St Louis Blues vs Chicago Blackhawks Final — October 6, 2026
STLStarting goaliesCHI
STLOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)CHISTLDefenseCHISTLTeamCHISTL5-on-5CHISTLSpecial teamsCHISTLRecent formCHIInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
STLRest & travelCHISTLKey injuriesCHIAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
No key players listed.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 6, 9:40 a.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Blues (1-1-0) visited the Blackhawks (0-3-0) on Tuesday, October 6 at 8:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Blues scored 2.82 goals per game (25th of 32) and allowed 3.15 (19th). The Blackhawks scored 2.60 goals per game (31st of 32) and allowed 3.35 (27th). The Blues earned 52.4% of available standings points (22nd) and the Blackhawks 43.9% (31st).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Blues 49.5% (19th), Blackhawks 43.2% (32nd). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Blues 48.2% (25th), Blackhawks 45.6% (30th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Blues 45.4% (27th), Blackhawks 43.2% (30th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 5.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Blues -144, Blackhawks +120) prices the Blues at 56% and the Blackhawks at 44%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
St Louis Blues 2, Chicago Blackhawks 4
Chicago Blackhawks won by 2.
- Against the closing spread (Chicago Blackhawks +1.5): Chicago Blackhawks covered.
- Combined score 6 vs the closing total of 5.5: Over.
- Chicago Blackhawks closed at +120 on the moneyline (a 44% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Chicago Blackhawks 4
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 5 points toward St Louis Blues.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (St Louis Blues 56%, Chicago Blackhawks 44%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 15:38 — St Louis Blues goal (1-0)St Louis Blues 56% → 72% (+16 pts)
- 2nd 5:40 — Chicago Blackhawks goal (1-1)Chicago Blackhawks 28% → 47% (+19 pts)
- 2nd 7:40 — Chicago Blackhawks goal (1-2)Chicago Blackhawks 45% → 66% (+21 pts)
Chicago Blackhawks won after falling as low as 26% (2nd 5:37).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, St Louis Blues won 64% of G&W replays (Chicago Blackhawks 36%). The result went the other way from the chances each team created.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured St Louis Blues. Here is where that came from.
| Blues | Goals | Blackhawks |
|---|---|---|
| 1.8 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 1.0 |
| 0.4 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.3 |
| 0.0 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.2 |
| 2.2 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 1.5 |
| 0.6 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.0 |
| 0.5 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.3 |
| -0.8 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | +0.6 |
| -0.6 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Joel Hofer 17/19 · Spencer Knight 26/28 | +0.8 |
| 0 | Empty-net goals | 2 |
How the margin was built, from Chicago Blackhawks's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
St Louis Blues closed as the market favourite at 56% and lost.
The line moved toward St Louis Blues before puck drop, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Blues -1.5 (+192)
Blues -1.5 (+174)
Blackhawks -102 48%
Blackhawks +120 44%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 28 times since 2018-19: the Blues won 19 and the Blackhawks 9.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Blues 5, Blackhawks 3 Blues won | ||
| Jan 7, 2026 | Blues 3, Blackhawks 7 Blackhawks won | Blues -118 underdog won | 5.5 over |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Blackhawks 2, Blues 3 Blues won | Blackhawks -115 underdog won | 5.5 under |
| Oct 15, 2025 | Blackhawks 8, Blues 3 Blackhawks won | Blues -250 underdog won | 6 over |
| Mar 22, 2025 | Blackhawks 1, Blues 4 Blues won | Blues -330 favorite won | 5.5 under |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
St Louis Blues
- St Louis Blues team stats
- Montréal Canadiens 2, St Louis Blues 0 (Oct 27)
- Carolina Hurricanes 4, St Louis Blues 0 (Oct 24)
- Vegas Golden Knights 2, St Louis Blues 6 (Oct 22)
Chicago Blackhawks
More NHL games on October 6, 2026
- Minnesota Wild 2, Buffalo Sabres 3 (Oct 6)
- Ottawa Senators 3, Detroit Red Wings 5 (Oct 6)
- Carolina Hurricanes 6, Montréal Canadiens 4 (Oct 6)
- Utah Mammoth 5, New Jersey Devils 3 (Oct 6)
- Nashville Predators 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 5 (Oct 6)
- New York Islanders 2, New York Rangers 5 (Oct 6)
- Vegas Golden Knights 6, Seattle Kraken 2 (Oct 6)
- Florida Panthers 2, Los Angeles Kings 1 (Oct 6)
Dig deeper
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