New York Islanders vs New York Rangers Final — October 6, 2026
NYIStarting goaliesNYR
NYIOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)NYRNYIDefenseNYRNYITeamNYRNYI5-on-5NYRNYISpecial teamsNYRNYIRecent formNYRInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
NYIRest & travelNYRNYIKey injuriesNYRAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
No key players listed.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 6, 9:40 a.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Islanders (1-1-0) visited the Rangers (3-1-0) on Tuesday, October 6 at 7:40 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Islanders scored 2.84 goals per game (24th of 32) and allowed 2.94 (7th). The Rangers scored 2.90 goals per game (23rd of 32) and allowed 3.05 (13th). The Islanders earned 55.5% of available standings points (19th) and the Rangers 47.0% (29th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Islanders 47.9% (24th), Rangers 48.4% (23rd). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Islanders 49.0% (18th), Rangers 48.9% (20th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Islanders 45.5% (26th), Rangers 49.0% (17th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 5.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Islanders +133, Rangers -157) prices the Islanders at 41% and the Rangers at 59%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
New York Islanders 2, New York Rangers 5
New York Rangers won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (New York Rangers -1.5): New York Rangers covered.
- Combined score 7 vs the closing total of 5.5: Over.
- New York Rangers closed at -157 on the moneyline (a 59% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
New York Rangers 5
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward New York Rangers.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (New York Islanders 41%, New York Rangers 59%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 6:40 — New York Rangers goal (0-1)New York Rangers 58% → 73% (+15 pts)
- 2nd 4:52 — New York Islanders goal (2-2)New York Islanders 25% → 43% (+18 pts)
- 2nd 17:07 — New York Rangers goal (2-3)New York Rangers 56% → 80% (+23 pts)
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, New York Rangers won 72% of G&W replays (New York Islanders 28%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured New York Rangers. Here is where that came from.
| Islanders | Goals | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| 1.3 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 1.7 |
| 0.7 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 1.7 |
| 0.0 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.3 |
| 2.0 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 3.7 |
| 0.2 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.0 |
| -0.0 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -0.7 |
| +0.7 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Semyon Varlamov 19/22 · Igor Shesterkin 17/19 | +0.0 |
| 0 | Empty-net goals | 2 |
How the margin was built, from New York Rangers's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
New York Rangers closed as the market favourite at 59% and won.
The line moved toward New York Rangers before puck drop, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Islanders +1.5 (-205)
Islanders +1.5 (-206)
Rangers -141 56%
Rangers -157 59%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 35 times since 2018-19: the Islanders won 18 and the Rangers 17.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | Islanders 2, Rangers 1 Islanders won | Islanders -142 favorite won | 6 under |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Rangers 2, Islanders 5 Islanders won | Islanders -150 favorite won | 6.5 over |
| Dec 27, 2025 | Rangers 0, Islanders 2 Islanders won | Rangers -115 underdog won | 5.5 under |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Islanders 5, Rangers 0 Islanders won | Rangers -160 underdog won | 6 under |
| Apr 10, 2025 | Rangers 9, Islanders 2 Rangers won | Islanders -120 underdog won | 6 over |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
New York Islanders
- New York Islanders team stats
- New York Islanders 4, Nashville Predators 3 (Oct 27)
- New York Islanders 3, Dallas Stars 6 (Oct 25)
- Los Angeles Kings 3, New York Islanders 2 (Oct 22)
New York Rangers
- New York Rangers team stats
- Los Angeles Kings 6, New York Rangers 3 (Oct 26)
- New York Rangers 4, Ottawa Senators 7 (Oct 24)
- New York Rangers 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 5 (Oct 22)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NHL games on October 6, 2026
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- Ottawa Senators 3, Detroit Red Wings 5 (Oct 6)
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- Utah Mammoth 5, New Jersey Devils 3 (Oct 6)
- Nashville Predators 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 5 (Oct 6)
- St Louis Blues 2, Chicago Blackhawks 4 (Oct 6)
- Vegas Golden Knights 6, Seattle Kraken 2 (Oct 6)
- Florida Panthers 2, Los Angeles Kings 1 (Oct 6)
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