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NCAAF · October 31, 2026

Virginia Cavaliers vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons Preview & Odds — October 31, 2026

Virginia Cavaliers

3-4

Quarterback Beau Pribula

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

6-1

Quarterback Gio Lopez

Saturday, October 31 · 3:45 PM ET

UVAOffense2026 regular season to dateWAKE

66th+0.061

EPA/play

+0.3015th

34th49.7%

Success %

52.0%14th

81st23.9

PPG

37.49th

UVADefenseWAKE

71st+0.083

EPA/play allowed

−0.02141st

63rd46.5%

Success % allowed

47.1%72nd

37th22.0

Opp PPG

19.427th

UVARecent formWAKE

Wvs Delaware 42-3L@ Florida State 7-38Wvs Syracuse 28-25L@ SMU 13-23Lvs Duke 16-19

Resultsoldest to newest

Lvs Miami 20-33W@ Louisville 30-27Wvs Stanford 57-3W@ NC State 38-14W@ California 41-7

4-4

Record

6-1

—

ATS

5-2

—

Over–under

3-4

UVAHome and roadseason to dateWAKE

4-2

Home record

2-1

0-2

Road record

4-0

—

Home ATS

2-1

—

Road ATS

3-1

—

Home O/U

2-1

—

Road O/U

1-3

UVALast 10 gamesWAKE

Game by game

4-4

Last 8

—

+69

Net points

+126

—

Last 7

6-1

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Rest & travelrest and travel

UVARest & travelWAKE

8 days

Days of rest

14 days

163 mi262 km

Travel to the game

Home

Venue

Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium

About these numbers

2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.

Margin of each of the last 8 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

Matchup preview

Virginia (3-4) visits Wake Forest (6-1) on Saturday, October 31 at 3:45 PM ET.

Virginia has the 66th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 71st-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Wake Forest has the 5th-ranked offense and the 41st-ranked defense. When Virginia has the ball, a 66th-ranked offense (+0.061 EPA per play) meets a 41st-ranked defense (−0.021 allowed); when Wake Forest has it, a 5th-ranked offense (+0.301) meets a 71st-ranked defense (+0.083 allowed).

By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Virginia offense is at 49.7% (34th) and the Wake Forest offense at 52.0% (14th). Virginia scores 23.9 points per game (81st) and allows 22.0 (37th); Wake Forest scores 37.4 (9th) and allows 19.4 (27th).

Virginia is 4-4; its last game was a 19-16 loss to Duke. Wake Forest is 6-1 and 5-2 against the spread; its last game was a 41-7 win over California.

Wake Forest is a 12.5-point favorite at home against Virginia. The spread opened at Wake Forest -13.5. The total is 49.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Virginia +400, Wake Forest -530) prices Virginia at 19% and Wake Forest at 81%.

Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.

Market

Odds and line movement

Spreadmoved 1

OpenWake Forest -13.5 (-107)
Virginia +13.5 (-112)

NowWake Forest -12.5 (-110)
Virginia +12.5 (-110)

Totalno move

Open49.5 (o -110 / u -110)

Now49.5 (o -109 / u -112)

Moneyline

OpenVirginia +408 19%
Wake Forest -550 81%

NowVirginia +400 19%
Wake Forest -530 81%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Best available prices on Oct 28

Virginia +12.5-104Novig
Wake Forest -12.5+100Novig
Over 49.5+100Novig
Under 49.5-104Kalshi
Virginia+410ProphetX
Wake Forest-441Novig

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Players to watch

Virginia

QB · Beau Pribula

Attempts183
Completion %65.0%76th
Passing yards1,375137th
Yards per attempt7.5109th
TD–INT13–2

Leading rusher (RB) · Jekail Middlebrook

Rushing yards51360th
Season line105 carries, 513 yds, 4 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Da'Shawn Martin

Receiving yards247306th
Season line17 catches, 247 yds, 5 TD

Leading tackler (CB) · Jacobie Henderson

Tackles40287th

Wake Forest

QB · Gio Lopez

Attempts187
Completion %68.4%
Passing yards1,710
Yards per attempt9.1
TD–INT15–1

Leading rusher (RB) · Ty Clark III

Rushing yards328170th
Season line70 carries, 328 yds, 4 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Carlos Hernandez

Receiving yards7209th
Season line49 catches, 720 yds, 4 TD

Leading tackler (LB) · Vincent Firenze

Tackles49144th

Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 264 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 28, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.

Success by situation

Situation	Virginia	Wake Forest
Early-down success rateVirginia offense vs Wake Forest defense	48.3%13th	42.2%55th
Early-down success rateWake Forest offense vs Virginia defense	43.2%70th	46.2%31st
3rd-down conversion rateVirginia offense vs Wake Forest defense	28.0%131st	39.0%56th
3rd-down conversion rateWake Forest offense vs Virginia defense	35.7%35th	50.0%17th
Explosive play rateVirginia offense vs Wake Forest defense	5.5%112th	3.7%5th
Explosive play rateWake Forest offense vs Virginia defense	7.7%98th	8.7%19th
Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks	42.9%120th-highest	53.7%39th-highest

On 3rd down Virginia converts 28.0% (131st) against a Wake Forest defense allowing 39.0% (56th).

On 3rd down Wake Forest converts 50.0% (17th) against a Virginia defense allowing 35.7% (35th).

2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.

Coaching staff

Staff	Virginia	Wake Forest
Head coach	Tony Elliott	Jake Dickert
Tenureat this school	5th season	2nd season
Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below	26–30	15–5
Career recordas an FBS head coach	26–30	38–25
Offensive coordinator	Desmond Kitchings	Rob Ezell
Defensive coordinator	John Rudzinski	Scottie Hazelton

Staff list as of October 27, 6:50 a.m. ET.

Head-to-head

The teams have met 3 times since 2021: Virginia won 1 and Wake Forest 2.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Nov 8, 2025	Wake Forest 16, Virginia 9 Wake Forest won
Sep 7, 2024	Virginia 31, Wake Forest 30 Virginia won
Sep 24, 2021	Wake Forest 37, Virginia 17 Wake Forest won

Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.

Result

After the final: score vs the closing line, Drive X-Ray and the graded official play, if there was one, appear here on this same page.

Teams