Minnesota Wild vs Buffalo Sabres Final — October 6, 2026
MINStarting goaliesBUF
MINOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)BUFMINDefenseBUFMINTeamBUFMIN5-on-5BUFMINSpecial teamsBUFMINRecent formBUFInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
MINRest & travelBUFMINKey injuriesBUFAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 6, 9:40 a.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Wild (2-0-0) visited the Sabres (1-1-0) on Tuesday, October 6 at 7:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Wild scored 3.32 goals per game (11th of 32) and allowed 2.93 (4th). The Sabres scored 3.51 goals per game (5th of 32) and allowed 2.94 (7th). The Wild earned 63.4% of available standings points (7th) and the Sabres 66.5% (4th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Wild 50.9% (12th), Sabres 50.5% (14th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Wild 48.2% (24th), Sabres 49.3% (16th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Wild 53.5% (10th), Sabres 51.7% (13th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Wild -112, Sabres -107) prices the Wild at 51% and the Sabres at 49%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Minnesota Wild 2, Buffalo Sabres 3
Buffalo Sabres won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Buffalo Sabres +1.5): Buffalo Sabres covered.
- Combined score 5 vs the closing total of 6.5: Under.
- Buffalo Sabres closed at -107 on the moneyline (a 49% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Buffalo Sabres 3
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Minnesota Wild.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Minnesota Wild 51%, Buffalo Sabres 49%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 2nd 13:53 — Minnesota Wild goal (1-0)Minnesota Wild 53% → 74% (+21 pts)
- 3rd 9:38 — Buffalo Sabres goal (2-2)Buffalo Sabres 18% → 50% (+32 pts)
- OT 4:22 — Buffalo Sabres goal (2-3)Buffalo Sabres 50% → 100% (+50 pts)
Buffalo Sabres won after falling as low as 7% (3rd 3:55).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Buffalo Sabres won 74% of G&W replays (Minnesota Wild 26%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Buffalo Sabres. Here is where that came from.
| Wild | Goals | Sabres |
|---|---|---|
| 1.2 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 2.3 |
| 0.3 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.3 |
| 0.0 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.4 |
| 1.5 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 3.0 |
| 0.4 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.9 |
| 0.2 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.8 |
| +0.1 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -0.9 |
| +0.9 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Jesper Wallstedt 25/28 · Colten Ellis 18/20 | -0.1 |
How the margin was built, from Buffalo Sabres's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Minnesota Wild closed as the market favourite at 51% and lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Wild -1.5 (+210)
Wild -1.5 (+220)
Sabres -109 50%
Sabres -107 49%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 13 times since 2018-19: the Wild won 5 and the Sabres 8.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | Wild 5, Sabres 4 OT Wild won | Sabres -125 underdog won | 6.5 over |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Sabres 3, Wild 2 SO Sabres won | Wild -145 underdog won | 6 under |
| Mar 22, 2025 | Sabres 1, Wild 4 Wild won | Wild -142 favorite won | 5.5 under |
| Nov 27, 2024 | Wild 1, Sabres 0 Wild won | Wild -140 favorite won | 6 under |
| Feb 17, 2024 | Sabres 3, Wild 2 OT Sabres won | Wild -144 underdog won | 6.5 under |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Minnesota Wild
- Minnesota Wild team stats
- Minnesota Wild 3, Utah Mammoth 1 (Oct 27)
- Minnesota Wild 4, Vancouver Canucks 2 (Oct 25)
- Minnesota Wild 5, Seattle Kraken 1 (Oct 24)
Buffalo Sabres
More NHL games on October 6, 2026
- Ottawa Senators 3, Detroit Red Wings 5 (Oct 6)
- Carolina Hurricanes 6, Montréal Canadiens 4 (Oct 6)
- Utah Mammoth 5, New Jersey Devils 3 (Oct 6)
- Nashville Predators 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 5 (Oct 6)
- New York Islanders 2, New York Rangers 5 (Oct 6)
- St Louis Blues 2, Chicago Blackhawks 4 (Oct 6)
- Vegas Golden Knights 6, Seattle Kraken 2 (Oct 6)
- Florida Panthers 2, Los Angeles Kings 1 (Oct 6)
Dig deeper
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