SMU25Virginia Cavaliers 11% → 21% (+10 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
Q3 4:57 — SMU Mustangs ball, 4th & 8 at UVA 42No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Raphael rush right for 21 yards gain to the UVA21 (#14 F.Camac), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSMU Mustangs 77% → 86% (+10 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
Q4 12:22 — SMU Mustangs ball, 3rd & 10 at UVA 37Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short right to #2 J.Hale caught at UVA25, for 37 yards to the UVA00 QB hurried by #16 M.Fobbs-White TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:22, 1…SMU Mustangs 81% → 92% (+11 pts) · Drive 13 in Drive X-Ray

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Game DNA

Virginia	Points added	SMU
+0.4	Passingdropbacks	-3.4
+2.0	Rushingdesigned runs	-3.4
+4.3	Explosive plays3 plays · 4 plays	+15.7
+0.0	Turnovers1 giveaways · 0 giveaways	+0.0
+2.8	Special teamskicks, punts and returns	+1.7
-2.8	Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball	-5.0
-0.1	Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 2 · 1 of 3	-1.0
+6.6	All plays	+4.5

Bar left: Virginia gainedBar right: SMU gained

The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 11.4 points to SMU Mustangs. The final margin was 10.

Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.

The official play, graded

The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.

Official playVirginia Cavaliers +9.5 -1102.50uLOSS -2.75u

Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.

Line review

SMU Mustangs closed as the market favourite at 75% and won.

The line moved toward SMU Mustangs before kickoff, and they won.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Drive X-Ray

Every possession of this game, drive by drive. Hover or tap a drive for the plays.

Every other game: Drive X-Ray.

Market

Closing line and line movement

Spreadmoved 3.5

OpenSMU -6.5 (-122)
Virginia +6.5 (-100)

CloseSMU -10 (-106)
Virginia +10 (-115)

Totaldown 3

Open54.5 (o -110 / u -110)

Close51.5 (o -110 / u -110)

Moneyline

OpenVirginia +210 31%
SMU -260 69%

CloseVirginia +290 25%
SMU -372 75%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Players to watch

Virginia

QB · Beau Pribula

Attempts137
Completion %66.4%63rd
Passing yards1,080128th
Yards per attempt7.991st
TD–INT13–1

Leading rusher (RB) · Jekail Middlebrook

Rushing yards33788th
Season line67 carries, 337 yds, 3 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Kameron Courtney

Receiving yards204267th
Season line18 catches, 204 yds, 2 TD

Leading tackler (CB) · Jacobie Henderson

Tackles35188th

SMU

QB · Kevin Jennings

Attempts156
Completion %75.0%3rd
Passing yards1,61327th
Yards per attempt10.39th
TD–INT14–5

Leading rusher (RB) · Kendrick Raphael

Rushing yards41850th
Season line77 carries, 418 yds, 6 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Yamir Knight

Receiving yards36770th
Season line29 catches, 367 yds, 2 TD

Leading tackler (S) · Tyren Polley Jr.

Tackles30307th

Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 14, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.

Success by situation

Situation	Virginia	SMU
Early-down success rateVirginia offense vs SMU defense	51.6%5th	43.2%72nd
Early-down success rateSMU offense vs Virginia defense	45.9%104th	43.9%61st
3rd-down conversion rateVirginia offense vs SMU defense	26.4%130th	29.6%9th
3rd-down conversion rateSMU offense vs Virginia defense	40.0%68th	50.9%16th
Explosive play rateVirginia offense vs SMU defense	5.2%108th	6.0%45th
Explosive play rateSMU offense vs Virginia defense	7.0%77th	9.2%14th
Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks	44.1%108th-highest	50.7%70th-highest

On 3rd down Virginia converts 26.4% (130th) against a SMU defense allowing 29.6% (9th).

On 3rd down SMU converts 50.9% (16th) against a Virginia defense allowing 40.0% (68th).

2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.

Coaching staff

Staff	Virginia	SMU
Head coach	Tony Elliott	Rhett Lashlee
Tenureat this school	5th season	5th season
Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below	26–28	42–18
Career recordas an FBS head coach	26–28	42–18
Offensive coordinator	Desmond Kitchings	Garin Justice / D'Eriq King / Rob Likens
Defensive coordinator	John Rudzinski	Maurice Crum Jr. / Rickey Hunley Jr.

Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.

Head-to-head

The teams have met 1 time since 2021: Virginia won 0 and SMU 1.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Nov 23, 2024	SMU 33, Virginia 7 SMU won

Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.

Teams