Syracuse Orange vs Virginia Cavaliers Final — October 10, 2026
SYROffense2026 regular season to dateUVA
SYRDefenseUVASYRRecent formUVASYRHome and roadseason to dateUVASYRLast 10 gamesUVARest & travelrest and travel
SYRRest & travelUVAAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Syracuse (1-2) visited Virginia (2-2) on Saturday, October 10 at 7:30 PM ET.
Syracuse has the 84th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 75th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Virginia has the 53rd-ranked offense and the 71st-ranked defense. When Syracuse has the ball, a 84th-ranked offense (+0.034 EPA per play) meets a 71st-ranked defense (+0.062 allowed); when Virginia has it, a 53rd-ranked offense (+0.110) meets a 75th-ranked defense (+0.073 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Syracuse offense is at 44.7% (89th) and the Virginia offense at 51.8% (22nd). Syracuse scores 24.3 points per game (77th) and allows 29.7 (89th); Virginia scores 27.5 (62nd) and allows 21.8 (44th).
Syracuse is 2-2 and 1-3 against the spread; its last game was a 42-41 win over UConn. Virginia is 3-2; its last game was a 38-7 loss to Florida State.
Virginia closed as a 14-point favorite at home against Syracuse. The spread opened at Virginia -6.5. The total closed at 49.5, down from 50.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Syracuse +425, Virginia -650) prices Syracuse at 18% and Virginia at 82%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Syracuse Orange 25, Virginia Cavaliers 28
Virginia Cavaliers won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Virginia Cavaliers -14): Syracuse Orange covered.
- Combined score 53 vs the closing total of 49.5: Over.
- Virginia Cavaliers closed at -650 on the moneyline (a 82% no-vig market-implied chance).
Market
Closing line and line movement
Syracuse +6.5 (-102)
Syracuse +14 (-108)
Virginia -260 69%
Virginia -650 82%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Rushing yards28798th
- Season line46 carries, 287 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards43422nd
- Season line29 catches, 434 yds, 5 TD
- Tackles26268th
- Attempts118
- Completion %67.8%48th
- Passing yards961122nd
- Yards per attempt8.180th
- TD–INT12–1
- Rushing yards242140th
- Season line50 carries, 242 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards166294th
- Season line15 catches, 166 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles26268th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 256 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Syracuse | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateSyracuse offense vs Virginia defense | 38.5%118th | 45.5%100th |
| Early-down success rateVirginia offense vs Syracuse defense | 40.6%39th | 51.4%9th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSyracuse offense vs Virginia defense | 47.9%29th | 41.9%85th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateVirginia offense vs Syracuse defense | 33.3%26th | 25.6%128th |
| Explosive play rateSyracuse offense vs Virginia defense | 8.9%20th | 7.4%89th |
| Explosive play rateVirginia offense vs Syracuse defense | 8.3%108th | 5.2%106th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 52.1%59th-highest | 45.5%102nd-highest |
On 3rd down Syracuse converts 47.9% (29th) against a Virginia defense allowing 41.9% (85th).
On 3rd down Virginia converts 25.6% (128th) against a Syracuse defense allowing 33.3% (26th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Syracuse | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Fran Brown | Tony Elliott |
| Tenureat this school | 3rd season | 5th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 15–14 | 25–28 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 15–14 | 25–28 |
| Offensive coordinator | Mike Johnson / Jeff Nixon | Desmond Kitchings |
| Defensive coordinator | Vince Kehres | John Rudzinski |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 1 time since 2021: Syracuse won 1 and Virginia 0.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2022 | Virginia 20, Syracuse 22 Syracuse won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Syracuse Orange
- Syracuse Orange team stats
- SMU Mustangs at Syracuse Orange (Oct 31)
- Syracuse Orange 31, North Carolina Tar Heels 30 (Oct 24)
- Louisville Cardinals 34, Syracuse Orange 26 (Oct 17)
- Syracuse Orange 42, UConn Huskies 41 (Oct 3)
Virginia Cavaliers
More NCAAF games on October 10, 2026
- Tulane Green Wave 17, Army Black Knights 20 (Oct 10)
- Sacramento State Hornets 10, Bowling Green Falcons 38 (Oct 10)
- Texas A&M Aggies 6, Missouri Tigers 27 (Oct 10)
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons 38, NC State Wolfpack 14 (Oct 10)
- Indiana Hoosiers 20, Nebraska Cornhuskers 17 (Oct 10)
- UCF Knights 28, Oklahoma State Cowboys 42 (Oct 10)
- North Carolina Tar Heels 21, Pittsburgh Panthers 17 (Oct 10)
- Arizona Wildcats 52, West Virginia Mountaineers 31 (Oct 10)
- Ball State Cardinals 14, Northwestern Wildcats 45 (Oct 10)
- South Carolina Gamecocks 38, Florida Gators 19 (Oct 10)
- Old Dominion Monarchs 10, Appalachian State Mountaineers 3 (Oct 10)
- Rice Owls 12, East Carolina Pirates 28 (Oct 10)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 20, UMass Minutemen 19 (Oct 10)
- Eastern Michigan Eagles 25, Akron Zips 23 (Oct 10)
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