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NHL · October 6, 2026

Carolina Hurricanes vs Montréal Canadiens Final — October 6, 2026

Carolina Hurricanes

1-1-1

Goalie Brandon Bussi Likely

FINAL

Montréal Canadiens

1-0-1

Goalie Jakub Dobes Likely

Tuesday, October 6 · 7:10 PM ET

CARStarting goaliesMTL

This season

Starts

.872

Sv%

.862

.750

HDSv%

.750

−1.6

GSAx

−2.1

Last season

Starts

.895

Sv%

.901

.822

HDSv%

.827

+0.9

GSAx

+16.8

CAROffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)MTL

2nd3.61

GF/G

3.456th

4th9.11

PP GF/60

8.618th

CARDefenseMTL

4th2.93

GA/G

3.1218th

13th7.23

PK GA/60

7.6418th

CARTeamMTL

2nd68.9%

Pts%

64.6%5th

2nd56.4%

xGF%

48.8%20th

1st59.8%

CF%

48.6%23rd

8th53.7%

HDCF%

46.4%24th

CAR5-on-5MTL

1st3.06

xGF/60

2.6110th

7th2.37

xGA/60

2.7429th

24th8.9%

Sh%

11.3%1st

26th89.5%

Sv%

90.6%14th

13th116.5

CF/60 (both)

114.322nd

21st−0.08

GAx/G

+0.246th

19th−0.06

GSAx/G

+0.285th

17th10.5%

Sh%

12.3%2nd

26th88.6%

Sv%

89.5%18th

1st57.9%

xGF% (L20)

49.6%19th

CARSpecial teamsMTL

9th8.18

PP xG/60

7.6014th

4th83.8

PP FF/60

72.726th

18th4.7

PP min/G

4.811th

3rd6.47

PK xGA/60

8.5129th

13th4.6

PK min/G

5.027th

CARRecent formMTL

OTLvs FLA 0-1Lvs WSH 2-5W@ PHI 3-2

Resultsoldest to newest

W@ TOR 3-2OTL@ PIT 5-6

Game by game

1-1-1

Record

1-0-1

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel

CARRest & travelMTL

3 days

Days of rest

3 days

395 mi636 km

Travel to the game

Home

CARKey injuriesMTL

Seth Jarvis CIR

Players out or limited

None listed

About these numbers

Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.

Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.

2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.

Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

No key players listed.

Key players only. Injury report as of October 6, 9:40 a.m. ET.

The pre-game matchup

The Hurricanes (1-1-1) visited the Canadiens (1-0-1) on Tuesday, October 6 at 7:10 PM ET.

Last season (2025-26), the Hurricanes scored 3.61 goals per game (2nd of 32) and allowed 2.93 (4th). The Canadiens scored 3.45 goals per game (6th of 32) and allowed 3.12 (18th). The Hurricanes earned 68.9% of available standings points (2nd) and the Canadiens 64.6% (5th).

Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Hurricanes 56.4% (2nd), Canadiens 48.8% (20th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Hurricanes 59.8% (1st), Canadiens 48.6% (23rd). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Hurricanes 53.7% (8th), Canadiens 46.4% (24th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.

The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Hurricanes -130, Canadiens +110) prices the Hurricanes at 54% and the Canadiens at 46%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Carolina Hurricanes 6, Montréal Canadiens 4

Carolina Hurricanes won by 2.

Against the closing spread (Montréal Canadiens +1.5): Carolina Hurricanes covered.
Combined score 10 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
Carolina Hurricanes closed at -130 on the moneyline (a 54% no-vig market-implied chance).

Actual result

Final

Carolina Hurricanes 6
Montréal Canadiens 4

Decided

In regulation

Carolina Hurricanes won

Lead changes

Before the game: market and G&W

54%Market at the close46%

Carolina HurricanesMontréal Canadiens

51%Market at the open49%

From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Carolina Hurricanes.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Carolina Hurricanes 54%, Montréal Canadiens 46%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.

Biggest swings

1st 12:54 — Montréal Canadiens goal (2-3)Montréal Canadiens 47% → 64% (+17 pts)
2nd 3:56 — Carolina Hurricanes goal (3-3)Carolina Hurricanes 36% → 55% (+19 pts)
2nd 13:24 — Carolina Hurricanes goal (4-3)Carolina Hurricanes 53% → 75% (+22 pts)

Carolina Hurricanes won after falling as low as 31% (1st 19:42).

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

76%CAR

Share of G&W replays won

24%MTL

3.3

Expected goals

1.5

Final score

Based on the quality of chances each team created, Carolina Hurricanes won 76% of G&W replays (Montréal Canadiens 24%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above favoured Carolina Hurricanes. Here is where that came from.

Hurricanes	Goals	Canadiens
2.3	5-on-5 chancesexpected goals	0.8
0.5	Power-play chancesexpected goals	0.4
0.5	Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed	0.3
3.3	Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result	1.5
0.0	Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result	0.6
0.5	Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above	0.1
+1.7	Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots	+1.9
-1.9	Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Brandon Bussi 16/20 · Jakub Dobes 28/33	-1.7
1	Empty-net goals	0

Bar left: Hurricanes gainedBar right: Canadiens gained

How the margin was built, from Carolina Hurricanes's side:

Chances +1.2Finishing & goaltending -0.2Empty net +1Carolina Hurricanes by 2

The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.

Line review

Carolina Hurricanes closed as the market favourite at 54% and won.

The line moved toward Carolina Hurricanes before puck drop, and they won.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market

Closing line and line movement

Puck lineno move

OpenCanadiens +1.5 (-270)
Hurricanes -1.5 (+200)

CloseCanadiens +1.5 (-240)
Hurricanes -1.5 (+190)

Totalno move

Open6.5 (o -100 / u -120)

Close6.5 (o +105 / u -127)

Moneyline

OpenHurricanes -114 51%
Canadiens -106 49%

CloseHurricanes -130 54%
Canadiens +110 46%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Head-to-head

The teams have met 21 times since 2018-19: the Hurricanes won 14 and the Canadiens 7.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Mar 29, 2026	Canadiens 3, Hurricanes 1 Canadiens won
Mar 24, 2026	Hurricanes 2, Canadiens 5 Canadiens won	Hurricanes -125 underdog won	6.5 over
Jan 1, 2026	Canadiens 7, Hurricanes 5 Canadiens won	Hurricanes -166 underdog won	6 over
Apr 16, 2025	Hurricanes 2, Canadiens 4 Canadiens won	Canadiens -152 favorite won	6 push
Mar 28, 2025	Canadiens 1, Hurricanes 4 Hurricanes won	Hurricanes -347 favorite won	5.5 under

Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.

Teams